Fleeing Californians and Property Values

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Feb 19, 2019
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No one seems to be chalking this up, or at least attributing a large part of the blame, to simple population growth. More people, less space. That is where it all starts. Nearly everything else being talked about here is a spin-off of that.

More people require more jobs. The model had been for companies to setup shop in NY, Chicago, LA, San Francisco, Houston. Populations exploded in those cities. The cost of running a city grows. Politicians end up taxing individuals and companies to fund the extra services needed to handle all these people and of course, being corrupt, pad their pockets along the way. All driving up cost of living and doing business there. Sheer incompetence of politicians makes it worse. Real estate costs within reasonable commute times skyrockets pushing people further out from the city centers driving up costs further and further out. More and more land is developed to accommodate all these people. As those major city populations grow, smaller satellite cities become bigger cities. Companies start looking for more affordable places to setup. NY and LA being the prime examples of cities that have hit their tipping point, now even rich companies can no longer afford to base corporate headquarters there. Attracting talent is increasingly difficult due to horrible commute times and unaffordable real estate forcing potential employees to look at having roommates and/or live in match box size apartments. With no prospect of ever owning their own home. Homelessness, crime, flourish. Quality of life has reached lows people are not willing to accept. Major companies look to other cities. Mayors of these attractive cites bend over backwards to bring these companies to their towns (remember, corrupt and padding their pockets?). Tax breaks, etc. Atlanta went through this decades ago. Now it is Austin, Nashville, and seemingly every city in Texas. It’s a lot of cities talked about in this thread. This trend has been taking place over the last 30-40 years. But we are seeing a major change even within that trend where companies, e.g. financial services, that never considered being based anywhere but a NY or lesser extent Chicago now realize, with the advances in technology (seamlessly working remotely, high quality video conferencing at you finger tips, cloud services, software as a service, phones and tablets capable of being computer workstations) they can move to Austin or Nashville. They can still attract talent and still do business at a greatly reduced cost. And they are doing it in mass. All of it is driven by population growth and aided by advances in technology.

People have always retired to smaller, more affordable places. That is nothing new. People with the cash have always bought up land in those places. There are just way more of those people now and the go to places in the past are full and not the affordable place anymore. New places are being sought out. None of this happens without population growth. There is a finite amount of space within our boarders and we are busting at the seams.
 
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I do miss the Idaho and intermountain west of the 80s and 90s....go back now and it's almost unrecognizable. Kinda surprised more people haven't discovered the mountain ranges of Nevada, some of the prettiest forests in the west right there. I don't know how this population shifting phenomenon is going to play out in the long run, but hopefully we can protect and preserve as much high quality wildlife habitat as humanly possible in the process...
 
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I know there's areas where migrant or illegal labor is taking jobs. Lots of times that is only filling a void tho. Agriculture especially has been dependent on migrant labor.

Another problem is technology, I'd say tech has put more people out of jobs than anything. CNC machine shops, they have a handful of employees running forktrucks handling material and hundreds of CNC machines going with a few handful of programmers. Sure other fields have similar scenarios.
I would say the opposite. Technology has created way more jobs than it has eliminated. Certain jobs, for sure, it has eliminated. And certain sectors more than others. But far more jobs overall have been created. The landscape of jobs has changed but there are more out there.
 

Mt Al

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No one seems to be chalking this up, or at least attributing a large part of the blame, to simple population growth. More people, less space. That is where it all starts. Nearly everything else being talked about here is a spin-off of that.

