Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[CorbLand]

Nope. For every baby boomer that is ageing out, there are 5 gen z waiting to take their place.

 

[Bobbyboe]

What truck costs 100k??

 

[Bobbyboe]

Nope. For every baby boomer that is age if out, there are 5 gen z waiting to take their place.

It true per the poll a few weeks ago on hunting age.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

I’m already out of the game and will never buy another preference point. much better ways to spend my money.

 

[406life]

I thin we are the at base of the peak, on our way up still.

1. More people want to source their own protein, and are willing to pay a premium to do that. That means the more people will be hunting and the price won't matter.
2. Application numbers have not subsided since the "end" of the pandemic (whatever that really means). Point buyers still buy, appliers still apply.
3. Populations continue to be impacted by drought and habitat concerns. Less licenses issued means greater competition.

Personally, I think the "glory days" like getting a WY antelope tag every year are waning quickly.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

What truck costs 100k??

TRX and Raptor are in that range. 1 ton and duallies can also get in that range. One example below... Probably even higher in larger markets.

$108k RAM TRX

 

[Customweld]

You might see a reduction in NR numbers, but the new residents to the western states will more than make up for that reduction. I can't speak to the rest of the states, but I don't see Idaho returning to not selling out all NR tags. Residents will buy up what's left over.

 

[bow_dozer]

I've never seen so many road "hunters" as I did last year.
With the interweb hero's, Rogan, Meateater, Gohunt, my prediction are things will stay constant if not get more popular. Look at this website for pure example.
Which in my opinion needs to happen if we want public land hunting to be a thing in the future.

 

[SuperDUECE22]

There has to be a price. 3k a tag? 5k a tag?

You average nr Hunter doesn’t have a 100k truck and 30k utv. If anything, those prices make it more likely we have reached a peak.

Just my opinion but yes "there has to be a price" for certain individuals. But like i stated i think you'll price some guys out but i feel like there is plenty of guys standing in line who have no problem spending $3k for a tag. I think the demand will always be much greater than the supply.

What truck costs 100k??

 

[Glory]

Nope. For every baby boomer that is ageing out, there are 5 gen z waiting to take their place.

Yeah but does gen z have the money and time?

 

[Glory]

TRX and Raptor are in that range. 1 ton and duallies can also get in that range. One example below... Probably even higher in larger markets.

$108k RAM TRX

The exception, not the rule. People are running out of money

 

[Beendare]

Not a chance…and the facts on non res tags prove this out.
Az deer lic for 2023- gone
Id elk tags- gone
Wyo doubling prices for some tags
many state limited draw areas- preference points needed continue to rise

Then there is the staggering….$750,000 for a governors Deer tag

Sorry OP …the facts would indicate otherwise

 

[slimC]

I think we are currently at the lowest demand there is ever going to be across the west.... Just as someone else above has said, just because you and others are ready to call it quits doesn't mean there are not 5-10x the amount of next generations ready to hop in.

 

[william schmaltz]

Yeah but does gen z have the money and time?

They will. Boomers hold 53% of the country's wealth; and I don't know how to put it kindly, but Boomers are at the age they're starting to drop and that money will start to change hands. However, most of the boomer money will be going to millennials.

The market gauge I get from guys in the outfitting world is that we are not even close to the top. Alaska hunt prices almost across the board could still be doubled. The lines of people waiting for a spot are +10x the spots available for the top tier operators. I'd bet places like 40 mile air could triple their price and still sell out in an hour.

 

[SuperDUECE22]

Yeah but does gen z have the money and time?

plenty of both, many of these gen z can work from home and with the labor shortage going on this country the starting wages employers are offering is crazy.

 

[Fatcamp]

These are the good old days. Guarantee it.

 

[sacklunch]

Nope. For every baby boomer that is ageing out, there are 5 gen z waiting to take their place.

Not nearly the same work ethic or dedication in that gen z population, as a whole, from my experience anyways.

As soon as it's no longer the cool thing to do, Gen Z will follow the next wave of influenevers to whatever the next fad is. Yes, I called it a fad, specifically for the Gen Z crowd. Time will tell.

 

[Rich M]

Imo, not done bubbling yet. Been watching the deer and antelope numbers decline. Not interested in elk but they seem to be going up?

Yup these are the good old days.

 

[Rifleman86]

They will. Boomers hold 53% of the country's wealth; and I don't know how to put it kindly, but Boomers are at the age they're starting to drop and that money will start to change hands. However, most of the boomer money will be going to millennials.

The market gauge I get from guys in the outfitting world is that we are not even close to the top. Alaska hunt prices almost across the board could still be doubled. The lines of people waiting for a spot are +10x the spots available for the top tier operators. I'd bet places like 40 mile air could triple their price and still sell out in an hour.

I think the AK outfitter world is a whole different ball game than the general elk, B tag world.

I was sort of surprised to see the number of people in the WY thread that were saying they were getting out of the game. Whether or not they are serious is yet to be determined.

As with anything with economics, everything is local.

 

[Glory]

They will. Boomers hold 53% of the country's wealth; and I don't know how to put it kindly, but Boomers are at the age they're starting to drop and that money will start to change hands. However, most of the boomer money will be going to millennials.

The market gauge I get from guys in the outfitting world is that we are not even close to the top. Alaska hunt prices almost across the board could still be doubled. The lines of people waiting for a spot are +10x the spots available for the top tier operators. I'd bet places like 40 mile air could triple their price and still sell out in an hour.

Some select hunts that could be true. I am in the fishing biz in SE and I will say that the average age of our clients is old. We are losing probably 5% of our repeat clients each year due to age and health issues. That is about to quickly accelerate. In fact, operators are cutting doors in the sides of their boats because the guys who have been coming up for 20-30 years no longer can get in and out of the boat safely without a door they are so old.

You can't ignore demographics and the fact that the largest and wealthiest generation won't be participating in the next 10 years. X and Z will replace a number of them, but not sure if it will be all of them.