Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[eye_zick]

What truck costs 100k??

In Idaho and Utah we have seen truck prices stay right at or sell above msrp for at least 2 years. Dodges, Fords, and Chevy all have trucks above the 100K mark.

 

[Jethro]

I'm not aware of any facts/numbers/stats that would indicate western hunting participation is decreasing. Not even slightly. I do not agree that the bubble has burst or is shrinking.

 

[Grundy53]

The only way I see the current demand change is if we have another 2008.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[cfdjay]

IMO Western hunting is going through what whitetail hunting went through in the 90s with the emergence of Video Hunting and it being "trendy". The changes for the big buck states compounded drastically and has somewhat leveled off but in no way has gotten "better". Land is at a premium and on a lot of levels contributing to the western influx. 5-6 years to draw an Iowa deer tag with about $1000 in tags and points invested. Many people choose to go west instead.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

IMO Western hunting is going through what whitetail hunting went through in the 90s with the emergence of Video Hunting and it being "trendy". The changes for the big buck states compounded drastically and has somewhat leveled off but in no way has gotten "better". Land is at a premium and on a lot of levels contributing to the western influx. 5-6 years to draw an Iowa deer tag with about $1000 in tags and points invested. Many people choose to go west instead.

I’d agree. We’ll never go back to what demand was in the 90s.

“Leveling off” is probably a better term for it than “bubble bursting.” But I do think we are leveling off based off what I’m seeing.

That said if the economy gets much worse (and I think it will) then a “burst” scenario may indeed happen. If it doesn’t, I think a gradual level off is more likely.

 

[SuperDUECE22]

“Leveling off” is probably a better term for it than “bubble bursting.” But I do think we are leveling off based off what I’m seeing.

Don't want to come off as a a$$hole but can you explain what exactly you are seeing that makes you think we are leveling off? I don't know all the data but isn't tag demand & applicants at all time high right now & continuing to trend upward ?

 

[Pramo]

I think once DIY starts pushing 2K for tags the demand starts to drop, most guys don't kill anything and really don't want to do what it takes for consistent success. How often do they really want to shell out the cash/time to fail and the guys that kill stuff will keep going out of state. I think the newly minted meateater and Rogan fan hunters will drop out pretty quick.

Some drivers that won’t change are more people living in the west as population increases so more local hunters buying up tags. Do-gooders want wolves, grizzly, shed hunting in winter ranges that also hurts game numbers and tags.

It will be interesting the next 5 years I think it will transform to a richer mans game with a smaller pool doing the hunting and less animals.

 

[cfdjay]

I hunted through 2008 and saw very little if any dropoff. A couple things are recession proof...pets and hunting. People are gonna find a way to do it for the most part.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

Don't want to come off as a a$$hole but can you explain what exactly you are seeing that makes you think we are leveling off? I don't know all the data but isn't tag demand & applicants at all time high right now & continuing to trend upward ?

Past trends don’t predict future results.

Certainty we’ve seen an exponential increase in demand of a limited resource over the past few years. At some point (maybe now, maybe 10 years from now) price of tags and odds will decrease to the point people say “f@ck it” and move on to other activities.

My evidence is purely anecdotal of people I know who have burned their points and gotten out or who simply don’t have it in the budget this year, or who went once and decided it seemed a lot cooler on IG.

 

[WiscoHoundsman]

I think it might be leveling trending towards leveling off or at least not so gaining so quick. Colorado had less 1st choice applicants in 2022 than 2021 but we will see what the next few years brings

2018 - 229995
2019 - 203095
2020 - 213210
2021 - 246589
2022 - 237942

The boomers had less kids and people have been having less children over the past 30 years. Maybe there will be a larger percentage of hunter in the population. But my gut feeling is that the trend will flatten

 

[stevevan]

I hunted through 2008 and saw very little if any dropoff. A couple things are recession proof...pets and hunting. People are gonna find a way to do it for the most part.

