Are we headed for another 2008?

[Gman12]

With the economy in shambles, are we headed for another 2008? Everyone I have talked to for the last year has had similar experiences all over the country. They put their house on the market and within a day or two they have multiple offers all of which are thousands more than their asking price. This is unsustainable. Inflation is out of control, the stock market is going down, fuel prices have doubled, interest rates climbing, etc, I think we are in for a huge correction with housing prices within the next 6-12 months,

 

[Cubby]

Your probably right, but you know what? I get up everyday and take a shower and go to work just like any other day of the year. I'm not giving up yet, I just try and not over think things that I can't fix.

 

[southLA]

It might look similar to 2008 but not for the exact same reason. Housing shortage exists in the US right now and that will likely be the case for a few years. It will have more to do with rates having been kept so low for so long. In any case, we're in for long overdue pain.

 

[Q child]

The economy is not in shambles here in Southeast Alaska. The economy is buzzing. I work in construction and I can't keep up. The tourists started coming back and its been a big boost to businesses. I don't know much about economics, but it seems good from where I am. Inflation is making stuff expensive, but so far my community has been able to absorb it.
As far as 2008 goes, personally we can afford our house on one salary and we have two coming in, so we won't be contributing to a housing bubble unless we both lose our jobs. I don't understand the market more widely.

 

[Patriot2]

Pulled 60% of retirement accounts out of stocks and in to cash last week....

 

[amassi]

These houses aren't being bought with stated income signature loans, many are being bought with cash in our area. That's a sign of a strong economy most places, Interest rates were kept artificially low for so long they had to correct.

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[mtnbiker208]

The economy is still strong in places.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

I can afford my mortgage and don't carry any other debt. Both my wifes and my job are stable and secure. Toys like boats, snowmobiles and cars are paid off.

No worries here.

 

[conley417]

Yes
No
Maybe
I don't know

 

[Bl704]

Like 2008 yes, but (in my view) only in so much as its recessionary. Probably looks more like the 1970s from an inflation perspective. There could there be a big ripple like 2008, if say there is mass defaults, but it won't be from fraudulent mortgage pool ratings and the bundling up into derivatives...this time.

And while some sectors are hot, supply chain disruptions continue, workforce shortages exist in certain industries geographies, inflation and the current administration's policies are the biggest short term concerns.

In some metro areas the volume of homes owed by rental companies another of my concerns...but it carries greatly across the country.

 

[Dos Perros]

I don't see the housing situation as anything close to the 2008 market. Inventory is so low, home owner equity so high, and cost for new construction so high that I think a steep drop in prices is unlikely.

Will price growth taper off? Probably.

Will new construction get cheaper? Eventually. But not anytime soon.

 

[deltadukman]

The difference between now and 2008 is these are all qualified buyers, most with the income to support their purchase, skin in the game with down payments, or cash. 2008 had a lot to do with unqualified buyers that were allowed a $0 down payment due to politics as well as ARM's. We do currently have a housing supply shortage but I expect that to curtail a little when the interest rates climb. Also, I don't see a huge crash in prices because there are too many people that have bought at inflated priced for such an extended period of time that wont just walk away, but stay put, or if they have to sell, the asking prices will still be inflated. We may see some housing prices drop, but I bet unless something major happens, they will stay up.

 

[MattB]

Economy in shambles? You might want to reconsider where you get your news. The US economy is doing well, and the inflation and rising interest rates you cite are functions of that.

My sense is that there is good potential for pullback in real estate values (esp. residential) due to increasing interest rates, but if that occurs it won't look anything like 2008.

 

[cod007]

Are we headed for another 2008?

No, this is going to be different. The great ‘reset’ that was designed to crash our entire system so that the globalists could move in to save us all with their NWO will not turn out the way they planned. Someone has thrown the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalist’s plans and now the whole world is seeing for themselves the depths of corruption that the evil cabal had stooped to.
We’ll be back to a stable gold standard monetary system and many corrupt officials will be in Gitmo.
Well, that’s what I heard anyway.

 

[amassi]

Are we headed for another 2008?

No, this is going to be different. The great ‘reset’ that was designed to crash our entire system so that the globalists could move in to save us all with their NWO will not turn out the way they planned. Someone has thrown the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalist’s plans and now the whole world is seeing for themselves the depths of corruption that the evil cabal had stooped to.
We’ll be back to a stable gold standard monetary system and many corrupt officials will be in Gitmo.
Well, that’s what I heard anyway.

As soon as jfk junior comes back, how's the weather I. Dealey plaza?

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[kayvon]

The US economy is doing well, and the inflation and rising interest rates you cite are functions of that.

These are obvious symptoms of stagflation. Not a strong economy

 

[roadrunner]

It might look similar to 2008 but not for the exact same reason. Housing shortage exists in the US right now and that will likely be the case for a few years. It will have more to do with rates having been kept so low for so long. In any case, we're in for long overdue pain.

Agree with this. The same dynamics that caused 2008 aren't necessarily the same that are causing what we see today. 2008 was a result of defaulted loans everywhere from young adults buying too much house for what they could afford. Today is a result of people moving because they can once their job proved they didn't need to have their butts parked in an office and they could work anywhere from home.

 

[Gman12]

Economy in shambles? You might want to reconsider where you get your news. The US economy is doing well, and the inflation and rising interest rates you cite are functions of that.

My sense is that there is good potential for pullback in real estate values (esp. residential) due to increasing interest rates, but if that occurs it won't look anything like 2008.

Not in shambles currently but steaming straight for a cliff IMO. In my business, our suppliers typically have an annual price increase that is 2-4%. For a year now we have experienced price increases between 5-8% each quarter. We are receiving new price increase notifications daily. The government figure for inflation is way low based on what I am seeing personally. In my 30 years in business, I have never seen anything close to this. Industrial supply business.

Couple inflation with huge supply chain issues, skyrocketing fuel costs, rising interest rates, etc and I do not see how it is possible we are not staring straight into the eyes of a major recession. Obviously, 2008 was the result of a completely different scenario but I think the results are going to look a lot alike.

 

[cod007]

As soon as jfk junior comes back, how's the weather I. Dealey plaza?

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Relaxxx.....sit back..... close your eyessss...yes, go back to sleeeeep...yes, unicorns,... rainbows,...all is normal, all is real.....sleeeep, my friend.

 

[MattB]

These are obvious symptoms of stagflation. Not a strong economy

Not at all. Stagflation is primarily a function of 3 things: persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand. We have record low unemployment and strong consumer demand, so right off the bat our economy lacks 2 of the 3 criteria.

The inflation we are seeing is a function of supply chain disruption due to COVID and global political turmoil coupled with strong domestic consumer spending - not a more structural issue from an economic perspective. Time will tell how persistent it will be, but given the drivers I do not think it will be a long-term issue.