Recession Coming?

[Customweld]

Man I drove up through Emmet last weekend and as I passed the Freeze out hill memorial my stomach sank because I looked out and saw the next place to explode with houses. Like that Avimoor thing north of eagle. Oof.

Gem County is exploding. There is a 157 acre plot that is trying damn hard to break down the minimum lot size down to 1 acre. I live pretty close to Freezeout, trying to get onto the highway n the morning is pretty crazy. It's frustrating to say the least. In 1997, I tore out 5k acres of apple orchards along South Slope, it's all "mini farms" now.

 

[Yoder]

I seen an interview with Elon Musk a few weeks ago. He mentioned a couple things that didn't sound too good with the banking industry. How the new work from home trend is killing commercial real-estate which banks are heavily invested in. Add in skyrocketing interest rates for mortgages which will kill the market. Someone who could have bought a $500k house might only be able to afford a $300k house now. Look how many banks have failed. Bed bath and beyond and The Christmas tree shop just went bankrupt. It doesn't look great. Throw in next year's election and things could get bad. Could be nationwide riots and Covid 20. Future is bright.

 

[MattB]

What is the current definition of a recession ? Aren't you usually in one before you know it after the fact . Looking back.

The most basic and commonly used definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Based on that definition, we would have been in a recession in 3Q22 because GDP was negative in 1Q22 and 2Q22. GDP rebounded to positive in 3Q22-1Q23, but has been declining (1.1% percentage in 1Q23) and will likely go negative in coming quarters.

Economists largely looked past the historical definition for 1H22 because unemployment remained near historical lows and consumer demand/inflation remained high, which was contrary to what typically happens in a recession. Some people call that moving the goal posts, but that IMO is an overly simplistic and even ignorant take.

I do think we will see a recession that meets all those criteria in the next 6-9 months.

 

[Rich M]

All the doom & gloom stuff never helped anyone. Folks pull money out of investments and then they say - see the investments went down. Well, yeah....

We do need a recession to keep the system going along as it should - with highs & lows. The heavy manipulation of the markets and economy has removed a lot of that.

I'm just getting tired of waiting for the recession. Hurry up already!

 

[Lou (Louis)]

Coming?
The good news is that experts say that a recession is not coming.
The bad news is that that’s because it’s already here (and has been for quite awhile).

 

[Doc Holliday]

A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. We already had that (the recession started) long ago, but lucky for the MSM media, most people are not aware of the definition of a recession.

 

[RuggedYogi]

“Perhaps the worst will happen, perhaps not, but until then, look forward to better things” - Seneca

I suspect things will land somewhere between the world ending and everything being fine. I live below my means and don’t give to much attention to the hyperbolic news cycle.

 

[Lou (Louis)]

“Perhaps the worst will happen, perhaps not, but until then, look forward to better things” - Seneca

I suspect things will land somewhere between the world ending and everything being fine. I live below my means and don’t give to much attention to the hyperbolic news cycle.

Considering how his life ended, I’m not sure that Seneca is a good source on the subject.

 

[RuggedYogi]

Considering how his life ended, I’m not sure that Seneca is a good source on the subject.

Haha! Touché

 

[ianpadron]

I hear 150 bank collapses in the near future and the fed is happy about that because they think it will decrease inflation....ymmv.

Let's stick to including sources and quantifiable/defensible data in this thread.

 

[BravoNovember]

I think about this almost daily.

We just sold our first home in 2 days, for almost $90k more than we paid 6years earlier. But we also tripled our mortgage for our new home.
We work in fields that are relatively “safe” but still scary for me. Luckily we drive older vehicles and pay cash and don’t have payments on anything. It sure would be nicer boat for the family, but idk if we’re willing to risk having debt with the uncertainty

 

[Laramie]

Our business supplies many different industries. We supply products all over North America and some to Europe. Overall sales are soft but not terrible. For an example, OEMs that spent about 50k last year are spending about 30K this year. We definitely are not hiring for the first time in about 2 years.

 

[S.Clancy]

Let's stick to including sources and quantifiable/defensible data in this thread.

Well that would be the first time it happened in any thread, but I like the optimism.

 

[MattB]

Let's stick to including sources and quantifiable/defensible data in this thread.

On the internet, if you start a comment with "I hear/I heard", it absolves you of any responsibility for supporting the comment (that is the responsibility of the guy you heard it from - who may or may not actually exist). Same with making a comment disguised as a question.

On a serious note, there have been recent articles citing that there are as many as 200 U.S. Banks that could be at risk of the same sort of depositor-based bank run that sank SVB and FRB due to a large % of uninsured deposits or imbedded losses in their bond portfolios. Hopefully depositors will realize they are both the victims and the perpetrators and stop over-acting to things they read on social media. All this bank failure nonsense can be put behind us. Then we can let other things like commercial real estate exposure which is a real problem play out.

US banking crisis: Close to 190 banks could collapse, according to study

The Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes have eroded the value of bank assets such as government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Vaquero 45]

I have always been able to gauge / tell when we are in a " recession " When women 30 years younger than me start hitting on me . Trust me we been in a recession .

 

[Hnthrdr]

Good buddy works for Goldmansachs, I asked what the hell is going on. He said they are 85% sure the debt limit will be a nothing burger, he said lots of clients are nervous, “time in the market, not timing the market” the next thing he tells me is he is holding lots of cash haha I’d get ready for something to happen

 

[*zap*]

Let's stick to including sources and quantifiable/defensible data in this thread.

That is something I will not do. But it is info from a top federal government source.

 

[The John]

I work in procurement....
about a year ago everyone was saying a recession was coming as orders were not increasing (Im summarizing).
1. This reduction was mainly caused by the moderating of shipment lead times and increased on time rates by the carriers. Companies/Manufacturers didn't need as much inventory and slowed their ordering to draw down on hand inventories.

I work in the electrical utilitiy industry, before covid you could order a very large transformer and get it in about two-three years max. Nowadays certain manufacturers are no longer accepting orders as their capacity for the next 6-7 years is full and entities are still trying or order more.

I have a hard time seeing a real recession in the next year but I do see things slowing down. Home building has been slowing but look at the material and wage cost pressure all companies are seeing. Its not as cheap these days to build a house (however its almost always more expensive than thought).

@OregonSteeler (I live outside of the PDX Metro),
Have you through about the potential that the slowdown in IT staffing is a result of the layoffs happening across the IT services sector (bookface/google/twitter/etc) rather than the general economy?

 

[sacklunch]

Depends on the industry.

A recession doesn’t depend on the industry, some industries are just, by nature, more “recession proof” and won’t see quite the downturn as others.

Unless you work for the MIC, there was certainly a downturn coming for them after AFG, but they made sure they’ve got their new cash cow. Safe to say they won’t feel a thing in a recession.

 

[conley417]

That is something I will not do. But it is info from a top federal government source.

Zap is Hunter Biden