Official Montana 2025 Draw Thread

[cfdjay]

How released tags don't automatically go to the folks that didn't draw with 2 pts is insane.

 

[Bigskybowhunter]

19 points no elk permit again

 

[Sea Rover]

Ok so I just got off the phone with FWP yet again. This is the way I understand it but someone point out if there is a flaw in this thinking. My buddy and I drew released tags at 1.5 points. This means we were initially unsuccessful in the primary draw, but the second round does account for preference points (1.5 in our case) and the second round is also not included in the draw stats (which they should be up front about). So if 17% of applicants at 2 points did NOT draw a tag I’m assuming these are all people who initially drew and then failed to draw their permit so the tag went back in and that’s how we ended up with tags at 1.5 points.

Does this make sense? Still trying to wrap my brain around it. Of course someone will come on here and say they didn’t draw a general tag with 2 points and never applied for the permit drawing we’ll be back to square one.

I didn’t draw a combo general tag with 2 points!

 

[MOHunter]

I didn’t draw a combo general tag with 2 points!

Big Game combo or Elk combo?

 

[Cdnance]

Buddy talked to a guide up in Montana and he said that half, a full 50% of his bookings didn’t draw a tag! Even with having a preference point, bonus point, and outfitter sponsorship.
That’s gonna make for a pretty tight year financially for some of these guides!

 

[Sea Rover]

Big Game combo or Elk combo?

Big game combo

 

[RELIANT]

Buddy talked to a guide up in Montana and he said that half, a full 50% of his bookings didn’t draw a tag! Even with having a preference point, bonus point, and outfitter sponsorship.
That’s gonna make for a pretty tight year financially for some of these guides!

Seems hard to believe since outfitted clients can buy 2 points at the time of app (which was 83% draw odds this year) and unless they are repeat clients or hunted Montana last year could have easily went into the draw with the max of 3 preference points.

Guess 50% of his clients were just in the unlucky 17%.

 

[TimbeHuntin]

Ok so I just got off the phone with FWP yet again. This is the way I understand it but someone point out if there is a flaw in this thinking. My buddy and I drew released tags at 1.5 points. This means we were initially unsuccessful in the primary draw, but the second round does account for preference points (1.5 in our case) and the second round is also not included in the draw stats (which they should be up front about). So if 17% of applicants at 2 points did NOT draw a tag I’m assuming these are all people who initially drew and then failed to draw their permit so the tag went back in and that’s how we ended up with tags at 1.5 points.

Does this make sense? Still trying to wrap my brain around it. Of course someone will come on here and say they didn’t draw a general tag with 2 points and never applied for the permit drawing we’ll be back to square one.

I drew released elk combo with zero (0) points


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TimbeHuntin]

Either the FWP representatives who talk to you guys on the phone are misinformed that the released tags factor preference points, OR the draw system is incorrectly programmed and is not factoring preference points for the released tags despite being supposed to. Neither of these options would surprise me given we’re talking about the MT FWP.

 

[Cdnance]

Seems hard to believe since outfitted clients can buy 2 points at the time of app (which was 83% draw odds this year) and unless they are repeat clients or hunted Montana last year could have easily went into the draw with the max of 3 preference points.

Guess 50% of his clients were just in the unlucky 17%.

In my group alone, one guy was unsuccessful, the other showed as having not entered a draw even though he has his receipt from the website.
Out of us three only one out of three were drawn.

 

[Elk97]

I got a released tag with 0 pts. Elk combo. First time I've tried going with 0.

 

[Rifleman86]

This year more people moved from 1 point to 2 points. The number of people applying with 1 point dropped dramatically this year. I expect to see the draw odds for 2 points to jump back up again over 90% next year.

If somebody is on the sidelines this year, it would probably be a good year to buy your point this fall, then buy another point next year and go in to the draw with 2 points, that is unless lots of other people have the same idea.

I drew this year but will be sticking with my 0 point friends and hoping I get lucky again rather than building a point.

