A couple folks have asked about the data sources on hunter numbers and why the industry says numbers are declining. Generally they are citing
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/fhwar.html . The survey is done every 5 years and administered by the Census Bureau. In 2016 the numbers declined 2 million from the 2011 survey, roughly a 16% drop overall. So on the face of it...yes there was a decline.
Off my dome, I recall the big game hunter decline being roughly on par with the total hunter decline. One big change was budget cuts didn't allow the Census to survey enough people to have valid state level breakouts. Some analysis I did on the mountain region showed numbers were likely flat but hard to now from the survey. CB had this breakout from 1991-2011 but didn't include it in 2016 report. License sales data can be found here
https://www.fws.gov/wsfrprograms/subpages/licenseinfo/hunting.htm. Matt references this data and also links to an Outdoor Life piece on it. License sales data shows a different trend but license sale data is also pretty vague. From my reading of FWS documentation, it isn't clear what licenses a state should count as a valid hunting license. Also states have an incentive to increase license counts because PR dollars are allocated partly based on this count. I've been meaning to reach out to FWS and find out if states that require applicants to purchase a license to say...build points... are counted in these numbers. Many of these folks may never step foot in the state to hunt but could impact draw odds.
There is a pretty good report on public land changes in the US that was done by the Congressional Research Service. On net its a 5% decline but if you dig in it varies greatly by state and agency (
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R42346.pdf).
Depending on where you are in the US, if you hunt public land almost any scenario could be true. It all depends on the relative changes. All that said, the FHWAR question
asks specifically about the act of hunting, so you could want to hunt and be a true blue hunter but actually be counted as not a hunter if you didn't draw and therefore didn't hunt. At the end of the day, to figure out if there is more pressure and hunters someone would need to get both application and issued general/limited/otc license/permit counts for both resident and nonresident hunters in their respective state over time and compare that with available public land changes to figure. The other thing that could drive up public land pressure are folks who lost permission on private. The number of those folks now hunting public is anybody's guess.
Take Colorado deer hunting for instance, CPW shows roughly ~88k hunters in the field in 2003 and 2020. So it'd appear there isn't more pressure or folks at the trailhead (at least for deer, for elk probably a different story....). However, if you look at total applicant pressure, resident apps increased from 89k to 212k and nonresident apps increased from 44k to 91k. Safe to say there are just a few more wannabe hunters or hunt-curious folks. The population of CO grew around 35% over that period but applications more than doubled. Get these stats across multiple states by year, line them up with advent of what ever media you dislike and see if they correlate. Although part of the problem could also be a guy who used to only apply to elk now applies to deer and antelope so he can hunt something. It can be hard to get the full truth.
My personal experience having lived in Minnesota, Kansas and Missouri and hunted in eight different states is the majority hunters everywhere complain about pressure, access and folks that don't live in the immediate area hunting there. I personally haven't seen any change in complaints in my 25 years of hunting. So its good to know some things are static in this world!
This is a great discussion overall with much to brew on for anyone who cares about the perpetuity of wildlife and hunting.