We’re saying more or less the same thing even if I phrased it poorly. All the tests are 1 bullet or one group, all say results are going to be erratic because you hit different twigs every time, and all say “dont shoot thru brush”. Unfortunately shooting through a LOT of brush—it may not be as thick as what some picture all the time, but shooting through tiny windows in a wall of brush many yards thick would not be at all an exaggeration—is as normal as can be in some places. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt, sometimes the bullet actually makes it through the window, but its never “controlled” enough to say why.
Photos for humor, not to make any point. Fwiw both were 250grain 45cal copper monos (barnes t-ez) fired from a muzzleloader at 45-70ish velocity, and neither connected with the deer on the other side. Neither is “brush” and neither was fired “through brush” intentionally, but it seemed a good time to drag them out.
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I don’t have a picture of the tree, but I saw a buck killed by a 30-06 where the bullet passed through a trunk sized about between what’s in your pictures. The shot was probably 50yds with the deer 10 feet or so behind the trunk struck by the bullet. Can’t remember if it was a hardwood or softwood. I know it’s totally anecdotal but I was pretty amazed. I don’t plan to shoot through trees and didn’t run out and buy a 30-06 or anything.
Nonetheless, I’m interested in what science has to say about deflection. It’s a hunting reality for my situation, and while the deltas might not be worth pursuing, physics always does it’s part. I wish there was more data.