Yup, in 2023 the odds with 2 points was 83% as well, and jumped to 90% last year. I’ll bet it will get a little bump again in 2026.

 

[RELIANT]

In my group alone, one guy was unsuccessful, the other showed as having not entered a draw even though he has his receipt from the website.
Out of us three only one out of three were drawn.

Did you guys enter as a party and choose exactly the same options?

 

[Cdnance]

Did you guys enter as a party and choose exactly the same options?

We all applied separately and chose the same options.
We all were applying to go on a guided archery combo hunt. Bought all our point plus outfitter sponsored.
One guy didn’t get drawn, but the other guy has something wrong for sure.

 

[RELIANT]

We all applied separately and chose the same options.
We all were applying to go on a guided archery combo hunt. Bought all our point plus outfitter sponsored.
One guy didn’t get drawn, but the other guy has something wrong for sure.

That sucks...

 

[Cdnance]

That sucks...

Yeah I’m not sure exactly what happened. The weirdest part is my one buddy who has his receipt and everything b it when he looks up his info it says he didn’t enter a drawing.
He has been trying to get through to FWP but no answer yet.
Randy the guide told my other buddy his archery clients have been reduced by over half.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

Yeah I’m not sure exactly what happened. The weirdest part is my one buddy who has his receipt and everything b it when he looks up his info it says he didn’t enter a drawing.
He has been trying to get through to FWP but no answer yet.
Randy the guide told my other buddy his archery clients have been reduced by over half.

That makes no sense, mathematically speaking. You can buy two points at the time of the draw if you are guided, which would give
You 83% odds, but somehow that guides clients drew at less than 50%? Hell that doesn’t even take into account the clients that had a point already this giving them 3pts and 100% draw odds.Sounds like someone is stretching the truth

 

[Cdnance]

That makes no sense, mathematically speaking. You can buy two points at the time of the draw if you are guided, which would give
You 83% odds, but somehow that guides clients drew at less than 50%? Hell that doesn’t even take into account the clients that had a point already this giving them 3pts and 100% draw odds.Sounds like someone is stretching the truth

Not really sure what stretching the truth would do. What good would it do? Mathematically it makes no sense. Point wise it makes no sense.
However, the situation is still the same. I didn’t fill the forms out myself, but I think we are all capable of doing so. 3 points and no draw, and “not entered” with a receipt seems like a problem.
I would completely understand if they hadn’t paid, or didn’t get confirmation, but to have all of that and still not be drawn seem incorrect.

 

[Jaker_cc]

Not really sure what stretching the truth would do. What good would it do? Mathematically it makes no sense. Point wise it makes no sense.
However, the situation is still the same. I didn’t fill the forms out myself, but I think we are all capable of doing so. 3 points and no draw, and “not entered” with a receipt seems like a problem.
I would completely understand if they hadn’t paid, or didn’t get confirmation, but to have all of that and still not be drawn seem incorrect.

Did the outfitter use your buddies points to try and draw more than one tag? Not sure if Montana averages points or not, but if he applied other people with your buddies points it may have watered it down enough where he didn’t get picked up. Just a thought

 

[fatlander]

Not really sure what stretching the truth would do. What good would it do? Mathematically it makes no sense. Point wise it makes no sense.
However, the situation is still the same. I didn’t fill the forms out myself, but I think we are all capable of doing so. 3 points and no draw, and “not entered” with a receipt seems like a problem.
I would completely understand if they hadn’t paid, or didn’t get confirmation, but to have all of that and still not be drawn seem incorrect.

2.2 points and above was 100% draw in the preference round. Even if your outfitter tried to use a 3 point application to pull someone else up, you’d have still been at or above the 2.2. Everyone applying with an outfitter should have at least two points, you cannot have more than 5 people on a party, so any outfitted party with at least one 3 point app has no reason to ever be below 2.2.

As screwed up as MTs released draw round is, you should have never gotten there. Someone dropped the ball on the application end. Not filling out your own application and trusting someone else to do it correctly is what happened to you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk