Fleeing Californians and Property Values

[Gobbler36]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

Exactly
Stupid *****

but I’m glad I bought when we did or we would be the average income family stuck pissing away rent because we got priced out by people that “want their taste of a small town”

 

[Gobbler36]

So the guys who live in CA and see it every day at the source are wrong but the guy who lives in ID knows what's up? Got it.

Haha dude google fastest growing places in US and see whos in the top, where the hell do you think those people are coming from. not listed is more rural California towns I can tell ya that

 

[4ester]

Property here in Wy is definitely selling. First hard winter and most of them will be headed south lol.


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[peterk123]

I am watching Livingston MT and south to Emigrant very closely. It is insane. I have my fingers crossed that all these folks moving to the area will realize a year later that winters suck, the wind sucks and work is hard to find. Driving through Bozeman is incredible. Neighborhoods appear to be going up overnight. Montana is beautiful. But I think it takes a special soul to handle that way of life. Keep praying for that cold weather to hit with a vengeance followed by 30 feet of snow. If you can handle it then you have earned your right to stay. I just can't imagine though that everybody moving from more temperate zones will adjust to the weather conditions.

Not that I should talk crap. I live in Massachusetts. We purchased a small townhouse in Livingston in August so we would have a place to live next August when we move. But we have been visiting the area for quite some time and know what we want as far as quality of life is concerned. We plan to fully embrace, and then some, the way of life out there. The life and politics that is here in Massachusetts stays in Massachusetts. I can't wait to be with like minded folks that share the same love and respect of the outdoors, and the principals this wonderful country was built on. Like my mom tells me, I was born a 100 years too late (and I'm 54).

Pete

 

[bobr1]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...36e858-0340-11eb-a2db-417cddf4816a_story.html

https://missoulian.com/news/local/e...cle_5c2a7f57-c433-5d3a-8e5f-03756ba72ad9.html

https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/housing-prices-around-montana-skyrocket-due-to-covid-19

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2020/10/09/crazy-hot-housing-market-continues-fall/


Just a few articles for Montana. We got unbelievably lucky as we had been renting a house for the last few years and even before covid the markets in montana were very competitive. We got ours during the lull right when covid shut downs happened and the market stalled for a few weeks and got it for 2.75%. It's only been six months but we would never have been able afford or get this house now. Our realtor told us they are having tons of out of state buyers buying in cash sight unseen. As much as I try to not bash on certain states or people. The big influx are not the type of people I want to be here, a lot d-bags and people trying to hide out from the pandemic and teleworkers who make big city pay and are pushing all the local workers out of the area because they cannot aford to live on retail or minimum wage pay anymore. People have the right to do whatever, but I moved to a small town to be part of the town and locals and contribute to it. A lot of the areas are going to turn into a slightly bigger Jackson. I had talked with the director for the department of recreation for montana and she gave a presentation showing that certain area in MT were about 10 years behind on growth and cost compared to places like Bend, Jackson and Boulder. Covid basically just pushed that to the 1 year mark. It is what it is and for people that are waiting for the market to correct its self....well I know people that are in there 70's that have lived in western Montana their entire lives and they all have told me, when there is a housing crash it basically just flat line in those area and then once the market picks up again they keep going up. When you are surrounded by national forest, national park etc there is only so much land that can be built on so it drives the market up. Also, a lot of the local conservation groups are buying easements and land to protect from building, good for conservation and keeping the area more rural but really bad for housing prices.

 

[hflier]

They move in and keep voting for the same policies they fled.


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[Rob5589]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

Well, you can thank your neighbors for that. They are the ones pricing people out of homes in the area. They set the price, not the buyer.

 

[Rob5589]

They move in and keep voting for the same policies they fled.


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That's because many flee for cheaper housing, lower taxes, smaller populations, etc. They aren't necessarily leaving due to the politics.

