Vaccine?

[NDGuy]

I will likely get it with the impending flight/travel restrictions as well as just being tired of quarantining. My wife is pregnant and due in Jan, it's been a long year trying reduce our risk. We have missed out on quite a bit.
COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects - Mayo Clinic

I am young but the thought of F'ing up my body for the rest of my life from an avoidable disease is worse than the chance of a vaccine having some serious issue IMO. The amount of research, money, and brainpower dumped into defeating this damn bug is unprecedented. They are working off of previous research and everything has been fast tracked because we have been at defcon 1 since March. MERS and SARS have had vaccine research ongoing this whole time but the pressure, need and $ hasn't been there since they were such a low volume of people. What good are having experts if you don't listen to them when you need to rely on them the most?

God just to be able to go and get a tall draft beer with my family and friends without worry would be great. The sooner I don't need to worry about that the better. The vaccine is realistically our only chance of getting back to normal. Too widespread and costly to our medical systems to just ignore it and let it burn through everyone.

 

[Squincher]

Has there ever been a time in history where either of those things were caused from vaccines?

Of course not. But neither has there been a time in history when a vaccine was released after mere months of testing, and as we all know, there has never been a time in history when an mRNA vaccine was approved for use either.

 

[NDGuy]

there has never been a time in history when an mRNA vaccine was approved for use either.

Luckily for us all we should have plenty of options within the next year by the looks of it. Some are mRNA, some are more traditional. They will all do their part in providing a vaccine for everyone that wants one.

 

[Marbles]

Neither has there been a time in history when a vaccine was released after mere months of testing.

You do realize that FDA approval was not required until 1955 and several vaccines where developed before that with nothing that resembled a trial. Smallpox immunizations where being conducted when medicine still used scarificators to bleed people. So, to be factual, there was a time in history when vaccinations where released with no testing at all. Not arguing we should go back to that, but your statement is as ignorant as a gun grabber saying that at no time in history have civilian owned arms been used to defend the nation. It appears to be equally as politically and emotionally motivated, rather than motivated by a legitimate desire to understand the issue at hand.

Did you have this much problem with hydroxychloroquine being pushed both before testing and after testing conclusively showed it was worse than nothing? I mean, we only killed a few veterans to get that data and as me and other vets are "losers" of course their was no reason to acknowledge facts and stop killing us.

Note, I have no issue with the trail conducted in VA facilities, I do take issue with the failure to acknowledge facts once they become obvious.

 

[5MilesBack]

so if you did hold a clearance you just violated your NDA with that little comparison

Common knowledge among everyone with common sense is not classified. But in regards to liberty, you'd sure think it was.

 

[ColoradoV]

A couple very well connected friends (not all us citizens) and I were literally laughing about the Anti vaccine conspiracy folks this thanksgiving. As it is funny...

One elderly gentleman (jet setter) seems has already had gotten his dose. He is heading to a very a few large music gatherings in the eastern block this week. Can’t believe he still does it at his age . To a man every person in on that discussion is going to get that vaccine for themselves and family before Christmas.

Yea another haves and have nots. Kinda interesting so many folks would put choose themselves in the have nots arena.. But hey your choice lol. My choice is clear as my wife is buying international airfare for early next year. Good luck to you holding the conspiracy line. I will find humor in your decision as I am drinking cocktails out of glasses w small umbrellas in them .

 

[5MilesBack]

Did you have this much problem with hydroxychloroquine being pushed both before testing and after testing conclusively showed it was worse than nothing?

It's funny how some people accept whatever data fits their agenda and rejects whatever data doesn't fit their agenda........regardless what that data shows. Like the "follow the science" crowd......until the science shows contrary to their agenda. That's been laughable through all this.

The so-called experts on Covid have been flying by the seat of their pants and making stuff up as they go since it all started. They might as well be throwing dice to get their recommendations.

But what I find even more disturbing for America is how so many people seem to "need" to have government and health officials dictate what they should or shouldn't do with their personal lives.

 

[Indyal]

When the science is driven by politics, religion or ideology, it can be perverted. Churchill spoke of this. Unfortunately, when we perceive that is happening, there is a tendency to ignore parts of the science as you said or throw out all the science.
It’s been said that dealing with this pandemic is like fighting a war. Perhaps all the contrary information that has been disseminated can be attributed to the “fog of war”

 

[Squincher]

You do realize that FDA approval was not required until 1955 and several vaccines where developed before that with nothing that resembled a trial. Smallpox immunizations where being conducted when medicine still used scarifications to bleed people. So, to be factual, there was a time in history when vaccinations where released with no testing at all. Not arguing we should go back to that, but your statement is as ignorant as a gun grabber saying that at no time in history have civilian owned arms been used to defend the nation. It appears to be equally as politically and emotionally motivated, rather than motivated by a legitimate desire to understand the issue at hand.

