Official Montana 2023 Draw Thread!

[kitandace77]

Draw odds posted. About as expected. My assumption is draw odds will continue to drop slightly in the 2pt and 0pt categories but should stabilize. Three years in a row with total applications around 30-31k.

 

[Felton]

View attachment 547026

Draw odds posted. About as expected. My assumption is draw odds will continue to drop slightly in the 2pt and 0pt categories but should stabilize. Three years in a row with total applications around 30-31k.

The 2 point game will drop by another 10% next year.

You’ll have an additional 1000 people with 3 points next year which directly impacts the 2s. Soooo, take away 1000~ 2 point tags which will bring it down to 7500. 7500/10250=73%

 

[Erict]

I know this is in the Elk section, but the Deer Combo draw below was surprising. "Reverse engineering" the numbers gives an estimate of the combo license distribution. :

10,423 - Total NR Deer tags "successful", minus
4,600 - Total Deer Combo (Deer only), equals
5,823 - Total Big Game Combo (Elk + Deer)

(56% of NR deer hunters have an elk tag)


17,000 - Total NR Elk tags "successful", minus
5,823 - Total Big Game Combo (Elk + Deer), equals
11,177 - Total Elk Combo tags (Elk only)

(34% of NR elk hunters have a deer tag)

____________________________________________________________________________

 

[Roughwater]

Anyone else have the website temporarily show that you werent successful for your permit but drew a released combo license earlier and now it doesn’t show it anymore?

I feel like I’m losing my mind but I was texting buddies about it so I have some proof I’m not totally insane. I’ll be turning the combo tag back either way for you one in a million guys out there!

Our group initially appeared to be unsuccessful early on draw day, later in day it showed two of us (both have 2 points) were successful but 3rd guy with only 1 point didn't draw. After reading this post again I figured I best confirm that 2 of us were actually successful and after checking today, indeed we were successful! Glad we were since we have been making plans since the draw.

 

[Rifleman86]

View attachment 547026
Draw odds posted. About as expected. My assumption is draw odds will continue to drop slightly in the 2pt and 0pt categories but should stabilize. Three years in a row with total applications around 30-31k.

12,188 applied with 1 PP in 2022 compared with 9,443 in 2023. Now I realize the ability to purchase an off season PP colors things a bit, along with the “welfare point” but considering that drop, we might see less people with 2 PP’s in 2024 and that will help, even though 3 point holder numbers are higher. Also look at the increase in 0 point applicants who will be barred from buying an off season PP.

I do think the “apply or lose your points” like Montana has is the only way to run a PP system and keep creep under control. Like you said, I think things will stabilize in the 75-90% odds range for 2 points in the next few years as long as there aren’t any more major changes either in legislation or application numbers.

 

[fatlander]

12,188 applied with 1 PP in 2022 compared with 9,443 in 2023. Now I realize the ability to purchase an off season PP colors things a bit, along with the “welfare point” but considering that drop, we might see less people with 2 PP’s in 2024 and that will help, even though 3 point holder numbers are higher.

I do think the “apply or lose your points” like Montana has is the only way to run a PP system and keep creep under control. Like you said, I think things will stabilize in the 75-90% odds range for 2 points in the next few years as long as there aren’t any more major changes either in legislation or application numbers.

I bet 100 bucks that legislation will change to ensure outfitted clients are guaranteed a tag. Or FWP will just give them all tags. They’ve done it before.

Anyone want to take that bet?


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[Rifleman86]

I bet 100 bucks that legislation will change to ensure outfitted clients are guaranteed a tag. Or FWP will just give them all tags. They’ve done it before.

Anyone want to take that bet?


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Haha I wouldn’t take that bet! They are already offering guaranteed tags to large NR landowners next year.

 

[Bugle_Lips]

Received my refund check today.. Has to be a new record

 

[SM1]

I got my refund also. At least it was generally timely.

 

[Steve O]

I bet 100 bucks that legislation will change to ensure outfitted clients are guaranteed a tag. Or FWP will just give them all tags. They’ve done it before.

Anyone want to take that bet?


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Bingo. Keep moving the goalposts, charge more always, and don’t allow anyone to be able to PLAN to draw a tag. What a $$$hitshow Montana is.

 

[Erict]

Well, at least 1 PP seems to be a constant no-mans-land. Surprised they don't offer a "for $100, we'll delete your existing PP so you can get in the 0 PP draw".....

 

[Amos Moses]

Anyone else successful but still get a $4 refund today?

 

[Minute_of_Antelope]

Anyone else successful but still get a $4 refund today?

Yep, gonna go lowball some sellers in the classifieds right now.

 

[Usi05]

Anyone else successful but still get a $4 refund today?

Yes, what’s the scoop on it?


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[Amos Moses]

Yes, what’s the scoop on it?


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No idea, had a bit of anxiety opening the letter thinking maybe I didn’t draw.

 

[BugleMeTimber]

Anyone else successful but still get a $4 refund today?

If you applied for a limited entry deer or elk permit and didn't draw it, it should be a 4.00 refund I believe.

 

[MT257]

I bet 100 bucks that legislation will change to ensure outfitted clients are guaranteed a tag. Or FWP will just give them all tags. They’ve done it before.

Anyone want to take that bet?


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Well if they do it won’t be for a few more year. Legislative session has about three days left for the next 18 months.

 

[kitandace77]

Got mine as well. Total cost for one preference point and big game combo application was about $175 after refund.

 

[mahnster]

Surprised that my refund showed up already.

 

[MIBowHunt94]

Reviving the refund almost makes me feel 1 percent better about not drawing.