Official Montana 2022 draw thread!

[OregonSteeler]

I wonder why they just don't lump everyone who didn't draw a tag in the 25% pool? So people who didn't pull with 2pts and all the people w 1pt get lumped in with the 0pt holders. I guess that would be too easy.....

 

[slick]

That would be so Wyoming of them..

 

[Erict]

I wonder why they just don't lump everyone who didn't draw a tag in the 25% pool? So people who didn't pull with 2pts and all the people w 1pt get lumped in with the 0pt holders. I guess that would be too easy.....

Because the law states 75% to those with PP, 25% to those with no PP. It also states that if everyone with no PP gets drawn, the "leftovers" are distributed to those in that 75% group.

 

[Erict]

Not sure how exactly FWP does their math, somehow last year one person didn’t draw with 2 points, yet 1 point was some 30ish percent or so. 3 points was obviously 100%.

As Fatlander suggested - If a hunter with 2 PP and a hunter with 1 PP applied as a "party" their average is 1.500 PP. (When going the party route, if one in the party draws, everyone draws.) The 2 PP hunter may even have done this intentionally, knowing the odds for last year were slim to none but knowing that this would allow them to go into this year with great odds by having accumulated PPs.

 

[MTHunter1321]

As Fatlander suggested - If a hunter with 2 PP and a hunter with 1 PP applied as a "party" their average is 1.500 PP. (When going the party route, if one in the party draws, everyone draws.) The 2 PP hunter may even have done this intentionally, knowing the odds for last year were slim to none but knowing that this would allow them to go into this year with great odds by having accumulated PPs.

I don’t know about preference points but with bonus points if your party has 1.5 points they automatically round up. If your party average was 1.33 then they’d round down to 1. My guess is a party with 1.5 preference points is really 2. Nowhere in the draw odds are anything for half points.

 

[MnWildFan]

Am nervous as hell boyz.

 

[travis.westra]

I don’t know about preference points but with bonus points if your party has 1.5 points they automatically round up. If your party average was 1.33 then they’d round down to 1. My guess is a party with 1.5 preference points is really 2. Nowhere in the draw odds are anything for half points.

That’s only for bonus points. Preference points will stay at 1.5 pts or 1.33 pts.


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[bsnedeker]

In for 380

I'm going to draw 380 this year as well, see you out there!

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[Fishhunt223]

I wonder why they just don't lump everyone who didn't draw a tag in the 25% pool? So people who didn't pull with 2pts and all the people w 1pt get lumped in with the 0pt holders. I guess that would be too easy.....

This is their attempt at fighting point creep. As the number of preference points needed to draw in the 75% group increases, it will encourage more people to apply in the zero preference point category. For example, if I know I am not going to draw with less than 3 pp, I might choose to put in with zero if I think I will have a 30-40% chance. The trade off is that I am not building points and will never get to that 3+ points to have a guaranteed draw.

Personally, I am happier to see this system than having all applicants who did not draw put in to that 25% lottery.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

90%+ at 2 points, no way.


15k people didn’t draw with one point last year. Add that to the people that just didn’t jump in last year, and will this year with 2 or 3 points. Plus, every outfitted client can have two points from the jump.

No one is drawing with 1 point man.


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You cannot assume that every unsuccessful 2pt applicant from 2021 will be in the draw.

I don’t know about preference points but with bonus points if your party has 1.5 points they automatically round up. If your party average was 1.33 then they’d round down to 1. My guess is a party with 1.5 preference points is really 2. Nowhere in the draw odds are anything for half points.

they do not round up or down, t I’m

This is their attempt at fighting point creep. As the number of preference points needed to draw in the 75% group increases, it will encourage more people to apply in the zero preference point category. For example, if I know I am not going to draw with less than 3 pp, I might choose to put in with zero if I think I will have a 30-40% chance. The trade off is that I am not building points and will never get to that 3+ points to have a guaranteed draw.

Personally, I am happier to see this system than having all applicants who did not draw put in to that 25% lottery.

you can go in with zero points this year and still apply next year with two.
You buy a 2022 point in the point only period(July-October) then buy a point when you apply for the 2023 draw.

 

[j_volt]

you can go in with zero points this year and still apply next year with two.
You buy a 2022 point in the point only period(July-October) then buy a point when you apply for the 2023 draw.

I do not think that is correct (but I hope you are correct). As I read it, you can only buy a preference point between 7/1 and 12/31 if you do not apply in the draw.

Here is what I see: Preference points can be purchased: at the time of application for the nonresident combination license; or. between July 1 and December 31 for individuals who did not apply for a nonresident combination license.

 

[Turkeygetpwnd38]

You cannot assume that every unsuccessful 2pt applicant from 2021 will be in the draw.

they do not round up or down, t I’m

you can go in with zero points this year and still apply next year with two.
You buy a 2022 point in the point only period(July-October) then buy a point when you apply for the 2023 draw.

Yea they changed that this year. You cannot purchase a point during point only period if you applied for draw and didn't purchase a point then.

 

[Trap]

I do not think that is correct (but I hope you are correct). As I read it, you can only buy a preference point between 7/1 and 12/31 if you do not apply in the draw.

Here is what I see: Preference points can be purchased: at the time of application for the nonresident combination license; or. between July 1 and December 31 for individuals who did not apply for a nonresident combination license.

You definitely can NOT go in the zero point pool and then buy a point in the points only period this year. I called f&g to double check. The zero points pool was intended to allow people to opt out of the points game completely and still have reasonable chance to draw a tag. I think it’s excellent

 

[Mdfowlman2]

I’m good with my no point choice either way. I have enough points across 4 states to keep me busy after this year

 

[Cowbell]

Do draw results come out tomorrow. I know they came out the 14th last year

 

[napid79]

You cannot assume that every unsuccessful 2pt applicant from 2021 will be in the draw.

This right here. Additionally, I would think inflation and not having the extra stimulus money is going to impact the number of people who have the cash to apply.

 

[BRTreedogs]

But you also have to add back in the people that didn't apply last year and only bought a point that are now applying this year.
That's the issue with draw odds, it doesn't factor in the people that have been buying points only.

According to Newburg Co has like 72 years of people at max.

 

[huskerelk]

Have to believe theres lots of people that have just bought points that were now faced with losing them if they didn't apply this year. I'm in that group, use them or lose them. Combine that group with those that didn't draw with 1 point last year and I think they are looking at a lot of apps.

 

[OregonSteeler]

Have to believe theres lots of people that have just bought points that were now faced with losing them if they didn't apply this year. I'm in that group, use them or lose them. Combine that group with those that didn't draw with 1 point last year and I think they are looking at a lot of apps.

I'm also in that group. I wasn't going to apply this year as I wanted to hunt MT next year (if possible), but since I was going to lose my pref point from last year; I applied. They got me!

 

[BassAssassin04]

Am I the only one that thinks the 25% goes to people without regard to preference points. I think they just chose very bad wording and 0 points will have similar odds to 1 point.