Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[HingleMcCringleberry]

No. The R3 gang are chicken little's

 

[TimberRunner]

Didn't read whole thread.

Economic downturn is the biggest factor in decreasing non-resident apps. I don't wish it on anyone or any country, but it's what drives it.

The loose money lately has led to a boom since covid.

 

[wyosam]

The max point pool do apply, but the guys that are 4-6 points off the unit they want are banking points and hunting 2nd choice units too.

That’s what needs to go. There’s only so much to go around. Hunt more often, or wait for the premium units. One or the other.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[displacedtexan]

Didn't read whole thread.

Economic downturn is the biggest factor in decreasing non-resident apps. I don't wish it on anyone or any country, but it's what drives it.

The loose money lately has led to a boom since covid.

I don't disagree...

But I've been hearing for years how bad the economy is.

 

[1jeds]

I like the data presented by a couple folks in here. All I know is that I'd rather have more demand and hunters, than less and we lose our rights or ability to hunt. Not that they are mutually exclusive, but it was great to see the stand against CO prop 127 (as an example).

 

[goathunter]

@goathunter the points are that:
1) National trend in both population and hunting participation is different from the trend in the western states in question
2) the resident trend in the west is making a big change, even at low participation rates it is causing significant growth in demand by residents
3) even though the NR trend is significantly less--flat or significantly down depending on the period you look at--there are still a massively larger number of those people, so I dont see the NR demand decreasing.

The takeawy is that the national trend does have implications in the west, even if the decreases arent seen there (they arent for the most part).

Here's a map showing population change 2000-2020 which helps to make these points--note the entire intermountain west is a growth area.
View attachment 827954


And, here's an article perhaps driving home the difference between the national participation trends in hunting, versus those in "the west": https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45667.html

If you scroll down about halfway you'll see table A2, which is the number of hunting licenses sold per state each year from 2015 thru 2019--these are the numbers used to allocate pittman robertson funding to the states. This is easy to copy paste into excel if anyone wants to push and pull the data around.

Looking at the "western states" as I defined them (Ca, Co, Or, Id, Mt, Ut, Az, Wa, Wy, Ak, Nm, Nv):

In 2015,

• All the western states combined accounted for only 15.6% of the hunting licenses sold in the US
• The top 10 states (TX, PA, MI, TN, WI, MN, NC, NY, AL and MO) are all in the east or midwest (sorry, TX), and account for almost 47% of the total licenses sold in the US.
• The bottom 10 states (NM, NJ, VT, NV, NH, MA, CT, DE, HI, RI) collectively only account for 3.4% of the total

Looking at the CHANGE during the period from 2015 thru 2019,

• the western states combined increased license sales by 12.8% (CA -1.5%, CO 6.3%, Or 27%, Id 14%, MT -1%, UT 17.7%, AZ 55%, WA -.8%, WY -1.1%, AK 16%, NM 9.8%, NV 6.4%). Unlike other areas this was a steady increase each year.
• The remainder of states combined grew by only 3.2%
• the top 10 states only grew by 0.1%
• the bottom 10 states were flat, although they did grow about 1% in the middle of the period

Thanks, good info. However Pittman Robertson data is as you say from 2015-2019. The westerns states imploded in 2020 and after- how are the number trends from 2020-2025?

 

[Macintosh]

No idea, usually the compilation of that data is only available every several years. I’m sure somebody could find the numbers for specific years and compile something. My guess is that the western states continued to explode in popularity, and the trend in the other states has continued, which really only continues all of the same trends. Because the western states make up a smaller total amount, it takes explosive % growth to add lots of numbers if you look at it from the big picture, even though it makes a huge difference locally. Example, in the period that was included in that report, the western states combined went from 15.6% of the total, to only 16.5%-ish of the total by 2019, even after they grew almost 13%— so 13% growth is really significant for a state or a region, but it only added up to less than 1% when looked at nationally. In other words, 13% growth in the west added about 300,000 hunters there, while 3% growth in the remainder of the country added over 400,000 hunters. So the west is growing quickly, it’s just starting from lower numbers, so it has a long way to go until it becomes even the majority. My understanding is the entire country had a big bump in 2020, with continued growth afterward that has been good, but that 2020 and 2021 were something of a bubble in most of the country. So perhaps the West grew to as much as 20% of the total licenses sold in the US? Regardless, what it shows is an increasing resident population in the west, and despite flattish or even declining numbers elsewhere, still vastly more non-residents who would like to hunt in the west than there is opportunity to support that.

 

[adieatrick]

NM sheep tag sold for 1.3 million...I doubt it. I think as tag quotas go down that the price goes up and pushes alot of people out vs. a popping bubble.

 

[OMB]

NM sheep tag sold for 1.3 million...I doubt it. I think as tag quotas go down that the price goes up and pushes alot of people out vs. a popping bubble.

NM governor's tag this year is very much an outlier. I ran some numbers out of curiosity earlier this week and for the most part, auction sheep tags are just moving with inflation. An outlier here and there with a particular tag where there's a known giant ram, sure. But inflation since 2007 has been 50%.

It's sort of tangential to this conversation: the prices of outfitted hunts that have gone the most crazy in price are the ones most likely sought by Boomers to check off their bucket list. Stone sheep and RMBH's to finish out a grand slam, guided trophy moose hunts, ranch elk hunts, etc. There's still a lot of affordable stuff out there that isn't on the average Boomer bucket list.

I know I've commented about this topic on other threads, but I do think there is something to demand slowing over the next 10 years with Baby Boomers dropping out. The peak year of births in that generation was 1957, which would obviously make that person 68 years old today. The youngest of that generation will turn 61 this year. We have hard data to show that generation makes up around a third of hunters in the United States. I don't think it's going to suddenly get easier to draw tags in 10 years, but the 2020/2021 Covid peak was probably the high water mark for demand.

 

[Jethro]

2 years ago it was asked if the western bubble was bursting. Wasn’t then and isn’t now. No sign of it easing up in WY,CO,NM,AZ,ID. Those are the states I’m familiar with. Nobody knows what it will be like in 10 years.


https://rokslide.com/forums/threads...bubble-bursting-or-at-least-shrinking.301470/

 

[Caseknife]

Don't think there is any chance that the demand for tags can or will decrease in the future.

The idea that the guys in their 60's will fade out in 4-6 years is ludicrous at best. My dad and uncle both hunted into their 90's and I plan on getting as close as I can, I'm 63, so last of the boomers.

Stats can be manipulated any way the end user wants them to portray. I find it hard to believe that there are twice the number of hunters over 60 than under 30. The majority of the population of the US is in the east. How many of those 'over 60' hunters only hunt whitetail deer in state, probably a very high majority, therefore they are not in competition for western tags.

Habitat continues to disappear at an alarming rate. Humans continue to build and expand on critical winter range and block historical migration routes so they can have their piece of property with a view of all the wonderful wildlife. Human population continues to increase, ungulate population is struggling in many places due to human encroachment, uncontrolled predator and disease.

So, in a nutshell, wouldn't hold your breath.