dreamingbig
WKR
Im having a hard time following the logic of reduced odds with more points a year later? More than willing to admit I dont know what I dont know, but Math and Stats are a significant part of my education and career and I cant seem to come to the same conclusion about reduced odds. Can you explain?
On a side note, even though I have max points in some states and very few in others.....overall I personally like the bonus point systems of some states over the random of others. In my mind yes that means you wait many years to draw if ever.......but I consistently hear people argue in their daily lives that their seniority at work or their years of doing "X" mean something which should give them privilege over someone else with less seniority or less years doing "X". If that is a sound argument to daily lives, shouldn't that logic and reasoning be applied everywhere?
Its a hard pill to swallow, for me personally, that say a 17 year old draws a Ram tag in a completely random drawing when his dad and grandfather not to mention thousands of other people spent their whole lives trying and never got one.......to me, this lone example is enough for me to support a bonus point system over a completely random system.
Have you ever seen a graph of exponential growth? Math doesn’t lie. Your individual odds go down because the denominator (the total applications) is growing at a faster pace than the numerator (your applications). Squaring bonus points is fools gold.
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