 

[peterk123]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...36e858-0340-11eb-a2db-417cddf4816a_story.html

https://missoulian.com/news/local/e...cle_5c2a7f57-c433-5d3a-8e5f-03756ba72ad9.html

https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/housing-prices-around-montana-skyrocket-due-to-covid-19

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2020/10/09/crazy-hot-housing-market-continues-fall/


Just a few articles for Montana. We got unbelievably lucky as we had been renting a house for the last few years and even before covid the markets in montana were very competitive. We got ours during the lull right when covid shut downs happened and the market stalled for a few weeks and got it for 2.75%. It's only been six months but we would never have been able afford or get this house now. Our realtor told us they are having tons of out of state buyers buying in cash sight unseen. As much as I try to not bash on certain states or people. The big influx are not the type of people I want to be here, a lot d-bags and people trying to hide out from the pandemic and teleworkers who make big city pay and are pushing all the local workers out of the area because they cannot aford to live on retail or minimum way pay anymore. People have the right to do whatever, but I moved to a small town to be part of the town and locals and contribute to it. A lot of the areas are going to turn into a slightly bigger Jackson. I had talked with the director for the department of recreation for montana and she gave a presentation showing that certain area in MT were about 10 years behind on growth and cost compared to places like Bend, Jackson and Boulder. Covid basically just pushed that to the 1 year mark. It is what it is and for people that are waiting for the market to correct its self....well I know people that are in there 70's that have lived in western Montana their entire lives and they all have told me, when there is a housing crash it basically just flat line in those area and then once the market picks up again they keep going up. When you are surrounded by national forest, national park etc there is only so much land that can be built on so it drives the market up. Also, a lot of the local conservation groups are buying easements and land to protect from building, good for conservation and keeping the area more rural but really bad for housing prices.

There is one thing that nobody is factoring in. We have shut down the world for a year, and we are not done. My career started in commercial banking. Then I went into business for myself in commercial real estate. I have lived through three massive real estate crashes. I always thought that if I could survive 2008, I can survive anything. I never in my wild dreams factored in a government mandate closure. The equity market has not reacted to it, nor has the real estate market. Everybody thinks the government will just turn a switch back on and we are good to go. Not even close. The media is not reporting the massive amount of businesses that are shutting down everywhere. We can only print money for so long. By next June it will be ugly. Cash will be king unless we do a 3 trillion stimulus package. Which probably will happen. At that point we start bartering.

I hope I am wrong. But I'm not. It's math.

 

[nobody]

Seeing the same in Utah as well. My wife and I purchased our first home in May and paid way more than we should have for a 113 year old historical home, but we are in the market now and hopefully shouldn't ever lose value. What bothers me more than them moving here is the fact that they bring their ideologies and their politics with them. Destroy a state, create a welfare system, tax the **** out of yourselves by voting in the Democrats, then jump ship when it goes south. Then, move to a neighboring state and bring the destruction with you. Makes sense, right?

I keep joking with my family that I'm going to run for county council in our hometown and place caps and restrictions with how close you can be tied to California or other deep blue areas of the country and still be allowed to move to Wasatch county, but I'm kindof afraid it's too late! I'd probably already be too polarizing of a political figure to run anyways, but still.

Anyone wanna buy a 113 year old stone house in Wasatch County???

 

[peterk123]

Seeing the same in Utah as well. My wife and I purchased our first home in May and paid way more than we should have for a 113 year old historical home, but we are in the market now and hopefully shouldn't ever lose value. What bothers me more than them moving here is the fact that they bring their ideologies and their politics with them. Destroy a state, create a welfare system, tax the **** out of yourselves by voting in the Democrats, then jump ship when it goes south. Then, move to a neighboring state and bring the destruction with you. Makes sense, right?

I keep joking with my family that I'm going to run for county council in our hometown and place caps and restrictions with how close you can be tied to California or other deep blue areas of the country and still be allowed to move to Wasatch county, but I'm kindof afraid it's too late! I'd probably already be too polarizing of a political figure to run anyways, but still.

Anyone wanna buy a 113 year old stone house in Wasatch County???

I would vote for you

 

[Sleghammer]

I should be a home builder here in ID, migrants buying new construction sight unseen. I see it everyday across my street. I had to compete with 3 others on my current home last year, at least one was from CA. I was the only one who actually looked at the house in person.

The increase in property values is hurting our next generation of the workforce. The wage rates in MT, WY, and ID can't keep up. Those looking to buy their first home to raise a young family in these states simply will have to start looking elsewhere.

 

[def90]

There is one thing that nobody is factoring in. We have shut down the world for a year, and we are not done. My career started in commercial banking. Then I went into business for myself in commercial real estate. I have lived through three massive real estate crashes. I always thought that if I could survive 2008, I can survive anything. I never in my wild dreams factored in a government mandate closure. The equity market has not reacted to it, nor has the real estate market. Everybody thinks the government will just turn a switch back on and we are good to go. Not even close. The media is not reporting the massive amount of businesses that are shutting down everywhere. We can only print money for so long. By next June it will to be ugly. Cash will be king unless we do a 3 trillion stimulus package. Which probably will happen. At that point we start bartering.

