Montana point creep expectation

sneaky

"DADDY"
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With this being the first year that everybody has to apply or lose all PP in Montana, I'm expecting there to be some major point creep with the general tags. I'd been planning to hunt Montana this year. I've got 2 PP, and could purchase a 3rd prior to applying. But I'm not even sure if 3 will be 100% this year.

Anybody got a hunch or some insight? Trying to avoid waiting to see what happens in Montana and then missing out on drawing other opportunities.
They've been zeroing points for not applying after 2 years of buying points for awhile now. This isn't a new development in Montana. 3 points you'll be fine. $100 points are getting stupid though.

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DanimalW

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If you apply for a license with 0 PP in 2022 you cannot buy a PP after. Going in to 2023, your options would be to buy 1 PP with license app or go in with 0. So it's not stupid, some people have no choice. If they already spend $100 for the PP, then NOT applying would be a waste.

Applying with 1 PP is the best way to "postpone" a planned hunt. Assuming no major changes, I can plan to be drawn in 2027 by applying every year* with 1 PP (0% draw chance) until the 2027, then buy PP #2 at the time of application, almost assuring being drawn. (*It is worth mentioning that simply applying has non-refundable fees that can add up over time.)
I just meant to buy a PP every other year, and don’t even waste the time or money applying on years where you only have one point. But who knows. Down the road, you might have a shot with one point again. Only being able to buy one PP before applying (previously you could buy 2 before applying) might mean more people lose their points instead of cashing in. That might lead to those people quitting the PP game. It sucks to waste a $100 PP, but I’m sure it happens. Nobody knows what curveballs life’s going to throw them next year.
 
OP
gtriple

gtriple

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You have missed something. Your example goes in to the first license draw with 0 PP. You CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license. You go in to second license draw where you can buy a PP at the same time as license, giving you 1 PP. You must wait until the third license application to buy the second PP.
I don't think that is true. If you apply for a license and do not draw one, then I believe you can buy your PP in the fall.

And if what you are saying is true, then the math is in the favor of NOT buying points. In that scenario....

Year 1, buy a point and apply = 0% chance to draw with 1pt.
Year 2, buy a point and apply = 97% chance to draw.
So odds to draw in 2 years = 97%,

So the $200 in points gets you a 3.76% higher chance to draw in 2 years.
 
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I don’t waste my time/money on the PP thing in montana. Odds are pretty solid without it. The way I see it I have much better odds with 74% on a general tag that lets me hunt just about anywhere in the state compared to 2 or 3 points in CO with a 4% chance of getting a decent unit and I can only hunt that unit. Of course, I also don’t support the outfitter welfare programs either and won’t hunt WY because of it.
 
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I don't think that is true. If you apply for a license and do not draw one, then I believe you can buy your PP in the fall.

And if what you are saying is true, then the math is in the favor of NOT buying points. In that scenario....

Year 1, buy a point and apply = 0% chance to draw with 1pt.
Year 2, buy a point and apply = 97% chance to draw.
So odds to draw in 2 years = 97%,

So the $200 in points gets you a 3.76% higher chance to draw in 2 years.
He is correct, if you apply that year you can’t buy an off season PP. I applied last year and logged on to try and buy a point in Dec and it wasn’t an option.
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OP
gtriple

gtriple

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You have missed something. Your example goes in to the first license draw with 0 PP. You CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license. You go in to second license draw where you can buy a PP at the same time as license, giving you 1 PP. You must wait until the third license application to buy the second PP.
I've updated the original calcs now, proving that I have substantiated that claim...

$200 vs 3.76% higher odds.
 

ez_willie

Lil-Rokslider
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You have missed something. Your example goes in to the first license draw with 0 PP. You CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license. You go in to second license draw where you can buy a PP at the same time as license, giving you 1 PP. You must wait until the third license application to buy the second PP.
”you CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license”. ….. I can’t buy one PP now and then buy a 2nd in march 2024 and apply with 2 in same year as buying 2nd point? Guessing you misspoke or I’m missing something.
 

Scrappy

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”you CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license”. ….. I can’t buy one PP now and then buy a 2nd in march 2024 and apply with 2 in same year as buying 2nd point? Guessing you misspoke or I’m missing something.
This is why I'm so confused. Can't turn to the fwp for solid info either. FRUSTRATING
 

ez_willie

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It's been awhile since I did statistics, but it should be simple math. Obviously, this is assuming the odds don't change year-by-year, which they obviously do. So adjust the math below to fit the year.

