Maybe, maybe not. One area I used to apply as a second choice with 100% odds for a decade, all of a sudden wasn't even a sure thing as a first choice. My last year's assured 3rd choice will probably not be a sure thing second choice..maybe not even 100 percent first choice.But if you look at last years leftovers that’s a good start I’d think, if residents only drew say 30% and NR got 70%, seems like that would be an easy unit to get a tag in.
Things change from year to year.