Montana Preference Points Planning- 2024 & 2025 Elk Hunts

[Erict]

If you’re willing to wait longer to ensure both people draw a general tag at the same time then party applications might be right for you, but if you’re looking for the best shot at drawing next year, both people have a higher chance of drawing as an individual than they will as a party.

NO.

 

[cjadams25]

NO.

YES.


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[fatlander]

NO.

Multiple hunters with 0 points or 2 points have a better chance of someone hunting if they apply separate than they do applying as a party. They’re not at a point level to guarantee drawing, so having multiple names in the hat at their respective point level is better than one (party).

Anybody applying with less than 2 and more than 0 isn’t drawing a bull elk tag in Montana.


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[cjadams25]

Multiple hunters with 0 points or 2 points have a better chance of someone hunting if they apply separate than they do applying as a party. They’re not at a point level to guarantee drawing, so having multiple names in the hat at their respective point level is better than one (party).

Anybody applying with less than 2 and more than 0 isn’t drawing a bull elk tag in Montana.


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There’s a chance because the system is messed up my dad drew with 1 point in 2021 and 2 points in 2023. You can pretty reliably draw with 2 but I’d tell people trying to draw general that they have a better chance drawing with 0 than 1 based on the previous year’s odds.


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[fatlander]

There’s a chance because the system is messed up my dad drew with 1 point in 2021 and 2 points in 2023. You can pretty reliably draw with 2 but I’d tell people trying to draw general that they have a better chance drawing with 0 than 1 based on the previous year’s odds.


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I’m not saying your dad didn’t draw a tag with one point because of a system error, but FWP is saying he didn’t.

Anyone that thinks they’re drawing with 1 point, or a less than 2 average that isn’t 0, is going to be sad in April. Based off the people that applied last year, there’s going to 18,000 people who didn’t draw last year with two points. That’s not accounting for the people that bought a point this fall and plan buy another at the application or those that will buy 2 points at the app because of the outfitter point. There are only 17,000 elk tags. 25 percent of them have to go to people with 0 points. That’s not accounting for the people that bought a point this fall and plan buy another at the application or those that will buy 2 points at the app because of the outfitter pool.

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=108844

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[Erict]

75% of NR combo licenses are issued based on the application Preference Points (PP), rounded to the third decimal. An individual or group with 3.000 PP draws before 2.999, 2.998, etc. Everyone with 3.000 draws, so let's not even discuss them.

25% of NR combo licenses are issued based on having 0 PP.

Common "tiebreakers" are when multiple applications have 2.000 or 0.000 PP average. This is where some applicants will be selected, while others do not, even though they have the same average PP. Montana Code states that if one member of a party gets selected for a license. I find it hard to believe that Montana can not "award" every member of a group a license, if the group is drawn (Note that a member of a party can be automatically removed from the group application if they make a mistake).

Does anyone know, FOR A 100% FACT, if group applications are put into the draw as only a single entry? In other words, if there are 3 hunters, does that application go in to the draw as 1, or as 3 chances? This is why I say that it makes no differences if you enter as an individual or group. If no one knows, I'll even call them to confirm.

Montana FWP appears to have recently updated some website pages, so read up on BP and PP HERE.

 

[cjadams25]

I’m not saying your dad didn’t draw a tag with one point because of a system error, but FWP is saying he didn’t.

Anyone that thinks they’re drawing with 1 point, or a less than 2 average that isn’t 0, is going to be sad in April. Based off the people that applied last year, there’s going to 18,000 people who didn’t draw last year with two points. That’s not accounting for the people that bought a point this fall and plan buy another at the application or those that will buy 2 points at the app because of the outfitter point. There are only 17,000 elk tags. 25 percent of them have to go to people with 0 points. That’s not accounting for the people that bought a point this fall and plan buy another at the application or those that will buy 2 points at the app because of the outfitter pool.

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=108844

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I know you’re not saying he didn’t draw and yeah I know according to the numbers you’re not supposed to be able to. Just trying to point out the fact that there’s something wrong with the way they do the draw system here where people who have drawn on 1 point and sometimes people apply as a party and only one gets drawn. The whole thing seems haywire to me. It’s probably time to do some sort of update to how the system processes the applications. I wouldn’t be surprised if the increasing number of applications is causing issues.

 

[fatlander]

This year it’ll be worse as far as odds and applications.

