Montana point creep expectation

[160andup]

Yeah the odds on 0 points will tank I think. It will be less than 50% this year I bet due to forums like this. I see MT changing it from 0 points to Random in the future, but if they don't it will continue to drop each year.

The 0 point pool is already just a random draw….?

 

[Rifleman86]

I can virtually guarantee you that three points will not be a lock in 10 years time if trends continue the way they have been. 2 points was the maximum allowed 2 years ago. Just another factor to consider in your calculations.



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We’ll see. I like the fact MT makes you apply every year or you lose your points. I think that will help keep the creep to a minimum. Other than the outfitter bullshit, it’s a pretty good system overall.

As for us discussing the 0 points option affecting odds, I would’ve bet good money we would’ve seen a significant drop in the 0 point odds last year compared to 2021, considering the affects of the outfitter 2 points option, yet the odds actually went UP a small amount. And yes it was discussed here last year as well.

The fact going with this option bars you from buying points for the following year is good incentive to keep folks away from it. It will be interesting to see what happens with it this year.

 

[The10%]

The 0 point pool is already just a random draw….?

Correct. Most states will do like 75% to highest point holder, and 25% random, instead of 25% to 0 point. This takes away the issue of having such high odds at 0%, and gives people more incentive to purchase points.

 

[Elk97]

If I remember correctly there were a large number of apps last year with 1PP so most of those people (me) will be applying with two PP this year. Seems like the odds of drawing with 2 is going to go down this year? With 3 it should still be 100% but depending on how many opt out of the PP and go with 0 in years to come it might shift things in favor of buying the points. We'll see I guess. Good luck to everyone. This is really messing up my last years of hunting (72), was planning on being able to hunt with my sons and grandsons since they live in MT but might lose out on that due to age. Sucks

 

[gtriple]

I flunked math, but if my powerball numbers don’t get drawn do my odd of winning keep going up the more times I play?

 

[Lancejohn60]

I’m betting 80-85% with two and 100% with 3 given you have to apply every year.

We shall see. I’m going in with 2 this year. All I know is that applying with one was a giant waste of time and money last year, especially considering it took them months to issue a refund. I should’ve just not applied and bought a point last fall.

I’m also going in with 2 points. Opted to apply for the big game combo as for the extra $200 I will have a deer tag too. Fingers crossed

 

[PaBone]

We drew as a group last year with 1.67 points. My boys are going in with 2 a piece and I'm trying 0 on my own so I don't bring them down.

 

[160andup]

We drew as a group last year with 1.67 points. My boys are going in with 2 a piece and I'm trying 0 on my own so I don't bring them down.

….how? Only 97% draw with 2 points means no one with <2 did. Unless you’re talking deer.

 

[PaBone]

Nope we drew general elk tags. I had one point and my two buddy's had two and drew as a group.

 

[Indian Summer]

I don't think that is true. If you apply for a license and do not draw one, then I believe you can buy your PP in the fall.

And if what you are saying is true, then the math is in the favor of NOT buying points. In that scenario....

Year 1, buy a point and apply = 0% chance to draw with 1pt.
Year 2, buy a point and apply = 97% chance to draw.
So odds to draw in 2 years = 97%,

So the $200 in points gets you a 3.76% higher chance to draw in 2 years.

If you bought a point at the time you applied for the license you wouldn’t be able to buy a point in the fall.

 

[Scrappy]

If you bought a point at the time you applied for the license you wouldn’t be able to buy a point in the fall.

I believe you are correct buttt/ttt with how bad Montana is screwed up I believe I will try. If the computer will let me its not my fault.

 

[gtriple]

If you bought a point at the time you applied for the license you wouldn’t be able to buy a point in the fall.

I never said that you could.

 

[PaBone]

….how? Only 97% draw with 2 points means no one with <2 did. Unless you’re talking deer.

I think last year there was some sort of computer glitch. We did not draw in the first round and after people did not draw their limited permits and choose a refund over a general tag, we got one of those tags. I later heard some of those people should of got general elk tags and Montana had to issue them tags as well. Either way it worked out for us.

 

[Rifleman86]

Well I’m sitting around doing some math this morning.

First off though demand is exponentially higher than it was 10 years ago, the trend in the last year was down. Applicants for the BG/Elk combo were 31,915 in 2021 and 30,947 in 2022.

I think 2021 was the peak, with the economy at its relative cusp and lots of demand from adult onset Covid hunters. With inflation and the economy slowing, Covid over, not to mention a lot of “one time” elk hunters checking off their bucket list over the past few years I’d bet we see total apps for the BG/elk combo in the range of 26-29k this year.

Some interesting numbers…

Coming out of 2021 there were 13,141 applicants with one point that were unsuccessful. In 2022, there were 9,336 applicants with 2 points. If we extrapolate that a bit, it means roughly 71% of unsuccessful applicants with points reapplied the next year (yes I realize I’m not counting the points only people, trying to keep the math simple.)

Nearly everyone with two or more points in 2022 drew (minus 238 two point applicants) so all those folks are more or less back to square one.

