Fleeing Californians and Property Values

[TheGDog]

States need a system that gives the counties outside the major cities more say on what happens in the state. Just like California, NY or Texas should not be dictating unchallenged what happens in smaller states, large cities like Denver and Boulder should not be able to so easily decide policy for the entire state.

Dude... I think you just stumbled onto one of the answers that needs to be included from 2020 forward here with this suggestion!

 

[TheGDog]

“Sounds like some people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and work harder to have a house” - some old man who bought his first house for less than 1 year’s blue collar salary

F'Real 'Do! My GrandPa bought a house in whatever the hell year that was... in Torrance, CA.. around the area of South High School. It was in a development in a hillside sorta overlooking PCH you might say.

And OMMFG... he bough the sh*t for ... some amount that fit into $####.## (can't remember the actual amount at the moment, but my jaw hit the floor when I heard it. I wanna say something 5K?). I was younger so don't know the reason why.. but.. he sold it in like 1983(?) for like $325,000!! It obviously was a few decades of ownership, but still. He gifted the proceeds to his children my Mom and my Uncle.

As kids about to be approaching High School age... we were like "Mom! Mom! Please... buy out the other half out from Uncle Stan!" (For those that don't know that area is WAY in the hell better than the armpit of Carson where we all grew up, and, OMFg the cuties all up in the more nicer area of Torrance? Are you kidding me!)

So... rolling with the idea $5K as the initial possible purchase price, let's just say... that's like %6500 percent profit!!!

So just for sh*ts and giggles... let's see what that kinda comparison Math looks like if we were to compare it to my own situation, shall we? (I know it's not going to be equal for me, since population growth likely won't be so prolific comparatively speaking.. but still). My place was $549K purchase price in 2007. So... $549K x 6500% growth would be $35,685,000!!! And once you've owned your home for, I believe it's greater than 30 or 40 years... no Capital Gains Tax!!!

 

[def90]

F'Real 'Do! My GrandPa bought a house in whatever the hell year that was... in Torrance, CA.. around the area of South High School. It was in a development in a hillside sorta overlooking PCH you might say.

And OMMFG... he bough the sh*t for ... some amount that fit into $####.## (can't remember the actual amount at the moment, but my jaw hit the floor when I heard it. I wanna say something 5K?). I was younger so don't know the reason why.. but.. he sold it in like 1983(?) for like $325,000!! It obviously was a few decades of ownership, but still. He gifted the proceeds to his children my Mom and my Uncle.

As kids about to be approaching High School age... we were like "Mom! Mom! Please... buy out the other half out from Uncle Stan!" (For those that don't know that area is WAY in the hell better than the armpit of Carson where we all grew up, and, OMFg the cuties all up in the more nicer area of Torrance? Are you kidding me!)

So... rolling with the idea $5K as the initial possible purchase price, let's just say... that's like %6500 percent profit!!!

So just for sh*ts and giggles... let's see what that kinda comparison Math looks like if we were to compare it to my own situation, shall we? (I know it's not going to be equal for me, since population growth likely won't be so prolific comparatively speaking.. but still). My place was $549K purchase price in 2007. So... $549K x 6500% growth would be $35,685,000!!! And once you've owned your home for, I believe it's greater than 30 or 40 years... no Capital Gains Tax!!!

You aren’t factoring in inflation. $5000 in 1945 is worth $72285 today.. so depending on when the original property was purchased it was still a nice gain but not as much as it appears. And then if you sell it at that price and everything else has also gone up the same amount so your buy in for a new place is just as high then in essence you can’t say you really made anything on it.

 

[TheGDog]

You aren’t factoring in inflation. $5000 in 1945 is worth $72285 today.. so depending on when the original property was purchased it was still a nice gain but not as much as it appears. And then if you sell it at that price and everything else has also gone up the same amount so your buy in for a new place is just as high then in essence you can’t say you really made anything on it.

Good Catch. But still it's redonk.

The single biggest way in which our governance today is failing us is that they are not working at making the value of each individual dollar be worth more in spending power.

 

[cbat]

Unfortunately it is making it impossible for young people to stay in the towns they have grown up in.

 

[sasquatch]

States need a system that gives the counties outside the major cities more say on what happens in the state. Just like California, NY or Texas should not be dictating unchallenged what happens in smaller states, large cities like Denver and Boulder should not be able to so easily decide policy for the entire state.