I guess I'm reaching the ole curmudgen stage but in my eyes the good old days are in the rear view mirror. No matter how you look at it hunting opportuniities are getting less and less. No longer possible to get access on private lands with a door knock and thank you. Outfitters have leased the general hunter out of much of the quality hunting areas. getting closer to European hunting and becoming a rich mans sport. Also, the cost has gotten such that I can't mentor my grand children as many of our grand fathers did. hard for me to afford paying for myself to hunt much less paying for 2 grand boys. Their dad, he's working overtime just to pay the normal living expenses for a family thanks to "sleepy joe" and his economy.

 

[cuerro viejo]

America has become lazy. Thats your answer

 

[CorbLand]

Not nearly the same work ethic or dedication in that gen z population, as a whole, from my experience anyways.

As soon as it's no longer the cool thing to do, Gen Z will follow the next wave of influenevers to whatever the next fad is. Yes, I called it a fad, specifically for the Gen Z crowd. Time will tell.

Do you actually believe that or is just something that has been said so many times it has become “true?”

I hunt way harder than my grandpa did, but I am just a lazy millennial. My wife’s cousins hunt way harder than I do and they are just that lazy, follow the fad gen z.

Don’t forget that a lot of the previous generation gave up hunting when they took the deer hunts out of the rut. Were lazy and not dedicated?

If we are simply going to say that hunting is just cool and it will fall off, I think we are at the bottom of that mountain looking up.

 

[Flyjunky]

You can't ignore demographics and the fact that the largest and wealthiest generation won't be participating in the next 10 years. X and Z will replace a number of them, but not sure if it will be all of them.

This is the key statement in this entire thread.

The number of hunters in the US has been decreasing as a total for decades, but we don't get that impression out West because of how many are coming out here to hunt. But, as hunters decrease throughout the country that will eventually translate to the West as well. Recruitment is a real thing and like someone said above, once the fashion of influencers is gone, the next generation will just move on to the next thing. Very few of the younger crowd are growing up with hunting being an instilled part of their lives.
Once these newcomers who view hunting through the lens of instagram, YouTube, etc, find out how hard hunting actually is, they'll be out of the game in a hurry.

What happens when the demand for NR tags does go down? What are the agencies going to do to generate that lost revenue? Increase tag prices = lower demand, and on it goes. Then they will start turning to resident fees and we all know the whining that will cause.

As far as cost goes, there will be a time in the not so distant future where the tag will hit a price that certainly will cause a drop in hunters. How many on here will apply in as many states as they do now if the price hits $5,000 - $10,000 for an elk tag? The price of trucks and sxs's was brought up as an example of people having enough money, well, those are purchases that are financed and is spread out over years, not made on a yearly basis....not a good example.

We might not be at the bubble bursting stage yet but it will be happening sooner rather than later.

 

[Flyjunky]

Do you actually believe that or is just something that has been said so many times it has become “true?”

I hunt way harder than my grandpa did, but I am just a lazy millennial. My wife’s cousins hunt way harder than I do and they are just that lazy, follow the fad gen z.

Don’t forget that a lot of the previous generation gave up hunting when they took the deer hunts out of the rut. Were lazy and not dedicated?

If we are simply going to say that hunting is just cool and it will fall off, I think we are at the bottom of that mountain looking up.

You are looking at the situation through a different perspective than most of the younger generations. You already had hunting in your life because of your grandpa (guessing). That's not as common anymore as it used to be and unless something changes it will continue to be the case.

Hunters and the people on this site have such a skewed outlook because we are already involved in the hunting culture, and we are a tiny percentage in the grand scheme of things. That percentage is getting smaller, not larger.

 

[william schmaltz]

Do you actually believe that or is just something that has been said so many times it has become “true?”

It's just human nature I guess. My grandpa's generation said all the kids they raised (boomers) were nothing but a bunch of lazy stoner hippie losers. The boomers say the generation they raised (participation trophy millenials that didn't ask for the trophies) are a bunch of entitled and lazy cry babies. Those groups certainly existed for both generations. People tend to see the worst (which is what media shows them) and then label the entire group that way. Just a tale as old as time I guess.