In 2022, 12,188 applicants applied with 1 point, all unsuccessful. So that means that less people came out of 2022 that were unsuccessful with one point than came out of 2021. 12,188 x 71% = 8658 so roughly that number applying in 2023 with 2 points if the statistics of those reapplying remains somewhat constant.

Now, with being able to buy a PP in December then again in March during the application might skew those 2 PP numbers higher. The other unknown is how many people apply with 3 PP, but given those will mostly be people who are going with an outfitter, I don’t think there will be a huge jump there given nearly everyone with two points has drawn and is back at square one.

Bottom line I think things will normalize somewhat this year. The fact Montana makes you apply every year and maxes the points at 3 really helps keep things under control. If we can get rid of the outfitter shit, it’s a damn good system. Given demand is roughly a little less than twice that of available tags, it should be a relatively consistent “every other year” tag.

This is just one guy’s opinion, worth what you paid for it. Bottom line, I don’t think all is lost in the western hunting world.

 

[kitandace77]

Well I’m sitting around doing some math this morning.

First off though demand is exponentially higher than it was 10 years ago, the trend in the last year was down. Applicants for the BG/Elk combo were 31,915 in 2021 and 30,947 in 2022.

I think 2021 was the peak, with the economy at its relative cusp and lots of demand from adult onset Covid hunters. With inflation and the economy slowing, Covid over, not to mention a lot of “one time” elk hunters checking off their bucket list over the past few years I’d bet we see total apps for the BG/elk combo in the range of 26-29k this year.

Some interesting numbers…

Coming out of 2021 there were 13,141 applicants with one point that were unsuccessful. In 2022, there were 9,336 applicants with 2 points. If we extrapolate that a bit, it means roughly 71% of unsuccessful applicants with points reapplied the next year (yes I realize I’m not counting the points only people, trying to keep the math simple.)

Nearly everyone with two or more points in 2022 drew (minus 238 two point applicants) so all those folks are more or less back to square one.

In 2022, 12,188 applicants applied with 1 point, all unsuccessful. So that means that less people came out of 2022 that were unsuccessful with one point than came out of 2021. 12,188 x 71% = 8658 so roughly that number applying in 2023 with 2 points if the statistics of those reapplying remains somewhat constant.

Now, with being able to buy a PP in December then again in March during the application might skew those 2 PP numbers higher. The other unknown is how many people apply with 3 PP, but given those will mostly be people who are going with an outfitter, I don’t think there will be a huge jump there given nearly everyone with two points has drawn and is back at square one.

Bottom line I think things will normalize somewhat this year. The fact Montana makes you apply every year and maxes the points at 3 really helps keep things under control. If we can get rid of the outfitter shit, it’s a damn good system. Given demand is roughly a little less than twice that of available tags, it should be a relatively consistent “every other year” tag.

This is just one guy’s opinion, worth what you paid for it. Bottom line, I don’t think all is lost in the western hunting world.

I was thinking the same. Would be very surprised if 2pts wasn’t nearly a guarantee this year. Our group is hovering at just under 2 and are a little worried about drawing since we don’t want to go until 2024.

 

[voltage]

Has western hunting demand ever materially decreased from year to year? I hope it gets easier to draw, but everything seems to be trending away from getting easier.

 

[Rifleman86]

Has western hunting demand ever materially decreased from year to year? I hope it gets easier to draw, but everything seems to be trending away from getting easier.

https://www.nssf.org/research/hunting-license-data-dashboard/

Digging around on the NSSF’s license database is interesting. Hunting is down across the board nearly everywhere, with the exception of nonresident hunting, particularly in the west, with a sharp increase since 2018.

Personally I think it points to a fad rather than a long term trend. Does that mean we are going back to where we were? No. The secret of western hunting is out… But many folks who “discovered” it over the last few years are going to hunt a season or two then realize it’s mostly a shit ton of work/money/time and realize the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

I bet we see a steady decline in the next five years with things normalizing at a point much higher than before the “bump.”

Also we did see a pretty stark drop off after 2008 IIRC, and it’s debatable that we are at the cusp of similar economic turmoil with inflation.

We’ll see, I could be wrong, but I’m really interested to see how the numbers shake out this year.

 

[Erict]

https://www.nssf.org/research/hunting-license-data-dashboard/

Digging around on the NSSF’s license database is interesting.

FYI - the "database" appears to include just 19 states, 3 from the "West" (Washington, Oregon, New Mexico), none from the Northeast, etc. Not sure what can be concluded from partial data.

 

[Gregt9146]

With this being the first year that everybody has to apply or lose all PP in Montana, I'm expecting there to be some major point creep with the general tags. I'd been planning to hunt Montana this year. I've got 2 PP, and could purchase a 3rd prior to applying. But I'm not even sure if 3 will be 100% this year.

Anybody got a hunch or some insight? Trying to avoid waiting to see what happens in Montana and then missing out on drawing other opportunities.

you will draw, no one will ever have more than 2 PP after this year

 

[DanimalW]

you will draw, no one will ever have more than 2 PP after this year

Except guys applying with an outfitter. Pretty easy to buy a point the previous year (up until December) and then buy 2 more points when you apply in March. Wonder how many guys actually apply with an outfitter.