A delegate system. So many points per county


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[def90]

Good Catch. But still it's redonk.

The single biggest way in which our governance today is failing us is that they are not working at making the value of each individual dollar be worth more in spending power.

yeah, people moving in to a new area and raising housing prices is only a small part of it, inflation and the next to nothing interest loans are the big drivers behind housing becoming more and more expensive across the country.

 

[sasquatch]

F'Real 'Do! My GrandPa bought a house in whatever the hell year that was... in Torrance, CA.. around the area of South High School. It was in a development in a hillside sorta overlooking PCH you might say.

And OMMFG... he bough the sh*t for ... some amount that fit into $####.## (can't remember the actual amount at the moment, but my jaw hit the floor when I heard it. I wanna say something 5K?). I was younger so don't know the reason why.. but.. he sold it in like 1983(?) for like $325,000!! It obviously was a few decades of ownership, but still. He gifted the proceeds to his children my Mom and my Uncle.

As kids about to be approaching High School age... we were like "Mom! Mom! Please... buy out the other half out from Uncle Stan!" (For those that don't know that area is WAY in the hell better than the armpit of Carson where we all grew up, and, OMFg the cuties all up in the more nicer area of Torrance? Are you kidding me!)

So... rolling with the idea $5K as the initial possible purchase price, let's just say... that's like %6500 percent profit!!!

So just for sh*ts and giggles... let's see what that kinda comparison Math looks like if we were to compare it to my own situation, shall we? (I know it's not going to be equal for me, since population growth likely won't be so prolific comparatively speaking.. but still). My place was $549K purchase price in 2007. So... $549K x 6500% growth would be $35,685,000!!! And once you've owned your home for, I believe it's greater than 30 or 40 years... no Capital Gains Tax!!!

You also don’t factor in the real purchase price. You may pay 549 on paper

But pay that over 30 years like the average person and you pay a lot more. Some is deductible but that don’t move the needle a whole lot. Then inflation as mentioned above.

Also, one of the biggest reasons I believe we seeing the spike in home prices is due to interest rate and how the new generations look at purchases.

Newer generation don’t give 2 ishts about a purchase price or what something cost! The only thing that matters is “what’s my note”. Therefore interest rates being low make the note lower, in return the market elevates the prices as now there’s more demand due to affordable “notes”

I’m pretty sure it won’t be long before we see 40yr mortgages to sucker people into buying themselves into debt

Just look at what’s taken place on the vehicle front. Cars got to be almost unaffordable so what did they do?? They didn’t figure a way to lower prices, they figured a way to lower the “note” by going to 6-7 year loans!!

And the suckers keep taking that bait!


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[Billinsd]

Basic facts and tips worth what you paid for:
1)You either pay rent or pay a mortgage
2)You will never own by paying rent
3)Mortgage interest and property taxes are deductible, figure out what savings will be
4)Know your market and don't buy at top
5)Buy what you can afford
6)Brand new houses are generally more than used
7)Buying a house is usually a long term investment
8) Look at the interest you will pay for the loan
9) Of course don't get balloon payments, get fixed rate.
10) Somtimes, for periods of time, it's better to rent.
11) While saving money for a house, pay as little rent for as crappy place you can stand.
12) Pay off you house as quick as you can
13) Don't have credit card debt
14) Only mortgage and car loans are necessary
15) Don't have any high interest loans
16) The less you pay in interest the better
17) Never say never
18) Never say always
19)Stop hunting, it's expensive!!!

 

[ozyclint]

Good Catch. But still it's redonk.

The single biggest way in which our governance today is failing us is that they are not working at making the value of each individual dollar be worth more in spending power.

Dude, they are actively working at doing the complete opposite. Quantitative Easing, massive expansion of currency supply. It's all currency debasement. Been happening forever.

The land value hasn't gone up, the dollar value has gone down. There was a time when US$35 was exchangeable for 1 oz of gold. look at it now

 

[TheGDog]

Oh I know man! I was soo EFFing pissed when Obama is all talking about giving help to people who have been good and responsible on their loans. That a**hole goes and punishes the rest of us for the stupidness of dumb@sses who apparently don't know how to read..or think... and go for these dumb loans.

