Official Montana 2025 Draw Thread

[schur7559]

This is very interesting. So the released pool can be both - retained as a group or separated individually based on how you apply originally. And it would indicate that my group partner drew as an individual with just 1 point! SCHUR, did your partner have the group code in parenthesis beside his successful tag (released)?

If my partner drew with just 1 point then: 1) the odds fell precipitously (not likely); 2) their odds every year don't take into account the released pool and are therefore worthless; 3) the system screwed it up this year and didn't allocate released tags based on PP like they say it should.

No, my partner did not have the party number next to released, which I thought indicated he drew the tag separately. The first guy I talked to at FWP said that unlike years past if one guy in the party drew a released tag then all members of the party did.

 

[cornfedkiller]

This is very interesting. So the released pool can be both - retained as a group or separated individually based on how you apply originally. And it would indicate that my group partner drew as an individual with just 1 point! SCHUR, did your partner have the group code in parenthesis beside his successful tag (released)?

Same. I can’t speak for my other party member, but my successful draw didn’t have the group number, just “(released)”. So if thats the case and we both drew individually, he drew with 1 point.

 

[T-Rex]

This makes my head hurt.... LOL

 

[Skerhunter]

anyone have the link to the preference point statistics from previous years? I can't seem to find that for the previous years where they have had this new 3 point max system to draw the elk combo

FWP :: Drawing Statistics Search

 

[Skerhunter]

This is very interesting. So the released pool can be both - retained as a group or separated individually based on how you apply originally. And it would indicate that my group partner drew as an individual with just 1 point! SCHUR, did your partner have the group code in parenthesis beside his successful tag (released)?

If my partner drew with just 1 point then: 1) the odds fell precipitously (not likely); 2) their odds every year don't take into account the released pool and are therefore worthless; 3) the system screwed it up this year and didn't allocate released tags based on PP like they say it should.

Im going with options 2 & 3!

I am trying to get it in writing from them. See how long that takes…

 

[Packer9037]

I feel like I’m getting punk’d in this thread right now. It wouldn’t be the first time i was wrong and it won’t be the last. If I’m wrong show me in the regs but you guys seem to be searching for answers to questions answered repeatedly here already.

For simple math, let’s say the state of MT awarded 1000 elk tags. 750 elk tags would go the individual/groups with the highest points and 25% would be awarded randomly to those with zero points. For more easy math, let’s say of those 750 elk tags, 250 applications had 3 points and 1000 applications had 2 points. You’d be 100% with 3 points and 50% (500 tags/1000 applicants) with 2 points.

Let’s also assume 500 people applied with zero points. Those applicants would be 50% too (250 tags/500 applicants.)

After completing that part of the draw, the state of MT awards LE permits. Let’s say of those 1000 tags awarded, 100 ppl returned tags because they didn’t draw their permit. Those tags get placed into one of those enclosed canisters where air is blowing the tags all over the place. And the state of MT shoves all the unsuccessful applicants regardless of points or group into that machine and says who ever is lucky (or unlucky) enough to be holding a tag when the time ends, gets a released tag. These tags are not included in the draw odds. This is how someone with one point in a group with 2 people with 2 points ends up being the only one in th party with a tag.

 

[schur7559]

After completing that part of the draw, the state of MT awards LE permits. Let’s say of those 1000 tags awarded, 100 ppl returned tags because they didn’t draw their permit. Those tags get placed into one of those enclosed canisters where air is blowing the tags all over the place. And the state of MT shoves all the unsuccessful applicants regardless of points or group into that machine and says who ever is lucky (or unlucky) enough to be holding a tag when the time ends, gets a released tag. These tags are not included in the draw odds. This is how someone with one point in a group with 2 people with 2 points ends up being the only one in th party with a tag.

If this is the case then A) this defeats the purpose of applying as a group and B) the draw odds mean absolutely nothing.

 

[Skerhunter]

There is no other explanation than everyone who applied and didn't draw being thrown back into a pool as individual applicants and the released tags being random...good reread the official 2024 and 2023 threads. Guys with one point getting tags and people being split up and only 1 member of the group drawing. It's happened this year in this thread as well.

I don't know where it says in the regs that the released tag draw is done according to preference points but in practice it hasn't been that way the last few years I've personally been applying. Buddy got a released tag in 2021 with 1 point.

Confirmed released tags are not random and are based off of pref points. But it does have to do with how you fill out your app.

I will post a write up later.

