Montana point creep expectation

[Rifleman86]

I drew last year and am tempted to try the 0 point strategy this year. Decisions, decisions...

I think 0 points every year is going to be my strategy from here on out.

Applying for the elk combo with points was nearly $1200 last night. $1300 with the point from last year. That’s insane…

Averaged out, I think I’ll hunt more often for less just doing 0.

Now if you have a “sure thing” in another state this year and the money isn’t a concern, the point thing might make sense.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I’m betting 80-85% with two and 100% with 3 given you have to apply every year.

We shall see. I’m going in with 2 this year. All I know is that applying with one was a giant waste of time and money last year, especially considering it took them months to issue a refund. I should’ve just not applied and bought a point last fall.

Thoughts on 2.5 pp with a party app? With outfitter welfare of 2pp out the gate gonna make it interesting...

 

[Fcrowhurst]

I lost my points as well

 

[voltage]

Thoughts on 2.5 pp with a party app? With outfitter welfare of 2pp out the gate gonna make it interesting...

2.01+ will likely be 100%

 

[Rifleman86]

Thoughts on 2.5 pp with a party app? With outfitter welfare of 2pp out the gate gonna make it interesting...

I think you should be good!

 

[ez_willie]

I think you should be good!

Unless of course MT system is currently having an issue where customers’ points aren’t updating correctly if they purchased a summer preference point…could be a lot more extra going in with 2+ PP.

 

[Rifleman86]

Unless of course MT system is currently having an issue where customers’ points aren’t updating correctly if they purchased a summer preference point…could be a lot more extra going in with 2+ PP.

They shouldn’t have been able to purchase a point if they applied last year. (I checked, I applied last year and couldn’t.)

Now if they aren’t zeroing out points for people who didn’t apply last year, which it sounds like they didn’t, you might be correct.

We also don’t know if the slowing economy/inflation is going to have any effect.

 

[gtriple]

They shouldn’t have been able to purchase a point if they applied last year. (I checked, I applied last year and couldn’t.)

Now if they aren’t zeroing out points for people who didn’t apply last hear, which it sounds like they didn’t, you might be correct.

We also don’t know if the slowing economy/inflation is going to have any effect.

I just wonder what they are going to do when they lose out on a bunch of money from people no longer buying points because it is a waste of money. Statistically, you should have close to as good of a chance of drawing a tag every 2 years no matter if you buy the 2 points or not. So why waste the extra $?

 

[Erict]

Statistically, you should have close to as good of a chance of drawing a tag every 2 years no matter if you buy the 2 points or not.

I doubt this claim can be substantiated. From what I know, this is not even close to being true.

 

[voltage]

States aren’t losing money… regardless of their odd systems and the economy, revenue has continued to rise.

 

[gtriple]

I doubt this claim can be substantiated. From what I know, this is not even close to being true.

It's been awhile since I did statistics, but it should be simple math. Obviously, this is assuming the odds don't change year-by-year, which they obviously do. So adjust the math below to fit the year.

Based on data from GoHunt (might be 2 years old), # of points and % chance to draw:
0pts = 74%
1pts = 0%
2pts = 97%
3pts = 100%

Buying points:
So year one, you buy a point before and your odds of drawing is 0% (not drawing 100%) $100 spent.
You buy 2nd point before applying the next year, $200 spent. Your odds of drawing is 97% (not drawing 3%).
Odds of one of the other occurring should be:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 1.0 * 0.03 = 0.03 = 3.0%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 3.0% = 97.0%.

Not buying points:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.26 * 0.26 = 0.0676 = 6.76%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 6.76% = 93.24%.

So you can spend an extra $200 and get a 3.76% higher chance to draw over 2 years.

Just for fun, year 3 odds to draw after not purchasing any points = 98.24%, so only 1.76% less chance after 3 years and $300 less.

Edited to update buying points strategy to buying first point before you apply instead of after (not allowed).

 

[Rifleman86]

It's been awhile since I did statistics, but it should be simple math. Obviously, this is assuming the odds don't change year-by-year, which they obviously do. So adjust the math below to fit the year.

Based on data from GoHunt (might be 2 years old), # of points and % chance to draw:
0pts = 74%
1pts = 0%
2pts = 97%
3pts = 100%

Buying points:
So year one, you don't buy a point before and your odds of drawing is 74% (not drawing 26%).
You buy 1 point after not drawing, $100 spent.
You buy 2nd point before applying the next year, $200 spent. Your odds of drawing is 97% (not drawing 3%).
Odds of one of the other occurring should be:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.26 * 0.03 = 0.0078 = 0.78%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 0.78% = 99.22%.

Not buying points:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.26 * 0.26 = 0.0676 = 6.76%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 6.76% = 93.24%.

