Are we headed for another 2008?

[String&stick]

Coming from a family of farmers, I am always sympathetic. None of my family or friends farm huge tracts of land and most work several hundred acres up to 2000. I am sure there are plenty out there who have done very well for themselves and that is great news. But the average farmer that I know does not fit that description here in Virginia. There is always the stress of getting timely rains, not enough rain and sometimes too much rain. Equipment breaks at the absolute worst times and having to buy new equipment cost more than most peoples houses.

I am not sure that I agree with your math when it comes to the 2022 crops. It will be a tough year to make money this year with the input costs having increased so much. Chemicals, fertilizer and fuel have doubled (tripled in some cases, ie roundup). If costs rise by 100% and the crop prices only increase this year by 20% then my math says it won't be good for farmers in general.

Ah different worlds. . . But the math works pretty good here on the western edge of the corn belt. $7 corn and $14 beans covers a whole lot of expense. Sure prices have come up for inputs, but my farmers are looking at the profits I posted. And those are pretty rock solid cash flows. Things are even better for guys owning land and if they were able to lock in 50% of fertilizer last fall.

I work with operations from 500 aces to 8000 ish. . . The 500 acre guys are definitely on the lower end of profitability but still looking at $200 per acre profit if they raise their average crop

 

[CorbLand]

Stay at home longer, pack lunches, stop the one click buying, stop needing 4 bedroom houses, drive older used cars. That’s just a few ways to save

Yea, some do it but cmon, you have to know that’s rare.

Look around, you won’t see anyone doing what grandpa did. They have to live a life of luxury now.


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I know its rare but my point with everything I have said in this thread is don't forget that there are a lot of people that don't just want things handed to them getting ****** right now.

I live in a cheap, 70s apartment that has not been updated. I drive a 21 year old pickup. I eat out once a month with my wife and once a month for lunch. But, lets throw a dose of reality in there.

3 bed. 1 bath houses in my area are 375,000 to 400,000. 20 year old, 200,000 miles pickups are 10,000. Food at the grocery store is up 15%. My rent is more than my moms mortgage was on a brand new home in 2004.

You cannot save yourself into prosperity in todays world.

 

[CJ19]

And I hope you find a relationship with science and reality.

Whats your science degree in buzz?

 

[Customweld]

I know its rare but my point with everything I have said in this thread is don't forget that there are a lot of people that don't just want things handed to them getting ****** right now.

I live in a cheap, 70s apartment that has not been updated. I drive a 21 year old pickup. I eat out once a month with my wife and once a month for lunch. But, lets throw a dose of reality in there.

3 bed. 1 bath houses in my area are 375,000 to 400,000. 20 year old, 200,000 miles pickups are 10,000. Food at the grocery store is up 15%. My rent is more than my moms mortgage was on a brand new home in 2004.

You cannot save yourself into prosperity in todays world.

You and I have talked about this before. My middle daughter finally got an offer accepted and she will sign papers on Monday. She has 0 debt and is going to have to take on a roommate to help spread some of the cost. She was able to save for a decent down payment, but only because she lived at home and didn’t get caught up in the “must haves”. I said it before and I’ll say it again. I feel for the folks just starting out right now, it’s damn near impossible to compete with the money that is coming in to our area.

 

[CorbLand]

You and I have talked about this before. My middle daughter finally got an offer accepted and she will sign papers on Monday. She has 0 debt and is going to have to take on a roommate to help spread some of the cost. She was able to save for a decent down payment, but only because she lived at home and didn’t get caught up in the “must haves”. I said it before and I’ll say it again. I feel for the folks just starting out right now, it’s damn near impossible to compete with the money that is coming in to our area.

Congrats to your daughter. It is bad here but the area you are in is worse.

 

[kayvon]

Who’s ready for $7 a gallon gas?

 

[sasquatch]

You and I have talked about this before. My middle daughter finally got an offer accepted and she will sign papers on Monday. She has 0 debt and is going to have to take on a roommate to help spread some of the cost. She was able to save for a decent down payment, but only because she lived at home and didn’t get caught up in the “must haves”. I said it before and I’ll say it again. I feel for the folks just starting out right now, it’s damn near impossible to compete with the money that is coming in to our area.

It’s sucks and I’d hate to have to do it, but sometimes you just have to move to a better more affordable place.


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[Newtosavage]

Who’s ready for $7 a gallon gas?

Still won't be enough to keep some folks to insisting on driving their supersized 4x4's, solo, to work every day because 'Murica. They'll pay $7/gal. to maintain the self-image they have created.

Can't wait to see all the giving back to charity and communities and investments in new energy tech. that will come when oil execs are rolling in $130/barrel profits. Yea.

 

[zion zig zag]

Don't feed the trolls, guys.
These are the same people fixated on racism and 'white supremacy' when 19 MILLION black babies have been aborted since 1973, I'd be curious to read/study the dire situations related to that, .001, .002% of 'necessary' situations?

