Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[3325]

I just watched a horse auction with my wife. 55 some odd horses, average price was $30k+ with a few topping $100k. Folks still have lots of disposable income.

Are those types more likely to hunt on private leases and Indian Reservations?

 

[MattB]

It’s this or “I’m wanting to hunt CO next year, what units does everyone recommend? Not looking for honey holes…”

Personally I find these sorts of discussions to be more intellectually pleasing. If everyone agreed it wouldn’t be much of a discussion would it?

I like the ones that start with "I feel...".

 

[MuleDeerMike]

The bubble will keep growing until Instagram and YouTube ban pictures and videos of dead animals on their platforms. The boomers are aging out, but plenty of young people in their 20s and 30s who are obsessed with social media are discovering these hunting personalities every year and people in their 20s and 30s love adventure, love attention and they love spending money.

 

[dieselchessy]

Are those types more likely to hunt on private leases and Indian Reservations?

Could go either way. I'm sure the folks buying $100K horses are probably hitting up governor tags and Indiana reservation hunts, but them guys who's wife just blew $30k on a horse may very well be licking their wounds and hunting public lands.

 

[MattB]

Weird, Idaho couldn't give away non resident tags and even had to lower prices. You could go to Idaho Thanksgiving week and still buy 2 deer tags. You could hunt Montana every year.

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This Idaho?

"Just over 29,000 [deer and elk] tags were up for grabs..... By the end of the day, nearly all the tags were sold out amid record demand, according to the agency. The experience prompted some hunters to call on Fish and Game to change the way it handles the yearly sale."

https://www.idahostatesman.com/outdoors/hunting/article269669831.html

 

[Grundy53]

This Idaho?

"Just over 29,000 [deer and elk] tags were up for grabs..... By the end of the day, nearly all the tags were sold out amid record demand, according to the agency. The experience prompted some hunters to call on Fish and Game to change the way it handles the yearly sale."

https://www.idahostatesman.com/outdoors/hunting/article269669831.html

Yeah, that Idaho.

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[3325]

Maybe international hunts will become more common if airfares drop, or Alaska, or something like that. Just some thoughts.

Maybe a stag hunt in Argentina or New Zealand will replace an elk hunt in the Rockies? But some places in Africa have become a political nightmare.

 

[CorbLand]

That's where you and I fundamentally disagree on the topic.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

Each generation is a product of their environment...they are not all inherently the same, that's not human nature.

When someone can factually prove to me that a generation was harder working and more dedicated than the last, I may agree with you but not until then. Ideals and priorities may change but the concept of some people are hard workers and some are not, some will succeed in life and some will not. That largely stays the same regardless of the generation. You can go back 150 years and that held and still holds true.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

I've applied in every single western state for almost all species for 12 years (im a Millennial by demographics) and there is zero data from looking at the point systems that there is any falling demand whatsoever! Every single states points systems for nearly every species shows that the resource is much more limited than the demand and that demand continues to increase.

While im open to the idea that demographics in the next decade could change that there simply isn't anything to suggest its the base case moving forward.

My base case is that even your home state residency might not be enough to guarantee you an OTC tag in the coming decade. Social Media and all the YouTube Hunters put the nail in the coffin 5 years ago and its only begun...

On a positive note we should retain our right to hunt if there remains enough of us willing to fight for it...

 

[LoggerDan]

@CorbLand

your opinion would change if you worked in the logging woods. Most ain’t worth a **** full of cold piss.

 

[CorbLand]

@CorbLand

your opinion would change if you worked in the logging woods. Most ain’t worth a **** full of cold piss.

Yep and I bet the generation before you said the same thing about your generation too.

 

[Urakunu]

Lots of talking heads saying this next recession will be bad. Recession sure but it won’t be another 2008 simply due to one fact; there are much less high interest rate mortgages out there…the percentages are significant.

Now if we have a significant world event like Biden dragging us into war with Russia or China…then all bets are off.