Given the 18k people with 2 points that didn’t draw, and knowing there’s only 17,000 tags before you subtract out the 4250 that must go to 0 points; at the very least, 5250 people aren’t drawing at the 2 point level.

That’s more than 3x the amount of unsuccessful applications at the 2 point level than last 2023.


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[cjadams25]

75% of NR combo licenses are issued based on the application Preference Points (PP), rounded to the third decimal. An individual or group with 3.000 PP draws before 2.999, 2.998, etc. Everyone with 3.000 draws, so let's not even discuss them.

25% of NR combo licenses are issued based on having 0 PP.

Common "tiebreakers" are when multiple applications have 2.000 or 0.000 PP average. This is where some applicants will be selected, while others do not, even though they have the same average PP. Montana Code states that if one member of a party gets selected for a license. I find it hard to believe that Montana can not "award" every member of a group a license, if the group is drawn (Note that a member of a party can be automatically removed from the group application if they make a mistake).

Does anyone know, FOR A 100% FACT, if group applications are put into the draw as only a single entry? In other words, if there are 3 hunters, does that application go in to the draw as 1, or as 3 chances? This is why I say that it makes no differences if you enter as an individual or group. If no one knows, I'll even call them to confirm.

Montana FWP appears to have recently updated some website pages, so read up on BP and PP HERE.

Thanks for the link I’ll have to check it out if they’ve made changes or clarifications in the general draw

 

[cjadams25]

This year it’ll be worse as far as odds and applications.

Given the 18k people with 2 points that didn’t draw, and knowing there’s only 17,000 tags before you subtract out the 4250 that must go to 0 points; at the very least, 5250 people aren’t drawing at the 2 point level.

That’s more than 3x the amount of unsuccessful applications at the 2 point level than last 2023.


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Yeah I sense point creep in the future of general tag applications. Choice of weapon and season will inevitably follow. Our days of hunting all the general units from September to December are numbered.

 

[Steve O]

What a mental gymnastics nightmare this system is.

 

[cjadams25]

What a mental gymnastics nightmare this system is.

Amen to that brother


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[BULLBLASTER]

This year it’ll be worse as far as odds and applications.

Given the 18k people with 2 points that didn’t draw, and knowing there’s only 17,000 tags before you subtract out the 4250 that must go to 0 points; at the very least, 5250 people aren’t drawing at the 2 point level.

That’s more than 3x the amount of unsuccessful applications at the 2 point level than last 2023.


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How do you figure 18000 people with 2 points didnt draw? There was only 10,259 apps and 8612 were successfull. That leaves less than 1700 with 2 points that didnt draw and would presumably go in with 3 this year.

 

[fatlander]

How do you figure 18000 people with 2 points didnt draw? There was only 10,259 apps and 8612 were successfull. That leaves less than 1700 with 2 points that didnt draw and would presumably go in with 3 this year.

You’re correct. I did bad maths.


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[Tman24]

Just trying to point out the fact that there’s something wrong with the way they do the draw system here where people who have drawn on 1 point and sometimes people apply as a party and only one gets drawn. The whole thing seems haywire to me.

I think that comes from them issuing the returned tags from NRs that only want to hunt limited entry. It all happens during the draw and everyone goes into those as an individual.
Last time I applied to MT, during the draw it said I was unsuccessful, then I was successful.
I called and the lady said I ended up getting a returned tag during the draw process.

 

[cjadams25]

Such a weird draw system. I can’t believe people return general tags when they only get 80% back and lose their points


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[ndbuck09]

sometimes folks would rather hunt a general hunt they know better in their home state than a general hunt that's 8 hrs away one-way and in an area known marginally well. The fuel expense alone makes the 20% donation worth it. But they apply because they have a permit they would like to hunt, which would be worth the investment of fuel money due to better hunting than the general area in their home state they know well.

 

[160andup]

Such a weird draw system. I can’t believe people return general tags when they only get 80% back and lose their points

80% starts to look good if you draw another tag in a state that has 0% refund option and only have time to hunt 1...

 

[DonV]

I am a NR, I got my first point for MT elk last year (11/4/23). If I understand correctly I can buy another point this year before I apply for the draw. I am applying alone, what are my odds of drawing this year?

 

[Steve O]

I am a NR, I got my first point for MT elk last year (11/4/23). If I understand correctly I can buy another point this year before I apply for the draw. I am applying alone, what are my odds of drawing this year?