Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[BRTreedogs]

It may level off, but I think alot are leaving out all the people that have been buying points and not applying.
They are not really in the data.
These people may give up once they burn there points but I doubt they give up the years of points they have.
Didn't Papa Newberg say there is like 64 years of points in CO or something like that?

 

[southLA]

It may level off, but I think alot are leaving out all the people that have been buying points and not applying.
They are not really in the data.
These people may give up once they burn there points but I doubt they give up the years of points they have.
Didn't Papa Newberg say there is like 64 years of points in CO or something like that?

I'd be interested what % of point holders are out of the game. I know several low point holders who have applied in the past but have no desire to continue applying for whatever reason.

 

[OMB]

It may level off, but I think alot are leaving out all the people that have been buying points and not applying.
They are not really in the data.
These people may give up once they burn there points but I doubt they give up the years of points they have.
Didn't Papa Newberg say there is like 64 years of points in CO or something like that?

I always wonder when I see the point holder charts in preference point states if there isn't a non-zero percentage of people that buy a point every year because it's just what they do, as some could easily draw a premium tag. For example, I have a family member with max antelope points in Wyoming who has openly stated that he's not even really planning on doing that hunt, but buys the point every year in case he changes his mind.

 

[Bobbyboe]

Or, maybe they just don’t have interest in forums.

Maybe…. How would we know? I’d assume they seek any available source to gather information, aka forums.

 

[Still Hunter]

Maybe those guys are just smart and replacing their gear once every year or two, at a 5% cost.

Very true, we all need to take advantage of every opportunity that comes our away. I did not mean to imply all sales in classifieds were two to three year hunters dumping their gear.

 

[grainhog]

Here’s the post I was talking about. It’s a small sample size, but it appears gen z, for now, are not all that interested in western hunting.

What generation do western hunters fall into?

As the title says if you hunt out west resident or non resident what generation do you fall into? Trying to get a bead on rokslide age classes

rokslide.com

I hunted balls to the wall for 12 years before I found this website.

 

[grainhog]

I bumped into two pudgy 30 something guys in brand new absolutely EVERYTHING, First Lite, whatever boots the go hunter's last video was about, flagship bows, etc., near an archery spot I've spent at least 100 days scouting and hunting. No doubt one of their pieces of gear still had a tag on it. They were rode hard and put away wet, frankly they looked scared and confused, sort of shell shocked and traumatized if you will, and that's easy country with trails. They were headed back to their brand new Hertz rental Suburban with CA plates.

Could be wrong but don't expect to see them back. Not who i think of as my competition in any case.

 

[OXN939]

Most hunters are over 40. The overwhelming majority of young people are soft and hate discomfort of any kind. They also need to be entertained 24x7. I think hunter numbers are going to drop dramatically over the next 10 years. It's going to get better 100%. I'm starting to see it already in PA.

I wish I could buy this. The reality in my view is that the COVID era created a ton more hunters for multiple reasons. One, people saw just how thin the supply lines that keep grocery stores stocked are. Two, they saw how important health is, and how gross most commercial food (specifically meats) are. Three, buying said gross meat got very expensive. So, a ton of people who were either tangentially interested in hunting or had given it up have now bumped it to the top of their priority list.

Also do remember that every time Joe Rogan fires up the Traeger and hashtags #ieatelk on instagram, he reaches about three times as many people as Trump. And social media incentivizes wannabe influencers to compete for part of that attention, which results in three and four iterations of the same dead animal being paraded across dudes' profiles for attention. All with more hashtags glorifying all the easy and rewarding parts of western big game hunting without mentioning any of the bad or difficult parts of it...

 

[mnbuckfinder]

I think if we are not there, we are close to the top.

Everything has gone up in price. And now that money is actually worth saving (5% cd rates) more guys will elect to save money rather than spend it on recreation.

I agree with you. We are not there yet, but hopefully will be soon. Hope I'm wrong

 

[Szwampdonkey]

I wish I could buy this. The reality in my view is that the COVID era created a ton more hunters for multiple reasons. One, people saw just how thin the supply lines that keep grocery stores stocked are. Two, they saw how important health is, and how gross most commercial food (specifically meats) are. Three, buying said gross meat got very expensive. So, a ton of people who were either tangentially interested in hunting or had given it up have now bumped it to the top of their priority list.

Also do remember that every time Joe Rogan fires up the Traeger and hashtags #ieatelk on instagram, he reaches about three times as many people as Trump. And social media incentivizes wannabe influencers to compete for part of that attention, which results in three and four iterations of the same dead animal being paraded across dudes' profiles for attention. All with more hashtags glorifying all the easy and rewarding parts of western big game hunting without mentioning any of the bad or difficult parts of it...

Covid hunters are long gone already. Yeah, there were a TON of them two years ago but last year i had my spots all to myself again. Those guys are back at the shopping malls now that those are open again, good riddance too.

