Official Montana 2022 draw thread!

[Scoot]

So the drawing is on Thursday. Will the results be posted on Thursday?

 

[j_volt]

So the drawing is on Thursday. Will the results be posted on Thursday?

No one knows. The guy I spoke to said results on Friday.

 

[fatlander]

You folks with 2.5 and even 2 points are in probably in the 90%+ chance range of drawing so I wouldn't be too worried. Now me with 1 point yea, I'm worried but maybe I still have 10% chance. Most other types of drawings I'm in my chances of winning are infinitely smaller. One in a million you say, then I have a chance!

90%+ at 2 points, no way.


15k people didn’t draw with one point last year. Add that to the people that just didn’t jump in last year, and will this year with 2 or 3 points. Plus, every outfitted client can have two points from the jump.

No one is drawing with 1 point man.


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[Scoot]

No one is drawing with 1 point man.

From everything I've read, this one is clear.

 

[NDGuy]

So the drawing is on Thursday. Will the results be posted on Thursday?

The drawing is not on a certain date. They will likely do it at some point this week.

 

[Rifleman86]

I purchased a preference point so I have a total of one. I applied for the big game combo with my target on next year, or even the year after.

I am planning this year's hunts on the assumption I will not draw Montana so it would actually be a bit distressing with hunt re scheduling if I did.

Same exact thought/plan.

I’m betting 40% at 0 points, 10% at 1, 75% at 2, and 100% at 3.

We’ll see shortly how close that guess is.

 

[j_volt]

Same exact thought/plan.

I’m betting 40% at 0 points, 10% at 1, 75% at 2, and 100% at 3.

We’ll see shortly how close that guess is.

I am guessing something similar at 2. However, if 2 points are less than 100%, 1 point has to be 0%.

 

[Scoot]

35%, 0%, 81%, and 100%!

 

[fatlander]

As messed up as this new system is, it won’t last long. The outfitter and guide association will have it changed again, as not all their clients will draw with 2 points this year. Can’t wait to see what they come up with next.


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[fatlander]

45, 0, 35, 100


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[Rifleman86]

I am guessing something similar at 2. However, if 2 points are less than 100%, 1 point has to be 0%.

Not sure how exactly FWP does their math, somehow last year one person didn’t draw with 2 points, yet 1 point was some 30ish percent or so. 3 points was obviously 100%.

I’m guessing somehow top points is always 100% and the remaining tags get divided up between 1 and 2 by a certain percentage. You could be right though.

 

[fatlander]

Not sure how exactly FWP does their math, somehow last year one person didn’t draw with 2 points, yet 1 point was some 30ish percent or so. 3 points was obviously 100%.

I’m guessing somehow top points is always 100% and the remaining tags get divided up between 1 and 2 by a certain percentage. You could be right though.

It’s straight preference for 75% of the nonresident combos and 25% for those with ZERO points.

That one person that didn’t draw is a weird anomaly that shouldn’t have happened. FWP also doesn’t break out in between a bucket so maybe that one person that didn’t draw with two points applied with others that had less or no points and they were the only person with 2 points themselves that didn’t draw.


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[wannakillabigbull]

Not sure how exactly FWP does their math, somehow last year one person didn’t draw with 2 points, yet 1 point was some 30ish percent or so. 3 points was obviously 100%.

I’m guessing somehow top points is always 100% and the remaining tags get divided up between 1 and 2 by a certain percentage. You could be right though.

Hunting Licensing Basics | Montana FWP

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fwp.mt.gov

 

[pdub]

In for 380

 

[Roughwater]

I can't say for sure what I said was right, but it sure drew a flurry of response anyway.
Apparently, there was a huge change in odds from 2020 to 2022. I drew in 2020 with just one point! I know not everyone drew that year with just one point but many did. I didn't follow the draw last year as I made no plans to hunt Elk for the first time in several years. It does appear that if by some miracle I do draw, a lot of folks will probably be pissed.

 

[Rifleman86]

It’s straight preference for 75% of the nonresident combos and 25% for those with ZERO points.

That one person that didn’t draw is a weird anomaly that shouldn’t have happened. FWP also doesn’t break out in between a bucket so maybe that one person that didn’t draw with two points applied with others that had less or no points and they were the only person with 2 points themselves that didn’t draw.


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Not surprisingly I’m wrong and FWP either messed up or doesn’t know what they are doing.

 

[pdub]

FWP does not know what they are doing

 

[slick]

Ya know something that FWP is good at? Not making everyone happy.

 

[j_volt]

Hey FWP, in case you play favorites, I think you are spectacular

 

[Roughwater]

Hey FWP, in case you play favorites, I think you are spectacular

Mee Too!!