Here's what I mean. First of all... the help he talked about? it's only if your loan was backed by Fannie Mae OR Freddie Mac (i.e. backed by govt institutions). If your loan wasn't backed by them... you know.. because you had an excellent credit rating and thus didn't need them as the backer... gosh sorry, no help for you. UNLESS... you were willing to play a very dangerous gamble of let your bills go unpaid to create the perception of financial hardship.. the cost of which is ya know the 7 years of bad credit. Know some people who did that, purposefully, and because of that were able to have their loan "re-negotiated" to where it dropped way way down on the monthlies!

And then... in order to sort of prevent the unscrupulous lending to a certain degree, they changed the regs for refi's so you NOW have to have less than a 90% Loan-to-value ratio.

So me... guy who knew I could swing it at $549K.. (but it was tight there in the beginning) who bought at worst possible time for the market.. but because my child was about to be born my goal was to have him born into a Single Family Residence... because way back when.. I was lucky enough to have had that as well.. even though it was in a'hood rat location, but still.

When Obama's all in front of the cam.. he's talkin' up a good game and to a T describing me, in terms of being Mr Responsible. Says he's gonna help these individuals specifically. But instead... they're basically REWARDING all these dumb@sses who were foolish!

In my case... because of my immaculate credit our situation (initially) was structured as first mortgage for the (I think its) 90% of the principal, and 10% into a second mortgage (might be 80-20 can't remember right now) with a slightly higher rate in order to forego having to also get PMI insurance. BUT... since our purchase was very recent before these events... not enough time paying into it to have achieve this new 90% loan-to-value ratio mandate... especially when YOU f*ckers created the conditions which THEN caused my homes now current value to devalue and thus disallow me from achieving these marks you've set to allow me to REFI my sh*t and take advantage of the way the rates were dropping like crazy left and right! (Bastards!) TOTALLY UNFAIR AS SH*T! Especially since everything I've done since the age of 19yo on up has been such that when it came time for that moment to buy a house... they're all like Yes Mr Dog... No Mr Dog (not gonna say my lastname in a public post, duh!) how much money would you like Mr Dog. I'm over here doing all the things right... but I'm disallowed from getting a REFI... due to new regs you slap on in order to prevent unscruplulous lenders from preying upon dummies. That just ain't right!

But you know... I mapped out the plan... focused on paying down more toward the balance on the 2nd mortgage higher APR loan and bided my time until the loan-to-value ratio finally hit the right marks they required. Then got my refi finally. But that was EXTREMELY UNjust to disallow somebody like me... who had immaculate and I mean immaculate credit rating his entire life.. that he judiciously and carefully guarded... to not be allowed the opportunity to REFI.

But hey.. you know... the Dems are all about rewarding the losers in society with money out of the other mans pocket. And whatever... though I knew it'd be tight moneywise... I knew we *should* be able to swing it. But it didn't help that mama had to change jobs due to the stress it was causing her from her D-Bag lady boss creating catch-22 situations where it'd be impossible for such an employee to ever be able to achieve the goals set forth.. plus a lot of throwing under the bus drama.

And woo lawdy don't get me started on childcare costs when your kid is an infant, and you both work, and there is no family nearby to help, not that I had a good relationship with them anyway. The goal of home ownership... and our age (I was 38, her 39 when boy was born)... is a big part of the reason we agreed on a one-and-done life plan for children. No way in hell I could have afforded to have two kids in daycare at the same time. Ain't hap'nin'. And we were already on the older side for having new kids... so when her company was gonna open up a new surgery center... all of them have to provide a certain number of free procedures in order to get their facilities accredited and licensed... so Daddy got a snippy-snip for free.

Oh man.. and also company I worked for, the pres cashed out in 2008 and we got sucked up by a bigger corp ya know? And working for a corp is stressful because typically they don't give a sh*t about you. Usually no loyalty at all in corp gigs. And with this system we had... I'd kinda gotten keyholed/dinosaured into getting stuck maintaining this system written in older tech. So new baby.. at worst possible time to buy home... while your livelihood is under potential threat. With no ability to attempt to do any appreciable savings because the monthly expenses being so high.. especially with childcare being part of that equation back then. So you know... you double down and just become more awesome and attack work with a vengeance to let'em know who's the man, to be all like "See! See! I'm Mr ROI.. no you don't wanna replace me with some team down in Auckland NZ!

Good times... NOT!

 

[monsterB]

This thread seems like an argument they would have at an old folks home.

