Recession Coming?

roadrunner said:
To help you out, a recession is a downturn or decrease in economic activity. Yes, a recession is affected by an industry just as an industry is affected by a recession. Some industries boom while others bust in the same timeframe. Those industries experience a recession within its scope in a bust cycle.
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You can copy and paste definitions all you like, your original statement that being in a recession or not depend on what industry we’re talking about, is still false.

Nice try Uncle Joe.
 
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william schmaltz said:
I'm confused by the disdain people have for folks working from home. We have all sorts of industries and people that it makes sense for. Millions of Americans have recalibrated their priorities after 2020. A good part of the labor shortage is because the covid era made them realize more time with family was more important than time at work, commuting, or OT to keep a boss happy that would replace you in a blink of an eye. Moms and Dads spending more time at home and less time chasing the material is a big win for American values. Work from home allows for part time work and a much more manageable work/life balance that most crave. Most companies that offer work from home have stringent task tracking, and with the implementation of Teams, there's far greater accountability than pre-2020. I talk with my supervisor 10x more than I did when in the office. It's better for families, family budgets, corporate budgets, the environment, and hopefully eventually cuts back on urban sprawl.

On a somewhat related note, I tried to get a small vehicle loan this morning on a smoking deal I found last night. Called 7 different local credit unions trying to give them my money. Probably totaled 50+ phone calls from 10am to 2pm. Never did have a human pick up on the other end. Sometime around 2PM I finally got a call back from 1/7. Still have not heard back from the other 6 and don't presume I will. So for all them laid off tech people, there are also a pile of bank jobs waiting in Wasilla, AK to go along with everything else! Maybe if they opened up work from home for reception and loan officers that would attract some employees......
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Can't WFH in construction much but I already miss the mid-Covid traffic. Amazon did their return to office a few weeks ago and 30 minute drives turned into 1.5 hour drives. Big fan of WFH even though I can't really do it, makes traffic better for the rest of us!
 
SteveAndTheCrigBoys said:
Can't WFH in construction much but I already miss the mid-Covid traffic. Amazon did their return to office a few weeks ago and 30 minute drives turned into 1.5 hour drives. Big fan of WFH even though I can't really do it, makes traffic better for the rest of us!
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Our company sent all non-essential employees to "work" from home during covid. What our company seen was a huge drop in productivity. Basically, people working a couple hrs a day and screwing around the rest. It also creates a lot of animosity with people who actually have to come to work. Nothing like someone sending you a message while they are still in their PJ's to go look at something they should be doing. When covid first hit and I actually believed it was dangerous I felt like my life was not as important as theirs. I would be more ok with it if the company cut all of their pay maybe 20% and gave a decent portion of the to the essential workers.
 
I talked to our local building inspector- construction is still booming here in the San Francisco Bay area. It makes sense. It takes about two years for a project to happen so there is still a lag time where people refinanced at the lower rate and have money burning a hole in their pocket.
Knowing that my guess is construction will really feel it in another year.

The other phenomenon that is interesting is there are not very many homes for sale in our area. People are loathe to sell a home when they have a 3% mortgage rate And facing a much higher rate in a new home.



.
 
Beendare said:
The other phenomenon that is interesting is there are not very many homes for sale in our area. People are loathe to sell a home when they have a 3% mortgage rate And facing a much higher rate in a new home.
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I joked with our real estate agent that your going to see people start living in one home their entire life because anyone that refinanced cant afford to sell and anyone that bought from 2020-2022 is going to have PTSD from the process and never want to do it again.
 
Beendare said:
I talked to our local building inspector- construction is still booming here in the San Francisco Bay area. It makes sense. It takes about two years for a project to happen so there is still a lag time where people refinanced at the lower rate and have money burning a hole in their pocket.
Knowing that my guess is construction will really feel it in another year.

The other phenomenon that is interesting is there are not very many homes for sale in our area. People are loathe to sell a home when they have a 3% mortgage rate And facing a much higher rate in a new home.



.
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One of the reasons I like the remodeling scene over the new construction scene is that in times like you describe it seems like people sort of console themselves by doing a kitchen, bathroom, deck, etc on their current home, since they don't see themselves building or buying a different house for a bit. I feel it's a much more consistent market.

Of course, when things slow down everybody doing new construction tries to become a remodeler, but most struggle with the unique challenges associated with really doing remodeling well, so generally it's possible to stay at the front.
 
Beendare said:
The other phenomenon that is interesting is there are not very many homes for sale in our area. People are loathe to sell a home when they have a 3% mortgage rate And facing a much higher rate in a new home.
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Here prices are dropping a bit so not only do people have a low rate but if they bought in the last couple of years now they may have to sell for a little less than they paid. That makes for a lot of people that wont try to sell unless they have to. We still have a housing shortage though so they will keep building.
 
