I work in procurement....
about a year ago everyone was saying a recession was coming as orders were not increasing (Im summarizing).
1. This reduction was mainly caused by the moderating of shipment lead times and increased on time rates by the carriers. Companies/Manufacturers didn't need as much inventory and slowed their ordering to draw down on hand inventories.
I work in the electrical utilitiy industry, before covid you could order a very large transformer and get it in about two-three years max. Nowadays certain manufacturers are no longer accepting orders as their capacity for the next 6-7 years is full and entities are still trying or order more.
I have a hard time seeing a real recession in the next year but I do see things slowing down. Home building has been slowing but look at the material and wage cost pressure all companies are seeing. Its not as cheap these days to build a house (however its almost always more expensive than thought).
@OregonSteeler (I live outside of the PDX Metro),
Have you through about the potential that the slowdown in IT staffing is a result of the layoffs happening across the IT services sector (bookface/google/twitter/etc) rather than the general economy?