Official Montana 2022 draw thread!

[voltage]

Am I the only one that thinks the 25% goes to people without regard to preference points. I think they just chose very bad wording and 0 points will have similar odds to 1 point.

Yes, you are the only one. Check the odds from last year.

 

[Heath Hansen]

Am I the only one that thinks the 25% goes to people without regard to preference points. I think they just chose very bad wording and 0 points will have similar odds to 1 point.

Yes, that is wrong. They specifically want 0 point holders to have a chance so that people don’t have to play the points game and feel like they are behind.

 

[Rifleman86]

Am I the only one that thinks the 25% goes to people without regard to preference points. I think they just chose very bad wording and 0 points will have similar odds to 1 point.

That’s incorrect. Last year 0 point applicants have 70% draw odds and 1 point applicants had 30% draw odds.

 

[Hunterbobko]

The way I crunch the numbers from last years unsuccessful applicants with one point, factor in the guys that applied this year cause they would have lost their points without applying, guys going with outfitters who can get two points and it seems to me 2 points might be lucky to be a 70% success rate and with 25 % of tags going to guys with no points it may actually be better odds to have applied this year with no points unless you had 3. Now next year when more guys go in with 3 points I can even see that not being a 100% anymore. Not Rocket Science, basic stats! Don’t think the brainiacs making the rules factor any of that in.


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[Rknight]

With only 45 tags for the area I applied I’m not too confident that our 3 points will get us there as NR

 

[bsnedeker]

With only 45 tags for the area I applied I’m not too confident that our 3 points will get us there as NR

45 tags total, or 45 tags for NR's? I don't see any units that have a max of 45 tags for NRs. A max of 10% of permits CAN go to NR's by law here in Montana.

If you are talking about the unit with 45 total tags, then yes, you are correct, you will not be drawing that with 3 bonus points! Exactly zero NR's drew that tag last year. If you do you should also buy a lottery ticket that day!

 

[fatlander]

You cannot assume that every unsuccessful 2pt applicant from 2021 will be in the draw.

they do not round up or down, t I’m

you can go in with zero points this year and still apply next year with two.
You buy a 2022 point in the point only period(July-October) then buy a point when you apply for the 2023 draw.

You do realize that point creep happens because more people apply in a given year than they did in the previous?


So you’re sort of right. You can be sure that there won’t be the same number of applicants. There will be more. . .


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[wind gypsy]

Have to believe theres lots of people that have just bought points that were now faced with losing them if they didn't apply this year. I'm in that group, use them or lose them. Combine that group with those that didn't draw with 1 point last year and I think they are looking at a lot of apps.

Say a guy had 1 point and was going to lose it if not applying this year, would that person be able to buy a point this summer after losing their existing 1 this spring, and still go in with 2 points next year?

 

[Hunterbobko]

Say a guy had 1 point and was going to lose it if not applying this year, would that person be able to buy a point this summer after losing their existing 1 this spring, and still go in with 2 points next year?

If you don’t apply this year u will lose that point, however because u didn’t apply u will be able to buy a point in points only period at end of this year then u will have to buy another next year at time of application giving you two points going into next years draw.

 

[Bucks_N_Bulls]

If you don’t apply this year u will lose that point, however because u didn’t apply u will be able to buy a point in points only period at end of this year then u will have to buy another next year at time of application giving you two points going into next years draw.

Correct. But if you had 1 point this year and didn't want to draw, your cheaper play may have been to apply, not purchase the preference point, and then bank on not drawing with 1 point, which seems likely given the number of hunters that will go in with 2 or 3 points. Then you save your 1 point for next year without having to buy one during the points only period.

 

[Roughwater]

Say a guy had 1 point and was going to lose it if not applying this year, would that person be able to buy a point this summer after losing their existing 1 this spring, and still go in with 2 points next year?

That's a good question, I have no clue of course, but a great question

Maybe a lawyer in the crowd will enlighten us. Reading all these posts like "isn't there a simpler way to do this? My we brain is starting to hurt from all this thinking

 

[Hunterbobko]

Correct. But if you had 1 point this year and didn't want to draw, your cheaper play may have been to apply, not purchase the preference point, and then bank on not drawing with 1 point, which seems likely given the number of hunters that will go in with 2 or 3 points. Then you save your 1 point for next year without having to buy one during the points only period.

Yep. You are correct for prob cheapest route. But who knows next year they will probably change the rules again make you buy even more expensive useless points, guarantee to put a outfitters kid thru college and offer up your first born the way this is headed!!! Lol


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[Roughwater]

Correct. But if you had 1 point this year and didn't want to draw, your cheaper play may have been to apply, not purchase the preference point, and then bank on not drawing with 1 point, which seems likely given the number of hunters that will go in with 2 or 3 points. Then you save your 1 point for next year without having to buy one during the points only period.

Not so fast! Tell me if I'm wrong "god knows someone will". If you apply, I'm thinking that's 1K give or take out of your pocket to apply. So then with one point you don't draw, but don't you only get 80% back and so that point cost you roughly 200 dollars VS 100 if later you purchase a Preference point instead?

 

[Rknight]

45 tags total, or 45 tags for NR's? I don't see any units that have a max of 45 tags for NRs. A max of 10% of permits CAN go to NR's by law here in Montana.

If you are talking about the unit with 45 total tags, then yes, you are correct, you will not be drawing that with 3 bonus points! Exactly zero NR's drew that tag last year. If you do you should also buy a lottery ticket that day!

I believe total. LE unit with an outfitter but odds are still not good for 2 of us

 

[bsnedeker]

I believe total. LE unit with an outfitter but odds are still not good for 2 of us

Yeah, that's one of the hardest permits to draw in the entire state. Guys with 17 points have low odds to draw that one.

I don't think outfitter preference affects your odds at all for LE permits, only general tags, but I could be wrong about that.

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[Roughwater]

Speaking of folks who don't draw only getting 80% back, if that number is correct means that Montana is not only profiting well from the folks who draw, they aren't doing so bad either from the folks who don't draw. It's definitely a win-win for Montana. The more folks that enter the more money that comes in.

 

[Fishhunt223]

I thought you got 100% refund with the exception of the application fee if you don’t draw? I believe the 80% refund applies if you draw and then turn down the tags. Like if you are entering for a special hunt and draw only the NR tag but not the special hunt. I’ve been fortunate enough to draw every year, so I haven’t had to go through the refund process.

 

[voltage]

I thought you got 100% refund with the exception of the application fee if you don’t draw? I believe the 80% refund applies if you draw and then turn down the tags. Like if you are entering for a special hunt and draw only the NR tag but not the special hunt. I’ve been fortunate enough to draw every year, so I haven’t had to go through the refund process.

You are correct

 

[160andup]

I thought you got 100% refund with the exception of the application fee if you don’t draw? I believe the 80% refund applies if you draw and then turn down the tags. Like if you are entering for a special hunt and draw only the NR tag but not the special hunt. I’ve been fortunate enough to draw every year, so I haven’t had to go through the refund process.

This is correct, except they obviously keep bonus and preference point fees as well.

 

[Rifleman86]

Well looks like whoever said Friday for results might be right. Don’t think anything will get posted tonight.