CO’s real estate market is finally starting to seems a little more normal, if that’s possible after what happened over the last 6 years or so. Houses are now averaging 45 days on the market and people are being much more picky. That said if the house is in good location and not Toyo’s trash it still sells in a weekend for usually over ask
 
Yoder said:
Our company sent all non-essential employees to "work" from home during covid. What our company seen was a huge drop in productivity. Basically, people working a couple hrs a day and screwing around the rest. It also creates a lot of animosity with people who actually have to come to work. Nothing like someone sending you a message while they are still in their PJ's to go look at something they should be doing. When covid first hit and I actually believed it was dangerous I felt like my life was not as important as theirs. I would be more ok with it if the company cut all of their pay maybe 20% and gave a decent portion of the to the essential workers.
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Yeah I was WFH for a few months, they did MWF and Tue/Thu splits for the project management team. My productivity at home was not good. Played a TON of golf though, dropped my handicap from a 16 to a 13 that summer.

Totally get the sentiment of people doing WFH seeming to be more "valuable" than the people that went to work everyday. I think most of our crews felt that way. I know I felt it when we went back to full time for the office people and a few stayed on WFH.
 
What does higher prices on everything, higher interest rates, low worker participation and limited quantities of most everything mean ??….HMMM
 
Beendare said:
I talked to our local building inspector- construction is still booming here in the San Francisco Bay area. It makes sense. It takes about two years for a project to happen so there is still a lag time where people refinanced at the lower rate and have money burning a hole in their pocket.
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Which sector/s? Here in the South Bay, lots are of office projects for big tech companies have been put on hold or cancelled. Some guys I play hockey with who are in the trades are suffering as their hours have been cut from “as much overtime as you can handle” to 20-30 hours/week. Residential is still booming though.
 
I live in one of those states that people flocked to over the last couple of years. The influx drove our home prices sky high. Now the housing market has gone stale here because the major moving has already been done. Inflation is bad enough that I've given all my employees raises to try and keep them but their money isn't going as far as it did 2 years ago. In reality they have gone backwards even with the raises. I'd say we are firmly in a recession and the effects of inflation will only get worse.
 
Yoder said:
Our company sent all non-essential employees to "work" from home during covid. What our company seen was a huge drop in productivity. Basically, people working a couple hrs a day and screwing around the rest. It also creates a lot of animosity with people who actually have to come to work. Nothing like someone sending you a message while they are still in their PJ's to go look at something they should be doing. When covid first hit and I actually believed it was dangerous I felt like my life was not as important as theirs. I would be more ok with it if the company cut all of their pay maybe 20% and gave a decent portion of the to the essential workers.
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wife works from home and loves it, nice because any town to work out of and make good money.

Many studies I have seen show productivity increase and over head decrease. She has to log on at a certain time and off at a set time which the system also tracks activity, besides Monday which is a desk day. I notice she is busier than when she was in office, not on the cell phone as much, pry 90% productive.

I’d be interested what metrics your company used to base that claim on. I think a lot about lower expenses, no water cooler talk and no more gossip.

I see at my job we have doers and lazy piles. Don’t think that changes at any level of employment. I was/am? Essential as I’m in agriculture never was sent home. I didn’t feel endangered, but did get a raise when people went home with out Covid tests. I stayed and made the place some big coin.
 
Where I am, the housing market is finally starting to slow a little. Houses are staying on the market for a week before selling with multiple offers. A guy i work with just bought one over a million and they had to decide in minutes to buy as there were other offers coming in. They lost three other houses within hours of looking at them. Oil and gas is still hiring, partially because no one wants the schedule or work when Walmart pays pretty close to the same wage. I think we are going to just dive off the recession cliff. That’s typically how history has shown for Wyoming.
 
rtaylor said:
I live in one of those states that people flocked to over the last couple of years. The influx drove our home prices sky high. Now the housing market has gone stale here because the major moving has already been done. Inflation is bad enough that I've given all my employees raises to try and keep them but their money isn't going as far as it did 2 years ago. In reality they have gone backwards even with the raises. I'd say we are firmly in a recession and the effects of inflation will only get worse.
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People flocked here from all over aswell, I bought three and sold two houses one single and one married, last interest rate hiked hurt, but we built crazy equity in four years. I’d say we have it a recession now too/inflation due to tourists and transplants.
 
ctguenthner said:
wife works from home and loves it, nice because any town to work out of and make good money.

Many studies I have seen show productivity increase and over head decrease. She has to log on at a certain time and off at a set time which the system also tracks activity, besides Monday which is a desk day. I notice she is busier than when she was in office, not on the cell phone as much, pry 90% productive.

I’d be interested what metrics your company used to base that claim on. I think a lot about lower expenses, no water cooler talk and no more gossip.

I see at my job we have doers and lazy piles. Don’t think that changes at any level of employment. I was/am? Essential as I’m in agriculture never was sent home. I didn’t feel endangered, but did get a raise when people went home with out Covid tests. I stayed and made the place some big coin.
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I work for a company that does a lot of construction work for tech companies...Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc. Word from all of them has been that WFH is less productive. If it wasn't, we'd be out of a lot of work. Those companies have paused new construction for a couple years now but are starting projects back up. Lots of factors as to why those companies might prefer in-office attendance other than productivity metrics but that's what they tell us before paying us millions for a new office reno.

I'm sure a lot of people are just as productive or more productive, but it's possible the scale tips the other direction.
 
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