I have a brother that's much younger than me. He's a gen Z kid. I hope I never see him or any of his buddies at the trailhead or a job interview for that matter. I listened to an interview of a man in AK that has killed more sheep than M. ovi. He basically said he's glad he wasn't going against today's generation of younger hunters. In his day, they were killing cranker sheep from the road on weekend hunts. Now guys are hiking in 10-15 miles before they even get out their glass. He said most of the guys from his day with walls full of sheep wouldn't have left the trailhead if that's what it took.

I think people are a bit shortsighted when it comes to the younger generation. My wife is from the city. I'm more or less required to shoot a moose and bring home 100 salmon each year. She would never buy beef from the store or even from a family farm that's been pumping animals full of corn and soy. There is a massive swing in the way people are thinking about their food (especially their kid's food!) and they're more than willing to pay a premium for it. And that's something no one has really touched on yet in this thread.

 

[CorbLand]

You are looking at the situation through a different perspective than most of the younger generations. You already had hunting in your life because of your grandpa (guessing). That's not as common anymore as it used to be and unless something changes it will continue to be the case.

Hunters and the people on this site have such a skewed outlook because we are already involved in the hunting culture, and we are a tiny percentage in the grand scheme of things. That percentage is getting smaller, not larger.

My grandpa never took me hunting. He gave it up when “the tags became to hard to get.” My dad passed when I was young and it was a family friend that introduced me and my two brothers to it. Who are now introducing their kids to it.

This is why I don’t see it bursting or really leveling off. Yea, we may see some fluctuations but overall, when one person leaves there are more to take their place.

Even if that number is 1.1 gen z for every 1 baby boomer that falls off, the trend will continue to push with more demand. Supply is also being limited more and more.

 

[Flyjunky]

My grandpa never took me hunting. He gave it up when “the tags became to hard to get.” My dad passed when I was young and it was a family friend that introduced me and my two brothers to it. Who are now introducing their kids to it.

This is why I don’t see it bursting or really leveling off. Yea, we may see some fluctuations but overall, when one person leaves there are more to take their place.

Even if that number is 1.1 gen z for every 1 baby boomer that falls off, the trend will continue to push with more demand. Supply is also being limited more and more.

I get what you're saying, and I really hope that it happens. As much as it hurts to say it, we need to make sure there is high demand for the future of hunting.

You had people in your life that took you hunting or introduced you to it. The numbers don't lie, hunting participation levels are decreasing. If I remember right, even GoHunt had an article talking about it. I'm in the fishing industry and part of my job is researching trends and during that research I came across lots of articles discussing both fishing and hunting numbers.

Like I said, we are looking through a distorted lens because we are already involved in this sport and we also tend to know others who are as well. That skews our perception.

 

[sacklunch]

Do you actually believe that or is just something that has been said so many times it has become “true?”

I hunt way harder than my grandpa did, but I am just a lazy millennial. My wife’s cousins hunt way harder than I do and they are just that lazy, follow the fad gen z.

Don’t forget that a lot of the previous generation gave up hunting when they took the deer hunts out of the rut. Were lazy and not dedicated?

If we are simply going to say that hunting is just cool and it will fall off, I think we are at the bottom of that mountain looking up.

There are always exceptions to the rule, but take a broad look at today's society and I think you'll find your answer.

 

[SuperDUECE22]

The price of trucks and sxs's was brought up as an example of people having enough money, well, those are purchases that are financed and is spread out over years, not made on a yearly basis....not a good example.

Not everybody who owns a truck, boat or UTV finances it. I own 2 fullsize pickups, ATV, boat and have never financed anything except my house. How about the guys who put all their tags on credit cards and then spend the rest of the next year or so trying to pay them off ..... isn't that basically financing the tag ?