More people require more jobs. The model had been for companies to setup shop in NY, Chicago, LA, San Francisco, Houston. Populations exploded in those cities. The cost of running a city grows. Politicians end up taxing individuals and companies to fund the extra services needed to handle all these people and of course, being corrupt, pad their pockets along the way. All driving up cost of living and doing business there. Sheer incompetence of politicians makes it worse. Real estate costs within reasonable commute times skyrockets pushing people further out from the city centers driving up costs further and further out. More and more land is developed to accommodate all these people. As those major city populations grow, smaller satellite cities become bigger cities. Companies start looking for more affordable places to setup. NY and LA being the prime examples of cities that have hit their tipping point, now even rich companies can no longer afford to base corporate headquarters there. Attracting talent is increasingly difficult due to horrible commute times and unaffordable real estate forcing potential employees to look at having roommates and/or live in match box size apartments. With no prospect of ever owning their own home. Homelessness, crime, flourish. Quality of life has reached lows people are not willing to accept. Major companies look to other cities. Mayors of these attractive cites bend over backwards to bring these companies to their towns (remember, corrupt and padding their pockets?). Tax breaks, etc. Atlanta went through this decades ago. Now it is Austin, Nashville, and seemingly every city in Texas. It’s a lot of cities talked about in this thread. This trend has been taking place over the last 30-40 years. But we are seeing a major change even within that trend where companies, e.g. financial services, that never considered being based anywhere but a NY or lesser extent Chicago now realize, with the advances in technology (seamlessly working remotely, high quality video conferencing at you finger tips, cloud services, software as a service, phones and tablets capable of being computer workstations) they can move to Austin or Nashville. They can still attract talent and still do business at a greatly reduced cost. And they are doing it in mass. All of it is driven by population growth and aided by advances in technology.

People have always retired to smaller, more affordable places. That is nothing new. People with the cash have always bought up land in those places. There are just way more of those people now and the go to places in the past are full and not the affordable place anymore. New places are being sought out. None of this happens without population growth. There is a finite amount of space within our boarders and we are busting at the seams.

Very good point on more people. In 20 years, US population went from approx 280,000,000 to 330,000,000, about 18% more people. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

Good thing in the lower graph on that page is that the rate of growth is decreasing. Check out Europe's population on the same link and see why they're almost encouraging immigration - not enough people to support a country at some point.

Tons of factors in all this and I pick the ones that match my ideology - not always wise when I try to claim some sense of objectivity. Your point about "cost of running a city grows" has many factors, too. A huge one is the unfunded, ridiculous, seemingly corrupt pensions. Citizens will, at some point, have to foot the bill. If I saw that in my future I'd move out, too. Those cities/states are looking for a Federal bailout which I hope never happens and, if it does, requires the city to fix their systems.
 
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I would say the opposite. Technology has created way more jobs than it has eliminated. Certain jobs, for sure, it has eliminated. And certain sectors more than others. But far more jobs overall have been created. The landscape of jobs has changed but there are more out there.


It could be, but for what I have seen it reduces jobs. Keep in mind I'm not saying tech as in computer tech, just general technology. It's been happening for a long time. The technology that's in tractors now versus 40 years ago. The amount of work that one person accomplishes anymore is astounding. The technology in milking, it's going robotic now. Labor has been the biggest hurdle for a while, and tech is allowing workers to be replaced. I suspect in the next 10-15 years much of the excavating equipment will be fully autonomous. You will still need guys on site, to service and program, but could have a dozen machines going with 2-4 guys.

I know technology has increased jobs in the service sector, I don't know overall how it plays out.
 
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This has been happening on Oregon for decades.
Feel lucky you made it this long.
Only thing you can do is welcome them and try convincing them not to vote it into another libtard shot hole.
 
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Yes Utah has exploded the last 5-6 yrs because of it. House pricing is absolutely ridiculous in Utah.


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Truckee
Yup. My home appreciated over 100 k in the last year. Many tech people are able to work "remotely" with covid and all and are moving to "the mountains". 2 of my coworkers cashed out. Sold their homes for WAY over asking price within days of listing. I personally dont think many of the people plan to assimilate to the culture they are moving too and could give 2 shits about the way things are or have been in their new home area. Your local trailhead will soon have plenty of Prius and Sprinters parked if they dont already. Just saying.
 

brsnow

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Apr 28, 2019
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Capitalism, some benefit, dome don’t. We need to triple or quadruple our population if we are to continue competing and leading the world though. Numerous countries with much larger populations will start to pass us. Hard to keep up with way less people.
 

