Vaccine?

[orionthehunter1]

I know two people that have gotten it twice. Once in March and again at the end of October. Both of them had mild symptoms and no after effects.

 

[Broomd]

No I have not, and working in a smaller hospital/ICU, in a state that is second to last for the # of deaths associated with Covid, I just haven’t seen tons of cases. On the flip side, I do have friends, and a few family members that are in the medical profession, in other harder hit places of the country, and from them I’ve heard multiple accounts of young, healthier people dying from it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Always appreciate your take, Greg. Given that you, Fatcamp and others are right on the front lines, it means a lot to hear your take.

A quick story .....
We pulled the plug on a Mexican Riviera trip in September with a couple that are dear freinds, we've done that Yucatan trip many times together, fond memories.

We did some diligence on c-19 in that area prior to our departure and decided not to go. We tried like hell to talk them out of going, they live in Mexico City and went anyway.
A month ago today, the wife of that couple texted us and told us that she deeply regretted that decision, they both got covid at the resort we were to attend. She was asymptomatic, he battled in the ICU for three weeks and died. These people are tremendously wealthy, he had the very best care that entire country could offer.
We're heartbroken, this was a wonderful man, a true friend--gone due to Covid. No underlying that we know of, 61-62 y/o with a few extra pounds. It hurts like hell.
I'm 57, wife 54, both fit and good shape, I run every other day, in fact just finsished two miles outside here in the Idaho mountains. Chances are we'd be okay, but we'll get the damn shot, wife is a dietitan (healthcare worker) so she'll have to get it, and I will too then. Hopefully be done with it.

I normally get a flu shot and have noticed that I never get sick anymore. I literally used to get the flu at least twice a Winter.
We're normally holistic people, so starting the flu shot around '09 was a tough decision, but after being flu-free for many years, the flu shot is a Godsend. Hopefully the c-19 shot will be as good for people.

 

[dirtytough]

Is anyone else noticing that the actual health care workers on this thread are the ones saying how dangerous this disease is and how the vaccine should be taken? While the average Joe’s are the ones sowing doubt and dismissing the seriousness? That’s very telling to me! I’m going to listen to the pro’s on this one. Seems like a better source of info than the random internet hunter that turns a crank for a living.

No I won’t get it.

As for this post about actual health care workers here is one of my experiences with “actual healthcare workers”.

My 10 year old boy was puking/gagging up blood. It was random. Sometimes multiple days in a row, every other, etc. It was just blood nothing else.

He did it 10 minutes after eating 2 cheeseburgers. Absolutely zero food in it. I took pics again and we went in to another doctor. I was certain he was gagging it up. That doctor said to give him an anti acid. I guess his throat has a filter to only let blood through and filter out all the stomach acid and food?

One doctor said it didn’t look like blood. What else comes out of your body that is bright red?
It was 2 weeks of going in almost everyday, and 5 different doctors to figure it out.

Just because people go to school doesn’t mean they are intelligent people.

 

[Where's Bruce?]

I won't get vaccinated because what they haven't told you yet is that almost everyone gets flu-like symptoms afterwards that can last 5-10 days on average...two weeks on the outside. It's a two shot vaccine which means you go thru the flu twice so that's 10-28 days of flu symptoms after vaccination. No thanks...I got too much to do.

 

[Newtosavage]

Kind of ironic that everyone who voted no is alive to vote no because of vaccines.

 

[Squincher]

We all have to make our own risk benefit analysis. My guess (yes, it is only a guess as hard data is not available at this point) is that the prevalence and severity of vaccine side effects will be significantly lower than those of COVID. Keep in mind that COVID has life altering, long term consequences for some who survive it as well ranging from neurologic deficits to cardio myopathy. These are what we know of now, it is possible that many others will come to the surface as time goes on.

Edit: my memory is not correct. I will post correct information in a new post and leave this as is because the correct information does not materially change the conclusions (it was 10 years ago that I last looked into anthrax and smallpox vaccines, so I should have known not to trust my memory). End Edit

Historically, even really dangerous vaccines such as anthrax have far fewer adverse effects than the COVID death rate alone. The anthrax vaccine, if memory serves, had 1 severe adverse effect per 28,000 doses. This was why it was only ever given to deploying military and perhaps a few others going to biologic warfare risk areas--to cause pulmonary anthrax it must be weaponized, and cutaneous (skin) anthrax infections are not really an issue. Death, or hospitalization would be considered a sever adverse effect of a vaccine. At its current rate in the US, SARS-COV-2 would kill 560 of that 28,000, put another 5,600 to 7000 in the hospital, and cause an unknown (but greater than 560) number of permanent health problems. So, even assuming the COVID vaccine turns out to be 100 times worse than one of the nastiest vaccines I know of, it is still significantly safer than getting COVID.

This is like people who argue that not wearing a seatbelt saved a friends life, so they don't wear theirs. Yes, in a small percentage of MVAs a seat belt might actually be harmful, but the risk from not using it is significantly higher than the risk of using it. Of course, this comparison has hard data to back it up, so it is not completely applicable.

Tactical and strategic decisions have to be made off the best information available at the time. Paralysis rarely works out well, however intentionally choosing to hold a position rather than move is a valid choice. Equally, reflexively charging ahead can be disastrous. So, there is not a simple, preformulated answer to how one should act in every situation.

Personally, after hundreds of hours of research regarding COVID (based on a foundation of thousands of hours of education) and hundreds more working with COVID patients, taking the vaccine is an easy choice even though I'm far from an expert on COVID or infectious disease.