The sickness and hypocrisy can't even be quantified.

And for the record...
In 1992 (we were young!) my late wife was diagnosed with cancer, our unborn daughter was in utero. The doctors pleaded for us to terminate the 'fetus' ..wife and I said 'hell no.'
So, our baby got chemo as well as mom.
Mom lived about two years after delivering our healthy daughter, she's 29 y/o now, 6' tall, a gorgeous woman. I WOULD HAVE LOST BOTH OF THEM.

When you read the horror stories DON"T BELIEVE ALL OF THE BULLSHIT. There are very rare cases when termination may be relevant, but most of the time it's a ploy to justify infanticide.

I've been through the fire with this, I can speak from experience.

I’m glad you had a choice with your daughter. Let other people have a choice about what to do with their body too.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article261207007.html

The control won’t end with abortions, they want to control every aspect of your life. We could very well be plunging into a dark age of theocracy with some of the religious kooks in power.

 

[jmav58]

Ah different worlds. . . But the math works pretty good here on the western edge of the corn belt. $7 corn and $14 beans covers a whole lot of expense. Sure prices have come up for inputs, but my farmers are looking at the profits I posted. And those are pretty rock solid cash flows. Things are even better for guys owning land and if they were able to lock in 50% of fertilizer last fall.

I work with operations from 500 aces to 8000 ish. . . The 500 acre guys are definitely on the lower end of profitability but still looking at $200 per acre profit if they raise their average crop

This. Fertilizer and chem were at a low point and maybe they did double or triple but you’re still looking at $45-$50 roundup with $950 urea or anhydrous at $1400? Cost per acre on irrigated ground is somewhere close to $700-$800/acre while irrigated corn should make north of 200 bu with the varieties nowadays. $600/acre profit is nice. I’m an agronomist and a farmer in Montana so I don’t get to deal with corn and beans anymore since moving from Kansas but those farmers will be just fine.


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[zion zig zag]

Don't feed the trolls, guys.
These are the same people fixated on racism and 'white supremacy' when 19 MILLION black babies have been aborted since 1973, I'd be curious to read/study the dire situations related to that, .001, .002% of 'necessary' situations?

This is so non-sequitar as to be offensive to anyone that can rationalize their way out of a wet paper bag.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

You are wise and obviously have seen life beyond the county line.

If you are born to a single parent home, your odds of entering the justice system are higher than a two parent.

If you are born to a teenage parent, your odds of entering the justice system are higher than to a parent 20 or older.

If your parent did not graduate high school, your odds of entering the justice system are higher than if your parent(s) graduated high school.

If you are born to a parent(s) that have been the the justice system, your odds of entering the justice system are higher than if you parent has not been in the justice system.

Every life is precious but some lives are dealt such a poor hand the outcome is very high that precious life in not going to be a productive member of society.

So, as you champion more lives being saved then be responsible and plan accordingly as you line up to support more social programs at higher tax rates to yourself because you want every life to not only be precious but to have a real chance at success rather as a statistic sitting in a prison cell or being buried at a young age when they tried to rob you.

If you think your success in life was mostly due to your decades of hard work rather than being dealt a hand in life that was well above what most people are dealt in America much less the world then please get into the Big Brother or Big Sister program and spend some time serving meals at a local shelter. When you see a 8 year old kid that is getting one good meal a day and has been in 5 school districts so far then you might be a little more humble when telling that kid years later at 18 to just pull himself up by his bootstraps and work harder. The fundamentals that 8 year old has missed will be a head wind to doing well in middle school much less graduating high school. Nutritional deficits negatively and permanently impact brain development. Brain connectors increase in number when someone reads to you as a toddler.

I like to think I worked hard to get ahead in life. My three closest friends in school each later did time in state penitentiary. One did Federal time. My town was poor but most of us were white and had two parents in the home so people from other towns looked down on us but was not racial hate towards us. We were skinny but no one put cigarettes out on us. We had crappy dental care. Educational opportunities were all public schools that lacked significant property tax support so the teachers were not pick of the litter and textbooks were old and science labs were very basic. I had plenty of safety nets compared to peers I never knew as a kid but were growing up with immigrant parents or in homes with substance abuse. I met some of those peers in college and later in grad school. I realized I had safety nets they never had and most of the power brokers in society liked how I looked and that I was male. So, yes, I worked hard but caught some breaks I did not even know were based on things I did not control and am not even sure when some of those breaks happened. Did I out-hustle the other sales reps on my team to get that promotion or was the pool reduced because some did not look like me so never were my competition? Did I get hired because I seemed "like a fit" with Acme Inc's culture which was not very diverse?

There is no free lunch. If you want more babies then some are destined for bad outcomes and that cost needs to come out of additional taxes and more things taken off your porch and from under you vehicle.