So you can spend an extra $200 and get a 5.98% higher chance to draw over 2 years.

Just for fun, year 3 odds to draw after not purchasing any points = 98.24%.

shhh!

If the odds stay relatively stagnant the 0 points every year is a good long term strategy.

But for now points still make sense if you are trying to plan ahead.

 

[gtriple]

shhh!

If the odds stay relatively stagnant the 0 points every year is a good long term strategy.

But for now points still make sense if you are trying to plan ahead.

Agreed. Buying points gives you more control over which year you are hunting in Montana. But it isn't much advantage if you are flexible year-to-year.

For me, I'll still be buying points because the MT results are so late that getting a good backup plan by then is unlikely.

 

[Rifleman86]

Agreed. Buying points gives you more control over which year you are hunting in Montana. But it isn't much advantage if you are flexible year-to-year.

For me, I'll still be buying points because the MT results are so late that getting a good backup plan by then is unlikely.

Yup.

I think I’ll just be a 0 points guy from here on out after this year. CO OTC as a backup, with some CO 1st season, WY general and B tags mixed in there every few years. Only way I’ll buy points again is if I know I’ll have to skip a season.

One thing is certain, nobody should be dumb enough to apply with 0 points like I did and give MT a 3 month interest free loan like I did last year.

 

[Scottf270]

We're gonna try this year with a point and see how stuff shakes out. We will either start going no points or plan on Montana being an every other year hunt.

 

[DanimalW]

Zero points makes the most sense. Everyone else will be applying with at least 2 points. Doesn’t take much planning to buy a prior year point in December and 3 months later but a second point when you apply. Pay $200 to possibly increase your draw odds 5-10%? Granted you’re guaranteed the following year for another $100. Just seems like a flawed system. I’m still applying this year though…btw, if you apply with one point that’s just stupid. And a waste.

 

[gtriple]

Zero points makes the most sense. Everyone else will be applying with at least 2 points. Doesn’t take much planning to buy a prior year point in December and 3 months later but a second point when you apply. Pay $200 to possibly increase your draw odds 5-10%? Granted you’re guaranteed the following year for another $100. Just seems like a flawed system. I’m still applying this year though…btw, if you apply with one point that’s just stupid. And a waste.

I agree. I'll have a really hard time buying the points again next year.

 

[Erict]

btw, if you apply with one point that’s just stupid. And a waste.

If you apply for a license with 0 PP in 2022 you cannot buy a PP after. Going in to 2023, your options would be to buy 1 PP with license app or go in with 0. So it's not stupid, some people have no choice. If they already spend $100 for the PP, then NOT applying would be a waste.

Applying with 1 PP is the best way to "postpone" a planned hunt. Assuming no major changes, I can plan to be drawn in 2027 by applying every year* with 1 PP (0% draw chance) until the 2027, then buy PP #2 at the time of application, almost assuring being drawn. (*It is worth mentioning that simply applying has non-refundable fees that can add up over time.)

 

[Erict]

Based on data from GoHunt (might be 2 years old), # of points and % chance to draw:
0pts = 74%
1pts = 0%
2pts = 97%
3pts = 100%

Buying points:
So year one, you don't buy a point before and your odds of drawing is 74% (not drawing 26%).
You buy 1 point after not drawing, $100 spent.
You buy 2nd point before applying the next year, $200 spent. Your odds of drawing is 97% (not drawing 3%).
Odds of one of the other occurring should be:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.26 * 0.03 = 0.0078 = 0.78%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 0.78% = 99.22%.

You have missed something. Your example goes in to the first license draw with 0 PP. You CANNOT buy a PP in the same year as applying for a license. You go in to second license draw where you can buy a PP at the same time as license, giving you 1 PP. You must wait until the third license application to buy the second PP.

 

[Rifleman86]

If you apply for a license with 0 PP in 2022 you cannot buy a PP after. Going in to 2023, your options would be to buy 1 PP with license app or go in with 0. So it's not stupid, some people have no choice. If they already spend $100 for the PP, then NOT applying would be a waste.

Applying with 1 PP is the best way to "postpone" a planned hunt. Assuming no major changes, I can plan to be drawn in 2027 by applying every year* with 1 PP (0% draw chance) until the 2027, then buy PP #2 at the time of application, almost assuring being drawn. (*It is worth mentioning that simply applying has non-refundable fees that can add up over time.)

Yeah but if you know you aren’t going one year, you might as well not apply, save the application frees, and buy a point in the off season then another when applying.

This year you could buy an off season preference point up until Dec 31 2022. Hence my decision to apply with one point in 2022 was a dumb idea knowing the odds were likely going to be 0%.

I had friends wanting to go this year that bought a point in December who are in the exact same points situation I am going into the draw this year with two points, which sort of pisses me off.