I hope I am wrong. But I'm not. It's math.

Yeah, looking on Zillow at homes in the Boise area shows a huge number of homes in pre-foreclosure. My hesitancy of buying and moving there though I can get a home at a fraction of the price that I would have to spend here in Boulder/Denver is that the Boise area doesn't have the population mass or business diversity to absorb the fallout that may occur in the next 6-12 months if people there aren't able to stay in their homes.

 

[MattB]

Haha dude google fastest growing places in US and see whos in the top, where the hell do you think those people are coming from. not listed is more rural California towns I can tell ya that

Frisco, TX is at or near the top of the lists I see (and TX has 5 of 10). In terms of ID, Meridian is fastest growing by rate (6th on the list) but that is somewhat misleading in terms of nominal growth because its population is so small (106K in 2018).

There are cities in CA like Irvine which has ~3x the population (significantly larger than Boise) and are growing at a rate not that much less than Meridian. With the larger population and rapid albeit not as rapid growth, the nominal growth is much greater than what Meridian is experiencing. It is all relative I suppose.

 

[IdahoElk]

In my neck of the woods I doubt anyone moving here will be able to find jobs to pay the ridiculous mortgages they're signing up for, my opinion is this whole circus is going to crash HARD!

 

[jfs82]

I should be a home builder here in ID, immigrants buying new construction sight unseen. I see it everyday across my street. I had to compete with 3 others on my current home last year, at least one was from CA. I was the only one who actually looked at the house in person.

The increase in property values is hurting our next generation of the workforce. The wage rates in MT, WY, and ID can't keep up. Those looking to buy their first home to raise a young family in these states simply will have to start looking elsewhere.

This is true, and exactly why many are fleeing areas like CA, because they cannot afford to own here, housing cost is just too high. My girl and I make a combined approx 170k a year and couldn't come close to owning where we live. Better believe I'll be taking my SF Bay Area pay rate PERS and taking it somewhere that percentage goes a lot further, without all the traffic.

This is how capitalism works, somethings worth what people will pay, housing, goods, labor etc. it's not a pleasant thing but it's how our system works economically. The log cabin from the 20's I grew up in in the hills of the bay area south of SF was tiny with only a wood burning stove, no neighbors, bought for cheap by my dad at age 17. The house standing on that lot now recently sold for 2.4 mil, the entire surroudning area is the same. Plenty of those buyers came in from outside of the area to work in tech and priced out the locals. It's a cycle everywhere.

 

[wyosam]

As a Californian, I don't see the number of people moving out of CA slowing down any time soon.

And enough people have moved already that now people considering moving already have friends that live in ID or wherever. If you can make money off people moving into your state, you may as well do it!

For the person selling their house for an inflated price it’s great. For the regular person trying to stay in the workforce in that area, not so great. When a rural community has home prices that don’t allow nurses, tradesmen, teachers and cops to own homes, it is really bad for that community.


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[jfs82]

For the person selling their house for an inflated price it’s great. For the regular person trying to stay in the workforce in that area, not so great. When a rural community has home prices that don’t allow nurses, tradesmen, teachers and cops to own homes, it is really bad for that community.


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Very true. I work in education, half the teachers I work with commute at least an hour just to afford an apartment let alone a home.

 

[missjordan]

Yeah! Our house in Missoula, MT in 2016 appraised out at $228k

The appraisal i had done to refi valued it at $405k
We did do some improvements like new kitchen with granite but that’s still nuts! We are on a half acre in the best school district in town with a shop. A fairly rare find these days

I’ve been having realtors cold call me wondering if we’d sell. We were going to and upgrade but we can’t replace what we got in our new price bracket. And the thought of making offers over asking price scares me


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[def90]

In my neck of the woods I doubt anyone moving here will be able to find jobs to pay the ridiculous mortgages they're signing up for, my opinion is this whole circus is going to crash HARD!

Few of the people moving to Boise are getting jobs and working in Boise, they are either independant business owners/consultants doing businessoutside of where they live, telecommuting or early retirees. This is where it gets scary for places like Boise in the future, people that run real estate up while the local job base remains flat.