Gobbler36

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Idaho
Yup. My home appreciated over 100 k in the last year. Many tech people are able to work "remotely" with covid and all and are moving to "the mountains". 2 of my coworkers cashed out. Sold their homes for WAY over asking price within days of listing. I personally dont think many of the people plan to assimilate to the culture they are moving too and could give 2 shits about the way things are or have been in their new home area. Your local trailhead will soon have plenty of Prius and Sprinters parked if they dont already. Just saying.
Already that way here in Idaho. It sucks and is really quite depressing if you dwell on it long enough. what’s even more sad is that there’s nowhere to run from it. I used to look to WY as a beacon of hope but I’ve talked to a few friends that live there and have been told it’s steadily happening there too. only place I can think of is to drag my family to the coldest, furthest corner of North Dakota and cross my fingers that the Prius driving latte loving sacks of shit don’t find me there.

and then I wake up and realize my wife would never let that happen
 

mxgsfmdpx

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I have lived my whole life in Ca. Lots to like about it including great ocean fishing, and better hunting in some areas than it gets credit for. That said, it has turned into a complete dump when it comes to people/politics. Too many of both. I now view Ca as a place to work, enjoy while I can, extract the maximum amount of money out, and then bail when the time is right. It’s broken beyond repair. Lots of others have come to the same conclusion.

If you feel like you are overrun by people from California I’ll tell you it goes both ways. Lots of people move here, get jobs in tech and jack up home prices beyond reach for most people.
Exactly. Born and raised here as well and been here 35 years. Have owned 3 homes and luckily now own 200 acres. The last 7 years have been insane. Ridiculous salaries and “signing bonuses” that give them their 20% down on an overpriced house. Something has to give again like it did in 2009.

I’m blessed to have played my cards right and worked my butt off since I was 14 and own 200 acres outright.
 

Beendare

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Simple supply and demand...and the new normal of many people being able to do their jobs from anywhere.

So why would they want to live in a big Democrat run city...or commute in horrible traffic to that same city when they can live in a desirable area?
 

Marble

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Exactly. Born and raised here as well and been here 35 years. Have owned 3 homes and luckily now own 200 acres. The last 7 years have been insane. Ridiculous salaries and “signing bonuses” that give them their 20% down on an overpriced house. Something has to give again like it did in 2009.

I’m blessed to have played my cards right and worked my butt off since I was 14 and own 200 acres outright.
I say good for you! People are, by in large, where they are in life because of choices they make. There is a lot of opportunities in this country for success, but it takes hard work, making good decisions and sacrificing, sometimes for decades, for it to pay off.

I have four teenagers and I am constantly engaging them with questions about what to do when it comes to money, what their choices in education means and pitfalls of not seeing 5, 10 or 30 years into the future, to understand how their decisions now can affect them later.

One for sure gets it, two of them I'm unsure on and one is only 13, but pretty damn smart.

My wife and I lead by example and show them numbers regarding our salary, bills to be paid, money saved, money lost, emergency expenditures and how investments grow. Giving them perspective gives them information to make their choices. Then they have to choose...

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Jbehredt

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I do miss the Idaho and intermountain west of the 80s and 90s....go back now and it's almost unrecognizable. Kinda surprised more people haven't discovered the mountain ranges of Nevada, some of the prettiest forests in the west right there. I don't know how this population shifting phenomenon is going to play out in the long run, but hopefully we can protect and preserve as much high quality wildlife habitat as humanly possible in the process...

But they have. Nevada is the fastest growing state in the country believe it or not. I had to look it up after a Vegas cab driver argued with me about it growing faster than CO. He was right.
 

trazerr

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Feb 13, 2019
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Oregon
A few years back I remember seeing on the local news where people were selling their houses and placing no Californian signs in the front yard. A picture of the state of CA on it with a circle and line through it. I think some of these houses were in Portland which kind of surprised me.

My old coworkers in-laws live in La Pine. For those of you who don't know this town is about 30 mins south of Bend which is where a ton of out of staters move to. Anyways, her in-laws were on the board for their little area. They had 21 new families move in one summer. 18 of them were fresh out of CA.
 
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This.. leverage the newly aquired equity in your home to buy a cheap rental property in your area. Let someone else pay for a home that you will one day own as well as enjoy any added increase in value over time.
What happens to you when the government puts a no eviction order on renters as in Oregon?
 

amassi

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But they have. Nevada is the fastest growing state in the country believe it or not. I had to look it up after a Vegas cab driver argued with me about it growing faster than CO. He was right.
I'm a Californian and most of my retirement age neighbors retire In reno/sparks to stretch their retirement farther the snowbirds buy in Vegas

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def90

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What happens to you when the government puts a no eviction order on renters as in Oregon?

You don't rent to people that do not have stable jobs, the only people out of work right now for the most part are hospitality workers. Besides, the lease ends at some point anyway, eviction orders do not prevent a landlord from not renewing a lease.
 
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