 

[OMB]

Covid hunters are long gone already. Yeah, there were a TON of them two years ago but last year i had my spots all to myself again. Those guys are back at the shopping malls now that those are open again, good riddance too.

Based how far out I have to book a steer at my local locker, more of them went that route than deciding to take up hunting to put protein in the freezer.

 

[Customweld]

Covid hunters are long gone already. Yeah, there were a TON of them two years ago but last year i had my spots all to myself again. Those guys are back at the shopping malls now that those are open again, good riddance too.

I think there are still quite a few Covid refugees still at it here in Idaho. All of the new mushroom hunter in the last couple of years has been horrendous.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

I think there are still quite a few Covid refugees still at it here in Idaho. All of the new mushroom hunter in the last couple of years has been horrendous.

I saw a post on another forum where the guy shot his first deer and asked, and im not joking, "is there always so much blood when you shoot a deer". To sum it up, he basically was horrified at the amount of blood he saw and was basically asking experienced hunters if that was just a freak thing with the deer he shot or would there always be blood when hunting. He seemed to get the impression most hunting was "clean" and he would not be subjected to blood. My guess, he was brought up on hunting that year by Youtube and their banning of kills shots, blood, etc.

Dont worry, your Covid refugees will be off chasing some other fad in Idaho soon enough id bet.

 

[wapitibob]

These are the number of people who did not apply in the Wyoming draw and therefor don't show in the demand reports, but who did buy a point later in the year.

total Elk for 2022 was 125,801 (97,295 in 2020)
total Deer was 113,196 (91,527 in 2020)
total Antelope was 111,732 (82,833 in 2020)

 

[Bobbyboe]

I hunted balls to the wall for 12 years before I found this website.

The site hasn’t exited for 12 years I don’t think…. Gen z is surly bright enough to do a google search for hunting info. Most results will be linked to the forums here.

Do a search for Arizona otc deer and it’ll direct you to the site.

 

[Lwarner03]

I wish you were right but I suspect not. My .02

 

[Miflatlander91]

I keep thinking any year now kind of how big whitetail were all anyone talked about in media for a while in the mid 2000s that lasted awhile but seems to have died off now

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

 

[Rich M]

These are the number of people who did not apply in the Wyoming draw and therefor don't show in the demand reports, but who did buy a point later in the year.

total Elk for 2022 was 125,801 (97,295 in 2020)
total Deer was 113,196 (91,527 in 2020)
total Antelope was 111,732 (82,833 in 2020)

Hi Bob - Pls correct me if wrong - we all have to buy the points later in the year cause they don't give em if we don't get selected.

So, these would be the guys who didn't draw and can likely be added to the number of successful tag purchasers to get the total demand???

 

[Cedarsavage]

My bubble burst. When It was affordable I was doing 2 hunts a year out west. My wife and I grew up without much and money was/is too hard to come by to just keep spending no matter what. Maybe at some point it changes for me, but with Joe's economic plan we're down about $1200 a month in dispensable income and it's just harder to justify dropping the $ on more expensive tags and gas when I can hunt here way cheaper. From what I've noticed living debt free we're six or so months ahead of most when it comes to cutting costs, and I think people are more comfortable with debt than ever before. My prediction; some people will keep doing it no matter what cuz they have the money, for everyone else demand tapers a bit over the next few years as guys 1. Realize it's harder when you're not hunting on the same ranch as Rogan and Cam 2. they get home and their wife loses it over the bill and not being able to buy groceries for little Timmy 3. it's not worth the fight with the crowding at the trailhead. But with our insta lifestyle it's gonna take awhile for that too happen.

Irony for me I would have never gone out west without Rinella, Newberg etc. "influencing" me, and now they have "influenced" me out of the game with increased demand. It's kind of a funny conundrum.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

I’ll add this bit of anecdotal information.

When I started this thing I didn’t have any kids. Wife and I both made six figure incomes so there was no problem buying gear, tags, gas, etc. If I wanted it, I could buy it, within reason.

I’ve got a 3 yo son now and my wife is dropping to part time in another month. Things were already tightening with inflation and they are about to get tighter by choice. I just dropped almost $1200 last night on my elk tag for Montana. I’ve got another $1050 on a credit card for WY and put another $130 on it for CO points. Once everything has shaken out I’ve budgeted about $1500 for tags/points total.

I’m thankfully in a position where I can pretty much work OT when I need it. If I A) didn’t already have the gear or B) didn’t have the ability to work OT there would be no way a western hunt would be in the budget this year given how inflation has been and our rising costs of living.

I’m just one guy, but given my age (mid 30s) I’m willing to bet a lot of the people who got into it in the last few years are in the same boat, and the barriers to entry for those who might be interested are rising.

ETA probably 80% of my disposable “me” money, not to mention a ton of valuable vacation time, is gonna get spent on one DIY elk hunt. Few guys are willing to make that sacrifice for something that usually involves a lot of suck for a few IG posts.