Did you have this much problem with hydroxychloroquine being pushed both before testing and after testing conclusively showed it was worse than nothing? I mean, we only killed a few veterans to get that data and as me and other vets are "losers" of course their was no reason to to acknowledge facts and stop killing us.

Note, I have no issue with the trail conducted in VA facilities, I do take issue with the failure to acknowledge facts once they become obvious.

I am motivated only by concern for taking this particular untested vaccine. You are the one who seems to want to drag in everything else under the sun. Why don't you just admit you don't know anything about the long term effects of this vaccine that hasn't been tested for long term effects because it has only been in existence for a few months and quit pulling things out of your ass?

I didn't have a problem with hydroxychloroquine, but I didn't take it either. Just as I don't care in the least if you, or anyone, else take this vaccine, but I probably won't.

Really, what's your deal? Can you just not stand for someone to disagree with your position after not taking your opinion as gospel? And don't even start with the "correcting misinformation" crap, because there is no information available on what will happen with the vaccine down the road.

 

[Jn78]

My neighbor was one of those folks who thought he knew better than the global medical and scientific communities. He had a party a couple of weeks ago. Everyone got it. Then he visited his in-laws. His father-in-law died of covid yesterday and his mother-inlaw is in the ICU with bad symptoms and she might die. So, after contributing to his wife's death, he has regrets.

Also, I have a family member who is a doctor. She saw a patient last week who ended up testing positive for covid. There was not a local hospital bed available, so the patient had to stay in Dr. Office while the doctors scrambled to find a hospital bed. Once a bed was found, they loaded her up on the helicopter and she died.

With hospital beds filling up and local economies shutting down again, I will do my part and I will take the vaccine. The arrogance and selfishness surrounding this issue is astounding. People should be celebrating the possibility of a vaccine.

 

[Carpenterant]

I’m super excited there’s a vaccine available. I won’t be taking it myself, not because I don’t think it’s safe, I just don’t want to.

 

[Indyal]

For those of you who do not/will not do public health measures, I ask that you read about typhoid Mary.

By current estimates, it is the asymptomatic carriers who are accounting for 50% of the super spreader issues.
At my hospital, we had to stop elective surgeries, reconfigure certain areas of the hospital to account for the increase in volume of inpatient hospitals. People still get illnesses besides covid 19 and they still need inpatient care.

 

[Marbles]

I am motivated only by concern for taking this particular untested vaccine. You are the one who seems to want to drag in everything else under the sun. Why don't you just admit you don't know anything about the long term effects of this vaccine that hasn't been tested for long term effects because it has only been in existence for a few months and quit pulling things out of your ass?

I didn't have a problem with hydroxychloroquine, but I didn't take it either. Just as I don't care in the least if you, or anyone, else take this vaccine, but I probably won't.

Really, what's your deal? Can you just not stand for someone to disagree with your position after not taking your opinion as gospel? And don't even start with the "correcting misinformation" crap, because there is no information available on what will happen with the vaccine down the road.

I have a problem with the use of obvious falsehoods to support a position, your statement about history and vaccines was just that. If you believe in what you say, fine, but when you start using falsehoods to counter those who disagree with you it brings into question your "I don't care in the least" statement. If you don't care, why use untrue information to support your position?

I have never claimed to know long term consequences, that is asking for information that cannot be known. I have repeatedly admitted that fact. So, as you keep bringing it up, your "really, what's your deal?" question could be asked of you as well.

The unreasonable, 'why don't you just admit that you don't know if there are any long term consequences' would be an easier one liner reply.

We all have to make our own risk benefit analysis. My guess (yes, it is only a guess as hard data is not available at this point) is that the prevalence and severity of vaccine side effects will be significantly lower than those of COVID. Keep in mind that COVID has life altering, long term consequences for some who survive it as well ranging from neurologic deficits to cardio myopathy. These are what we know of now, it is possible that many others will come to the surface as time goes on...

Tactical and strategic decisions have to be made off the best information available at the time. Paralysis rarely works out well, however intentionally choosing to hold a position rather than move is a valid choice. Equally, reflexively charging ahead can be disastrous. So, there is not a simple, preformulated answer to how one should act in every situation.

