Montana Preference Points Planning- 2024 & 2025 Elk Hunts

[RELIANT]

My question is how is there any way to get more than 2 points from here on out?? No Non Resident will ever have 3 or more Preference points correct?

One of the alleged goals of the rule changes last year was to attempt to get the system back to the standard 2 points needed to draw and keep the system from inflating to 3 points.

Although allegedly 16% didnt draw with 2 points this year so the creep is happening.

 

[realunlucky]

One of the alleged goals of the rule changes last year was to attempt to get the system back to the standard 2 points needed to draw and keep the system from inflating to 3 points.

Although allegedly 16% didnt draw with 2 points this year so the creep is happening.

I had two points and didn't draw

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[Fowl Play]

There is only way I know of to guarantee you get your Montana general tag in 2025 on a DIY hunt.

Party 1: Keep your current plan

Party 2: All members move to Montana in 2024 and buy 2025 OTC tags

 

[Felton]

One of the alleged goals of the rule changes last year was to attempt to get the system back to the standard 2 points needed to draw and keep the system from inflating to 3 points.

Although allegedly 16% didnt draw with 2 points this year so the creep is happening.

I’m curious where did the 16% come from?

I see it now. Sorry I wasn’t all fought up.

 

[Erict]

Although allegedly 16% didnt draw with 2 points this year so the creep is happening.

Please quote your source for this information. The draw was just held yesterday so I find it hard to believe there are any accurate estimates yet.

 

[Felton]

Please quote your source for this information. The draw was just held yesterday so I find it hard to believe there are any accurate estimates yet.

Here ya go, post 588

Official Montana 2023 Draw Thread!

I spoke with the FWP prior to doing a party app, and what ends up happening usually is someone in the group does not check the boxes correctly through the entire application process. FWP will go in a separate the applications based on what was selected and allow people to still be in the draw as...

rokslide.com

 

[CMF]

That is a fking joke. So realistically guys are paying hundreds of dollars just to even have a chance at a LE tag unless they wanna go shoot a spike/forky every year.

I don't even mess with the LE, too many better states that I plan to go for a biggun. Yep, just spike and forkys in the generals

 

[CMF]

I had a great time in MT in 2021, and had originally made plans to go back this year or next, but their change in prices and strategy kind of pushed me away. It's just easier to plan in other states. For such a good amount of general hunting, MT makes it ridiculously hard to plan.
I'm going to look a the odds after this year, but the next time I go, if nothing changes, I'm probably just going to plan on drawing at 0pp and have a backup plan if not.

 

[DonV]

I just bought an elk preference point today ($100 fee). I have never applied for elk in MT. I am trying to get drawn asap.

1. Was that a mistake? I have read that draw odds with 1 point are 0%.

2. What if you just bought a point each year, and did not apply? It seems this would have been mentioned as a strategy so I am guessing you lose point if you do not apply for an elk combo license.

 

[Felton]

1.) Not a mistake. I forget what percent 0 points have but is like 40-50%. Bc they allocate 25% of all NR elk tags to people with 0 points. Then the remaining tags go to 3 point holders and down to the 2 point holders. They run out of tags below that.

2.) you will loose your point if you don’t apply.

So you just bought your point. You should have about a 75% chance next year of getting drawn if you buy your second point when you apply next year.

I did the same thing and got drawn this year. I purchased a point in December of 22 and then again when I applied this year, thus giving me 2 points.

 

[kitandace77]

I just bought an elk preference point today ($100 fee). I have never applied for elk in MT. I am trying to get drawn asap.

1. Was that a mistake? I have read that draw odds with 1 point are 0%.

2. What if you just bought a point each year, and did not apply? It seems this would have been mentioned as a strategy so I am guessing you lose point if you do not apply for an elk combo license.

Agreed with Felton. If you want to hunt next year - buy a point when you apply and you'll have roughly a 75% chance of drawing. If you don't want to hunt next year, apply but don't buy another point and you'll have 0% chance of drawing unless if Montana changes something drastically with their draw system (which is always a possibility).

 

[DonV]

Got it, I did not know that the point you get next year counts for that year. That makes a huge difference. Most confusing point system by far!

 

[TradLife406]

Yall over thinking it. Just buy a sportsman's with bear package and you're general elk is included. Obviously apply for a glory tag in March.

 

[DonV]

tradlife406 how much does that cost a NR? I am having trouble finding anything about that tag for a NR

 

[Felton]

He’s joking…

 

[DonV]

ahh, thanks! I believe the sportsmans package is for resident only

 

[Felton]

He’s also from Montana so it probably works for him.

 

[cjadams25]

I know there has been multiple threads on this topic, but obviously Montana has become a very difficult state to plan a hunt a couple years out, with the recent preference point changes. Just trying to make sure I have a good understanding of how the system works now. A party of four of us has been planning to hunt a specific unit for a while now, and we're looking at hunting two of us in 2024 and two in 2025. Current situation is 1 preference point for everyone. With the dates we want to hunt, goal is to maximize odds of not drawing before we want to, and also maximize our odds of getting the licenses in the specific years we want to go. In order to achieve this, my plan is as follows:

Party 1 (2024 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license this year, 2023, without purchasing a preference point. This gives best odds of not drawing, and the current preference point is maintained (without drawing ideally). In 2024, purchase a preference point and apply, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.

Party 2 (2025 hunt): Do not apply this year, lose the current preference point. Buy a preference point in 2024. Buy a preference point and apply for an elk combination license in 2025, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.

Does this strategy make sense to give us the best odds to pull the licenses in the years we want, being we already have a preference point?

Thanks for any help!

The problem with this is you have a better chance of drawing with 0 preference points than with one preference point according to draw statistics from last year. Also to all the people saying to apply for a difficult draw unit and take the refund when you don't draw, drawing the general tag resets your preference points to 0 even if you send your general license back for the 80% refund. I would suggest having the party you want to draw for 2024 buy a point this year, and have the 2025 group not apply, but buy a point after the draw comes out between July 1 and December 31 and buy an additional point for the draw next year.

Tldr:
2024 group: buy a point and apply this year (expect to draw with 2 points)
2025 group: do not apply this year, but buy a point, next year apply and buy a point (expect to draw with 2 points)

PS: make sure to apply as individuals rather than a party it will help everyone draw

 

[ndbuck09]

sorry if it makes you recap the thread but can you provide more color on the apply as individuals rather than a party to help everyone draw? Does Montana loop through individual apps before party apps or in some other way prioritize individual?

 

[cjadams25]

sorry if it makes you recap the thread but can you provide more color on the apply as individuals rather than a party to help everyone draw? Does Montana loop through individual apps before party apps or in some other way prioritize individual?

It depends on what you’re trying to do. If you’re willing to wait longer to ensure both people draw a general tag at the same time then party applications might be right for you, but if you’re looking for the best shot at drawing next year, both people have a higher chance of drawing as an individual than they will as a party. Montana’s draw system is flawed just perusing the forums today I saw multiple people who applied as a party and one member drew while another member didn’t. This seems to be more prevalent in the permit drawings so maybe it’s less of an issue for a general tag. Basically what I’m trying to say is they should both have around 87% draw odds as individuals while it would be slightly lower as a party. While if one of them doesn’t draw, then they can recycle into the 2025 party and have a guarantee to drawing that year worst case scenario. I know it’s not the same state, but my brother and dad have been applying for New Mexico (where they’re both residents) elk tags as a party for several years and this year they both applied as individuals and drew the same area the first time they tried as individuals. Food for thought


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