Based on data from GoHunt (might be 2 years old), # of points and % chance to draw:
0pts = 74%
1pts = 0%
2pts = 97%
3pts = 100%

Buying points:
So year one, you buy a point before and your odds of drawing is 0% (not drawing 100%) $100 spent.
You buy 2nd point before applying the next year, $200 spent. Your odds of drawing is 97% (not drawing 3%).
Odds of one of the other occurring should be:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 1.0 * 0.03 = 0.03 = 3.0%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 3.0% = 97.0%.

Not buying points:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.26 * 0.26 = 0.0676 = 6.76%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 6.76% = 93.24%.

So you can spend an extra $200 and get a 3.76% higher chance to draw over 2 years.

Just for fun, year 3 odds to draw after not purchasing any points = 98.24%, so only 1.76% less chance after 3 years and $300 less.

Edited to update buying points strategy to buying first point before you apply instead of after (not allowed).
I flunked math, but if my powerball numbers don’t get drawn do my odd of winning keep going up the more times I play?
 
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Where it really starts to make sense is over the long term. If odds stay stagnant, which we know isn’t likely, 0 points is probably going to draw the most tags over let’s say 10 years.

0 points applying every year with a roughly 75% success rate is probably going to draw 7-8 tags over a 10 year period. You might get unlucky and draw only 4-5 tags, or you might get lucky and draw 9-10 tags. If you are really unlucky you might only draw 2-3, or even 0.

Doing the points game you will probably draw a tag fairly predictably every other year. You might get unlucky at 2 points, but you are guaranteed a tag the next year. So let’s say 5 tags over 10 years, maybe 4 if you get unlucky. So less tags on average, but with more predictability of what years you will hunt.

Bottom line both strategies have their merits, just have to pick your poison I guess. If I know I can’t hunt a year, or have a relatively sure thing in another state, I’ll probably play the points game for the following year. If not I’ll probably go 0 points.
 

DanimalW

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Also, over the course of 10 years, you dropped the price of a tag in just points.
 
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I bet the odds of drawing with zero decrease.
In the past i don't think anyone thought they had a chance of drawing with zero so they didn't bother.

Now with everyone advertising that the odds of drawing with zero are better, more people with zero are going to apply.

I'm a prime example. PP are king on Oregon. So I never would of considered applying with zero.
But now I am.
 

Scrappy

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I bet the odds of drawing with zero decrease.
In the past i don't think anyone thought they had a chance of drawing with zero so they didn't bother.

Now with everyone advertising that the odds of drawing with zero are better, more people with zero are going to apply.

I'm a prime example. PP are king on Oregon. So I never would of considered applying with zero.
But now I am.
Was thinking the same thing, with everyone bragging how easy it's going to be to draw with zero pp has literally shot themselves in the foot.
 
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Was thinking the same thing, with everyone bragging how easy it's going to be to draw with zero pp has literally shot themselves in the foot.
I don’t think it’s a secret. The data is all right there on the FWP website, and most guys fronting $1000+ on a tag are going to look at last years odds. I’m sure we will see some ebb and flow till things normalize.
 

The10%

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I don’t think it’s a secret. The data is all right there on the FWP website, and most guys fronting $1000+ on a tag are going to look at last years odds. I’m sure we will see some ebb and flow till things normalize.
Yeah the odds on 0 points will tank I think. It will be less than 50% this year I bet due to forums like this. I see MT changing it from 0 points to Random in the future, but if they don't it will continue to drop each year.
 
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Erict

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Curious. A guided hunter can buy an additional "outfitter" PP at time of license application. Most of them will go in to the draw with 2 PP. We know about 3% with 2 PP don't get selected - wonder how many non-selectees have an "outfitter PP"?
 

bsnedeker

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Doing the points game you will probably draw a tag fairly predictably every other year. You might get unlucky at 2 points, but you are guaranteed a tag the next year. So let’s say 5 tags over 10 years, maybe 4 if you get unlucky. So less tags on average, but with more predictability of what years you will hunt.

I can virtually guarantee you that three points will not be a lock in 10 years time if trends continue the way they have been. 2 points was the maximum allowed 2 years ago. Just another factor to consider in your calculations.



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