I provided information on how I got to my conclusions, and even publicly called out when I miss stated something and publicly corrected it rather than just quietly editing it out. In the paragraph about tactics and strategy I was trying to be clear that this issue, like many others, was not a black and white problem with an easily arrived at solution. In hind sight, I probably was not clear at all on that.

Edit: my memory is not correct. I will post correct information in a new post and leave this as is because the correct information does not materially change the conclusions (it was 10 years ago that I last looked into anthrax and smallpox vaccines, so I should have known not to trust my memory). End Edit

Historically, even really dangerous vaccines such as anthrax have far fewer adverse effects than the COVID death rate alone. The anthrax vaccine, if memory serves, had 1 severe adverse effect per 28,000 doses. This was why it was only ever given to deploying military and perhaps a few others going to biologic warfare risk areas--to cause pulmonary anthrax it must be weaponized, and cutaneous (skin) anthrax infections are not really an issue. Death, or hospitalization would be considered a sever adverse effect of a vaccine. At its current rate in the US, SARS-COV-2 would kill 560 of that 28,000, put another 5,600 to 7000 in the hospital, and cause an unknown (but greater than 560) number of permanent health problems. So, even assuming the COVID vaccine turns out to be 100 times worse than one of the nastiest vaccines I know of, it is still significantly safer than getting COVID.

This is like people who argue that not wearing a seatbelt saved a friends life, so they don't wear theirs. Yes, in a small percentage of MVAs a seat belt might actually be harmful, but the risk from not using it is significantly higher than the risk of using it. Of course, this comparison has hard data to back it up, so it is not completely applicable.

Tactical and strategic decisions have to be made off the best information available at the time. Paralysis rarely works out well, however intentionally choosing to hold a position rather than move is a valid choice. Equally, reflexively charging ahead can be disastrous. So, there is not a simple, preformulated answer to how one should act in every situation.

Personally, after hundreds of hours of research regarding COVID (based on a foundation of thousands of hours of education) and hundreds more working with COVID patients, taking the vaccine is an easy choice even though I'm far from an expert on COVID or infectious disease.

Foot notes:
-2% death rate comes from taking all deaths attributed to COVID and dividing but all positive cases in the US. This does not account for indirect deaths from COVID, being people who do not have the virous, but due to a lack of resources such as ICU beds die even though in normal times they would have survived. Excess death data suggest this number equals about 1/3 of COVID deaths.
-There is not good data on hospitalization rates, most of it comes from small samples early on. So while this number should be taken with a grain of salt, it is reasonable that for every person who dies from COVID 10 would be hospitalized, which is why I'm willing to give some credence to those numbers.

The anthrax vaccine is significantly safer than I was thinking, I believe I mixed it up with the smallpox vaccine as I was researching both at the same time while in the military. The anthrax vaccine causes about 1 severe adverse reaction per 100,000 doses. Smallpox is the high risk vaccine. For some context on the risk with the smallpox vaccine and why it was judged acceptable, the more common variola major strain of smallpox had a 30% mortality rate with the less common variola minor strain having a 1% mortality rate.

I will compare the know effects of COVID with adverse events from the smallpox vaccine. For smallpox vaccine, 1 person per 1,000 has a serious, but none life threatening, adverse reaction. 14-52 people per 1 million doses will have a life threatening adverse reaction (I will just use 52/million for the rest of this as this assumption is the least favorable to my position), and 1-2 people per 1 million vaccinated will die as a result (I will assume 2/million for simplicity).

So, assuming hospitalization equate with severe adverse effects (which probably underestimate sever adverse effects of COVID).
Smallpox vaccine 1/1,000 (1,000/million)
COVID 200/1,000 (200,000/million)

Death
Smallpox vaccine 2/million
COVID 20,000/million

Assuming an ICU stay equates to life threatening adverse reaction (I don't have a good source for ICU admission rates, but have came across 5% and given even a death rate of 1% this number is reasonable, so I will use it).
Smallpox vaccine 52/million
COVID 50,000/million

So, even if the COVID vaccine is 1,000 times worse than the smallpox vaccine, it would still be safer than getting COVID. Note, based on the current data it is highly likely the COVID vaccine is significantly safer than the smallpox vaccine.

To which all you do is state the obvious.

That's a lot of typing just to say you don't know anything about the long term effects of this particular vaccine.