If you are aborted you have a 100% chance of never being successful in life.
Murder is murder, I’ve never jumped onto the republican bandwagon of “abortion is murder, but it’s ok in the case of rape or incest.” Abortion is murder. Life is valuable, and yes I understand buzz’s point about the growing human population on earth, my wife wants to have a 4th kid and I’m not on board but since we are financially stable, debt free and raising 3 (hopefully) well adjusted children of our own we are currently in the process of trying to adopt in order to hopefully give 1 child who may have been aborted instead a chance at life and maybe a leg up they wouldn’t have had otherwise.


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[BuzzH]

Whats your science degree in buzz?

Bachelors in Forestry with additional coursework in Hydrology, Geomorphology, Wildlife, Resource Policy, and Range.

Going on 35 years professional experience in things like wildfire management, fisheries, riparian/wetland restoration/research, forest management, data analysis, writing management plans, data collection across all fields, yada yada yada. Served on wildlife boards, riparian/wetland advisory board, per appointment of Governors in 2 states.

Meet your standards of Science and answer your question?

 

[xsn10s]

Don't feed the trolls, guys.
These are the same people fixated on racism and 'white supremacy' when 19 MILLION black babies have been aborted since 1973, I'd be curious to read/study the dire situations related to that, .001, .002% of 'necessary' situations?

The sickness and hypocrisy can't even be quantified.

And for the record...
In 1992 (we were young!) my late wife was diagnosed with cancer, our unborn daughter was in utero. The doctors pleaded for us to terminate the 'fetus' ..wife and I said 'hell no.'
So, our baby got chemo as well as mom.
Mom lived about two years after delivering our healthy daughter, she's 29 y/o now, 6' tall, a gorgeous woman. I WOULD HAVE LOST BOTH OF THEM.

When you read the horror stories DON"T BELIEVE ALL OF THE BULLSHIT. There are very rare cases when termination may be relevant, but most of the time it's a ploy to justify infanticide.

I've been through the fire with this, I can speak from experience.

I'm sorry for your loss. But glad for the blessing of your daughter.

 

[Customweld]

It’s sucks and I’d hate to have to do it, but sometimes you just have to move to a better more affordable place.


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Absolutely agree. I would love to live where I grew up, but I don’t want to live in poverty. I left because logging died out and I had bills to pay. My daughter is buying her house outside where she wanted to be but still close enough to her work to make it ok. Being young and fluid does still have its perks.

 

[Dirtbag]

I know its rare but my point with everything I have said in this thread is don't forget that there are a lot of people that don't just want things handed to them getting ****** right now.

I live in a cheap, 70s apartment that has not been updated. I drive a 21 year old pickup. I eat out once a month with my wife and once a month for lunch. But, lets throw a dose of reality in there.

3 bed. 1 bath houses in my area are 375,000 to 400,000. 20 year old, 200,000 miles pickups are 10,000. Food at the grocery store is up 15%. My rent is more than my moms mortgage was on a brand new home in 2004.

You cannot save yourself into prosperity in todays world.

Careful with your logic, someone will come along to tell you the reason you can't afford the $600k home your parent bought for 100K ten years ago is because you spent it all on Starbucks and avocado toast.

 

[Cedarsavage]

I can afford my mortgage and don't carry any other debt. Both my wifes and my job are stable and secure. Toys like boats, snowmobiles and cars are paid off.

No worries here.

same I think toys will be cheap soon from people who finance everything

 

[go_deep]

An estimated 2 million couples in the United States are waiting for a child to adopt, an estimated 700,000 children are aborted every year in the United States.
If the argument is these kids don't have a chance, lots of people are lined up to give them one.
I personally know of 3 couples that couldn't have kids and adopted. You have no idea the joy this has brought into their lives, and I'd bet if you asked those kids they'd sure rather be alive than dead.

 

[Yoder]

In this country you can get birth control for FREE. There's the morning after pill, probably available for FREE. If not go to the pharmacy, no RX needed. Condoms, FREE. IUD FREE. Please explain again why killing your baby is still necessary? Here's why: Planned Parenthood makes hundreds of millions of dollars killing babies and selling their body parts. It's also subsidized by the tax payers. I personally could care less who gets an abortion. Honestly I hope every Democrat gets one.

My son was born when I was 19 and I was making $6/hr. I worked my ass off and gave up all my hopes and dreams to provide for him and my wife. Justify killing the unborn however you want but I don't want to hear your excuses. 90% of abortions are due to people being irresponsible and not taking responsibility for their actions.

 

[sasquatch]

An estimated 2 million couples in the United States are waiting for a child to adopt, an estimated 700,000 children are aborted every year in the United States.
If the argument is these kids don't have a chance, lots of people are lined up to give them one.
I personally know of 3 couples that couldn't have kids and adopted. You have no idea the joy this has brought into their lives, and I'd bet if you asked those kids they'd sure rather be alive than dead.

If they are so ready and eager, there’s already 400k or so I’m foster care. 2m is a lot more than 400k, seems the foster homes should be empty by your logic.


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