Foot notes:
-2% death rate comes from taking all deaths attributed to COVID and dividing but all positive cases in the US. This does not account for indirect deaths from COVID, being people who do not have the virous, but due to a lack of resources such as ICU beds die even though in normal times they would have survived. Excess death data suggest this number equals about 1/3 of COVID deaths.
-There is not good data on hospitalization rates, most of it comes from small samples early on. So while this number should be taken with a grain of salt, it is reasonable that for every person who dies from COVID 10 would be hospitalized, which is why I'm willing to give some credence to those numbers.

The anthrax vaccine is significantly safer than I was thinking, I believe I mixed it up with the smallpox vaccine as I was researching both at the same time while in the military. The anthrax vaccine causes about 1 severe adverse reaction per 100,000 doses. Smallpox is the high risk vaccine. For some context on the risk with the smallpox vaccine and why it was judged acceptable, the more common variola major strain of smallpox had a 30% mortality rate with the less common variola minor strain having a 1% mortality rate.

I will compare the know effects of COVID with adverse events from the smallpox vaccine. For smallpox vaccine, 1 person per 1,000 has a serious, but none life threatening, adverse reaction. 14-52 people per 1 million doses will have a life threatening adverse reaction (I will just use 52/million for the rest of this as this assumption is the least favorable to my position), and 1-2 people per 1 million vaccinated will die as a result (I will assume 2/million for simplicity).

So, assuming hospitalization equate with severe adverse effects (which probably underestimate sever adverse effects of COVID).
Smallpox vaccine 1/1,000 (1,000/million)
COVID 200/1,000 (200,000/million)

Death
Smallpox vaccine 2/million
COVID 20,000/million

Assuming an ICU stay equates to life threatening adverse reaction (I don't have a good source for ICU admission rates, but have came across 5% and given even a death rate of 1% this number is reasonable, so I will use it).
Smallpox vaccine 52/million
COVID 50,000/million

So, even if the COVID vaccine is 1,000 times worse than the smallpox vaccine, it would still be safer than getting COVID. Note, based on the current data it is highly likely the COVID vaccine is significantly safer than the smallpox vaccine.

That's a lot of typing just to say you don't know anything about the long term effects of this particular vaccine.

 

[Newtosavage]

Nope won't get it. I also don't wanna hear I need to do it for the greater good of the "the community"..give me a break and take that virtue signaling somewhere else. "The community" where 65% of the people can't put down a Big Mac to reduce their chance of obesity related issue killing them. Last time I checked heart disease still kills over 650k a year but I am supposed to shoot some ramped up experimental drug into me for their protection? No thanks.

I'm sorry, but this right here is why the US has far outpaced every nation on earth with Covid deaths, despite being the wealthiest nation on earth with the best health care system.

 

[Squincher]

Kind of ironic that everyone who voted no is alive to vote no because of vaccines.

Because of vaccines that were properly tested, anyway.

 

[Newtosavage]

Because of vaccines that were properly tested, anyway.

I understand that concern, but when the top Dr's are in agreement that this process has been thorough, who the hell am I to question that?

 

[orionthehunter1]

I'm sorry, but this right here is why the US has far outpaced every nation on earth with Covid deaths, despite being the wealthiest nation on earth with the best health care system.

There are countries with better health care then ours

 

[Newtosavage]

There are countries with better health care then ours

I wasn't aware of that. I live near Houston, which calls itself the health care epicenter of the world.

 

[Squincher]

I understand that concern, but when the top Dr's are in agreement that this process has been thorough, who the hell am I to question that?

Not one of those top doctors can tell you the long term effects. And the process has not been thorough, as there has been NO PROCESS to test the long term effects.

 

[orionthehunter1]

I wasn't aware of that. I live near Houston, which calls itself the health care epicenter of the world.

Really use the google we rank 27th in healthcare, the only thing the U.S. comes in at at number 1 is cost

 

[fwafwow]

I don’t know if it is possible to know the long term effects of a new vaccine. Not trying to stir the pot - have other vaccines been developed under circumstances of less (perceived or real) immediate need? As long as the vaccine is not mandatory (at least for some), one is free to await (the length of time dependent on your view of what is long term) those results. I also expect the same analysis could apply to any new drug/treatment of a condition or disease.

 

[Broomd]

I wasn't aware of that. I live near Houston, which calls itself the health care epicenter of the world.

That's hilarious. in 2013 Houston held the honor of the most obese city in the U.S.! Shameful.....
We haven't eaten a Big Mac or Micky D's in 16 years. Never will again....

 

[Marbles]

That's a lot of typing just to say you don't know anything about the long term effects of this particular vaccine.

LOL, no, it provides the information to make a decision. What you are doing is the equivalent of demanding a police officer know if a perps gun is loaded or not before he can use deadly force. The odds are good there are not long term effects, just like the odds are good that if someone points a gun at you they intend to use it.

 

[Newtosavage]

That's hilarious. in 2013 Houston held the honor of the most obese city in the U.S.! Shameful.....
We haven't eaten a Big Mac or Micky D's in 16 years. Never will again....

I think we're talking about different things. Houston is far from the "healthiest city" in the world. What it does have however, is one of the finest medical centers in the world. Kind of ironic really.

 

[Newtosavage]

Really use the google we rank 27th in healthcare, the only thing the U.S. comes in at at number 1 is cost

Okay.

 

[Newtosavage]

Not one of those top doctors can tell you the long term effects. And the process has not been thorough, as there has been NO PROCESS to test the long term effects.

Are you an infectious disease expert? Because I'm not. I don't do my own dentistry, and I will listen to the actual experts in this area as well.

 

[fwafwow]

Okay.

I imagine a study found on the internet is subject to feedback that it didn’t take into consideration certain factors that make it hard to compare healthcare across countries. If we don’t universally believe experts who are weighing in about the vaccine, we shouldn’t afford rankings any higher deference - even if those rankings are being offered by the same medical experts.