He can beat Hillary. Republicans won't vote for her and the majority of independents will go to Trump. I don't see any Democrat winning.
I don't know if you are right. I believe that the novelty of being nothing more than an anti-establishment bully who screams a lot but never really says anything will get old by the time the general election occurs. In a one on one debate with someone who has a brain (which he won't be able to avoid or run away from in the general election) he is likely to be exposed. He will lose the general election and it won't be pretty. Trump is the absolute worst possible candidate that the Republican Party could put forward. He is great at self-promotion. I'll give him that. His biggest issue is that he is worse than any establishment politician from either party about flipping positions and saying what plays well to the crowd today. He will get crucified in the general election if he gets the nomination.