I’m not worried….the LGBTQ’s in the US will all enlist and become a bad ass military force to keep us all safe. Grin

While you are correct about lower rates you have a 30% increase of home prices from 2020 to 2022 along with higher rents driven by this increase. I believe it's quite possible 2008 repeats itself. We go through these cycles every couple years and we are overdue at this point, which makes me think the correction will be significant.

 

[sacklunch]

When someone can factually prove to me that a generation was harder working and more dedicated than the last, I may agree with you but not until then. Ideals and priorities may change but the concept of some people are hard workers and some are not, some will succeed in life and some will not. That largely stays the same regardless of the generation. You can go back 150 years and that held and still holds true.

Yeah, because Gen Z is overall equally as strong (mentally and physically) and hard working (physically, because hunting is that) as our grandparents/the WWII generation

 

[Still Hunter]

I am of the opinion that there is always going to be a "new crop" of hunters each year. Especially Archery hunters. It's a fad still. However, I don't see a large percentage of the "New Crops" ever making it to annual repetitive Hunters. Look at the Classified Adds in here. How many one time two time hunters are dumping their $2000 dollar top of the line clothing apparel, just hoping to recoup 95% of their original money they dolled out. They realized they don't want to work that hard, on a dadgum hunt. I mean how many times do we have newbies wanting "all the essential gear" to hunt elk? They spent 3 to 5 grand getting set up for maybe two to three years max. And now, they have all the gear but the chance's to draw and the number of tags are going down while fees are going up. Only the "die-hards" will stay at it.

 

[CorbLand]

Yeah, because Gen Z is overall equally as strong (mentally and physically) and hard working (physically, because hunting is that) as our grandparents/the WWII generation

I don’t know man. Had a lot of friends that signed that paper to go fight after 9/11. Gen Z has never faced that level of need or challenge. Maybe when that time comes they will step up and meet it. Personally, I hope we never do see that time.

This may be the major difference in my opinion. The things that we gauge what makes people “tough” both physically and mentally, I hope generations after them never have to prove they are capable of those things. I have a high pain tolerance but I don’t intentionally hammer a nail through my hand to prove it.

My mom is the toughest person I know. I hope that my future kids or my nieces or nephews never have to see their moms be as tough as mine was/is. Doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of being that way.

Hard work and dedication is not just physical…
As for mentally tough. I have seen a lot of older generations break down over some pretty trivial things too…

But we will have to agree to disagree.

 

[Bubblehide]

I am of the opinion that there is always going to be a "new crop" of hunters each year. Especially Archery hunters. It's a fad still. However, I don't see a large percentage of the "New Crops" ever making it to annual repetitive Hunters. Look at the Classified Adds in here. How many one time two time hunters are dumping their $2000 dollar top of the line clothing apparel, just hoping to recoup 95% of their original money they dolled out. They realized they don't want to work that hard, on a dadgum hunt. I mean how many times do we have newbies wanting "all the essential gear" to hunt elk? They spent 3 to 5 grand getting set up for maybe two to three years max. And now, they have all the gear but the chance's to draw and the number of tags are going down while fees are going up. Only the "die-hards" will stay at it.

Maybe those guys are just smart and replacing their gear once every year or two, at a 5% cost.

 

[Pacific_Fork]

Yea those dudes are worse than women who need a new purse every 6 months. There’s a strong correlation between shit hunters and those you buy the latest and greatest apparel every year.

 

[Customweld]

Weird, Idaho couldn't give away non resident tags and even had to lower prices. You could go to Idaho Thanksgiving week and still buy 2 deer tags. You could hunt Montana every year.

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Man, those were the days huh?!

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I think its too early to make a decision. Carpayment defaults are at the highest rate in like 5 years, cranking up interest rates hasn't really slowed inflation so they will have to crank those up some more. Market has been shit so far this year...I think we are a long way from the bottom of this recession. I have zero confidence the current administration can find its way out of wet paper bag much less a recession. Other than changing the definition of recession to suite their narrative. I am going to hold my opinion until the economy hits bottom..

 

[HuntHarder]

@CorbLand

your opinion would change if you worked in the logging woods. Most ain’t worth a **** full of cold piss.

Thank you for your service...