What if is only useful if it triggers engagement in the topic, when it is used to obstruct engagement it tends to be the preserve of those who have an ideological commitment to a certain conclusion. Like a BLM activist saying a police officer should not shoot unless he has verified the perps gun is loaded.

It is reasonable for my analysis not to be enough to make someone feel comfortable. Methods of analysis are like a rifle. The more we use them and become familiar with their results, the more we trust them. Just because I trust it, does not mean you have to and there are reasonable arguments that can be made and things I can say that might make someone feel better about their concern or might not.
I.e.
"Has the scope been bumped."
"It is a Nightforce."

It is not reasonable to demand what can only be known by magic (a crystal ball) or uninvited technology (a time machine).

Back to the rifle example.
"You don't know for certain that if I shoot at a deer this will kill it."
"Well, all I can do is look at past performance and hope it predicts future performance because yes, there is no way I can know that with absolute certainty."

 

[Sam Colt]

"So this is how liberty dies..."

 

[Jn78]

I'm very okay with people doing anything they want with their lives up until they start harming other people. Your neighbor is directly responsible for at least 1 death. If he had been drinking and ran over his father in law killing him, we'd call that negligent homicide. I'm not sure how this is all that different.

So (people)don't get the vaccine if they don't want it. That's fine. But also stay away from literally everyone that could die as a result of your actions.

Yeah, you are right. The problem with folks who are afraid of getting the vaccine is they are frequently the same people who appear to be afraid of being lonely and therefore refuse to change their habits and limit social interactions.

 

[fatbacks]

I will not be getting it.... because I just got back from a boat based hunt in Alaska where 4/5 guys got the 'rona.

I know this will fall on deaf ears for the people who need to hear it, but hey, why not try and sway some internet opinions. All of us are fit dudes in their 30' and 40's (smoke jumper, army ranger, veterans, etc.) Dude who should've gotten the sickest had the mildest case. One dude who lived with us all week didn't get it. The fittest guy on the boat cannot walk on the treadmill more than 10 minutes as of yesterday - he was a freaking machine before covid. I had about 5 days where I was debating on going to the hospital a few times each day - couldn't breathe. I am still short of breath and very lethargic. Now it is waiting game to see if/when my cardio and lung function come back. I think it is going to be a long road. Covid is real and it doesn't just mess up old people.

If I could go back in time and get a vaccine to prevent this, hell yeah I would do it. As to the 'everyone fend for themself' attitude that is so ubiquitous on this thread I would say I look at it differently... I served in the army for over a decade trying to make America a better place and if I can get a vaccine to help America get back to normal and help confer greater immunity to society then I am all for it.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

Wow. Cant think of another way to categorize statements like these except purely evil. Narcissistic emotion trumps critical thinking yet again. Plenty of legitimate reasons to consider not getting a vaccine, but those of you that have lost all compassion for others in order to pump your ego and live in pretend freedom land need a reality check. No one is in it alone at this point in human history.

I'll accept the risks and get the vaccine, but respect some of the other opinions for not doing so. Toddler-level emotional tantrums attempting to turn the concept of personal responibililty on its head I do not respect. And before you flame on about freedom and liberty and others such ideals, recognize that you are starting out from the opinion of not valuing the lives of others. You cannot be a patriot (or decent human) if you don't value the lives of your fellow man. Don't trade in your humanity just to be a libertarian fan boy, there is more to being a human than spewing hate and divisive politics.

My only hope at this point for my friends and family is that this economy tanks so bad that all the wannabe_AKs fly back south from whence they came and take their careless opinions with them.

I’m sorry you feel that way.

 

[Jn78]

I also don’t care about other people’s health.

That's a really great outlook on life. . . Congrats on making the world a better place.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

That's a really great outlook on life. . . Congrats on making the world a better place.

The world would be a better place of people took responsibility for themselves and made appropriate decisions that are relevant to them, not sitting around worrying about other people.

 

[Crowmangler]

It's funny how some people accept whatever data fits their agenda and rejects whatever data doesn't fit their agenda........regardless what that data shows. Like the "follow the science" crowd......until the science shows contrary to their agenda. That's been laughable through all this.

The so-called experts on Covid have been flying by the seat of their pants and making stuff up as they go since it all started. They might as well be throwing dice to get their recommendations.

But what I find even more disturbing for America is how so many people seem to "need" to have government and health officials dictate what they should or shouldn't do with their personal lives.

Preach it brother. Since some are talking about mandating the vaccine, while the gov't is going around giving these shots they should yank all the Big Macs, honeybuns & cigarettes out of people's hands too.