 

[Skerhunter]

We have this same conversation every, single, year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Finally got an answer - draw is not random.

 

[Skerhunter]

How about you call Montana fish and wildlife and ask them? Maybe they can explain it to you.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Spoke with them and it is not a random draw.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

My brother and I applied for the Elk Combo at a 1.5 avg (2 & 1). We both drew in the released pool. We didn't want to draw either due to a pending CO app that is expected to burn a lot of points. I couldn't just buy a PP this year, so we went the group route to try to avoid drawing. I called MT FWP this morning and he said the released tags DO go by PP, and that groups are NOT split unless there's a difference in members' applications in some way. Then they could potentially be split.

His only explanation for us drawing at 1.5 pts was that it must have dropped this year from prior years, but he said they didn't have the data yet to know the specific point requirements this year. He estimated a month for those stats to be available. Does anyone know when they historically post them? I think we have a case for a refund if it shows a requirement of 2.0 pts, given that it's still supposed to go by PP.

For anyone in the same boat with CO, I think you can "decline" the tag immediately after drawing. Regs say a full reinstatement of points and tag fees. But deadline is like June 2, so you've only got a couple of days.

You absolutely could’ve just bought a point

I was unsuccessful for the Big Game Combo with 2 preference points.

I applied for the big game combo with 2 PP and Elk permit with 10 points. I did not draw the big game combo. Also shows I did not draw the elk permit, but I think in reality I wasn't even in that drawing. My crew goes to Montana ever other year, so I'll be in a weird point position now.

you must first draw the big game combo to even be put in the permit draw

 

[midwestcowboy]

drew NR Combo with 2 pts, stoked!

 

[Erict]

HERE is the link to get the raw data from FWP. They specify "Primary Draw" for the "%".



*edited to make chart easier to understand, not that I think it will make a difference.

 

[SM1]

I was successful with the Elk combo with 2pp.

 

[MOHunter]

You absolutely could’ve just bought a point

Not if I didn't apply last year. I only bought a point last year. If you go two years without actually applying you lose your PPs.

 

[MOHunter]

I feel like I’m getting punk’d in this thread right now. It wouldn’t be the first time i was wrong and it won’t be the last. If I’m wrong show me in the regs but you guys seem to be searching for answers to questions answered repeatedly here already.

For simple math, let’s say the state of MT awarded 1000 elk tags. 750 elk tags would go the individual/groups with the highest points and 25% would be awarded randomly to those with zero points. For more easy math, let’s say of those 750 elk tags, 250 applications had 3 points and 1000 applications had 2 points. You’d be 100% with 3 points and 50% (500 tags/1000 applicants) with 2 points.

Let’s also assume 500 people applied with zero points. Those applicants would be 50% too (250 tags/500 applicants.)

After completing that part of the draw, the state of MT awards LE permits. Let’s say of those 1000 tags awarded, 100 ppl returned tags because they didn’t draw their permit. Those tags get placed into one of those enclosed canisters where air is blowing the tags all over the place. And the state of MT shoves all the unsuccessful applicants regardless of points or group into that machine and says who ever is lucky (or unlucky) enough to be holding a tag when the time ends, gets a released tag. These tags are not included in the draw odds. This is how someone with one point in a group with 2 people with 2 points ends up being the only one in th party with a tag.

But that's not what the state is saying is supposed to happen. They say the participants in the canister are allowed to enter based on PPs first. If that's their stance, and they say in their statistics that nobody under 2 points should have drawn permits, then I think there's a case to be made for a refund. I also have not been able to find anywhere in the regs that explains how the released tags are awarded.

 

[Packer9037]

Finally got an answer - draw is not random.

Well i triple stamp your double stamp.

 

[Cerickson12]

My buddy and I applied as a party both with 2PP and we did not draw. It’s wild to read this thread and hear that people with less points drew.

I’ve unfortunately never had success with Montana’s draw tag system.

 

[Skerhunter]

But that's not what the state is saying is supposed to happen. They say the participants in the canister are allowed to enter based on PPs first. If that's their stance, and they say in their statistics that nobody under 2 points should have drawn permits, then I think there's a case to be made for a refund. I also have not been able to find anywhere in the regs that explains how the released tags are awarded.

It’s not stated anywhere. I will do a write up later when I don’t have to type it all out on my phone.

 

[Skerhunter]

Well i triple stamp your double stamp.

Can’t do that sir! The released tag draw is a hot mess - I will explain later.