 

[bsnedeker]

“Sounds like some people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and work harder to have a house” - some old man who bought his first house for less than 1 year’s blue collar salary

When was this magical period where you could buy a house for less than 1 year's blue collar salary? Serious question....I was not aware of there being any time in the history of this country that was possible. As far as I am aware you have always had to work and make good financial decisions if you wanted to buy a home.

 

[mmw194287]

When was this magical period where you could buy a house for less than 1 year's blue collar salary? Serious question....I was not aware of there being any time in the history of this country that was possible. As far as I am aware you have always had to work and make good financial decisions if you wanted to buy a home.

My father in law got back from Vietnam in 1970 (median family income was a little less than 10 grand according to the census bureau) and bought a house in Seattle for $8,000. That home is worth around $950,000+ today, and it has not been updated, etc.

 

[Nomadx2]

Basic facts and tips worth what you paid for:
1)You either pay rent or pay a mortgage
2)You will never own by paying rent
3)Mortgage interest and property taxes are deductible, figure out what savings will be
4)Know your market and don't buy at top
5)Buy what you can afford
6)Brand new houses are generally more than used
7)Buying a house is usually a long term investment
8) Look at the interest you will pay for the loan
9) Of course don't get balloon payments, get fixed rate.
10) Somtimes, for periods of time, it's better to rent.
11) While saving money for a house, pay as little rent for as crappy place you can stand.
12) Pay off you house as quick as you can
13) Don't have credit card debt
14) Only mortgage and car loans are necessary
15) Don't have any high interest loans
16) The less you pay in interest the better
17) Never say never
18) Never say always
19)Stop hunting, it's expensive!!!

A couple of modifications ....
14) A car loan is never "necessary", only if you are looking to pay more than you can afford to pay cash.
5, 8, 9, 12) Good ... but focus on buying what you can with a 15 year note, stay away from 30 year. Pay extra on principle every payment.
19) Stop hunting ... well thats just foolish.

 

[bsnedeker]

My father in law got back from Vietnam in 1970 (median family income was a little less than 10 grand according to the census bureau) and bought a house in Seattle for $8,000. That home is worth around $950,000+ today, and it has not been updated, etc.

That's interesting but it seems like an anomaly based on my research. You are correct that median income in Seattle in 1970 was around 10K, which is around $67,000 adjusted for inflation. Median home prices in 1970 in Seattle were a little under $150K when adjusted for inflation, so that's over 2 years average salary.

That said, I'm certainly no expert in this area so my numbers could be wrong. That was just from a quick google search.

 

[mmw194287]

That's interesting but it seems like an anomaly based on my research. You are correct that median income in Seattle in 1970 was around 10K, which is around $67,000 adjusted for inflation. Median home prices in 1970 in Seattle were a little under $150K when adjusted for inflation, so that's over 2 years average salary.

That said, I'm certainly no expert in this area so my numbers could be wrong. That was just from a quick

It's true that the median home price to median income weren't 1-to-1 in that example, but it was absolutely possible to do it.

Just like it would be possible to buy a house in Missoula for $200,000 (roughly half the median price). But it would be all-but-impossible to buy any house for anywhere near $40-50,000 (the current median household income). It would also be extremely difficult to any house for 2x the median income.

I don't mean to get hung up on the numbers, but people in that generation grew up in an entirely different economic reality.

 

[HeavilyArmedHIppie]

You aren’t factoring in inflation. $5000 in 1945 is worth $72285 today.. so depending on when the original property was purchased it was still a nice gain but not as much as it appears. And then if you sell it at that price and everything else has also gone up the same amount so your buy in for a new place is just as high then in essence you can’t say you really made anything on it.

Yeah but grandpa was making like 10k/year back then and could go drive a brand new car off the lot for a couple grand, and buy a house for a couple grand. The portion of now angry entitled old man’s income that went to housing was way less.

 

[TTSX180]

Hopefully they won’t bring politics and other stuff that transfers with some. But I doubt it, Oregon has found this out and it’s not change for the better imho.

 

[Kilboars]

How many of these people fleeing are liberals that have been voting in these Democrats that have ruined the state?

I think it’s a travesty that they’re now surrendering it to the liberals rather than staying and fighting it out and voting these people back out of office.

Now they flee to other states and ruin them with her pipe dream philosophies


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