We'll never know for sure because Oklahoma doesn't publish detailed draw statistics, but I would guess that allocating 50% of tags to applicants with 20+ points dramatically increases the high pointholders' odds. Below is a distribution plot of applicant point totals for the 2023 elk draws in Colorado and Utah (two states I happen to be somewhat familiar with and also have readily available detailed statistics).
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I would assume point distribution looks similar in Oklahoma (i.e., lots of folks with lower points and progressively fewer folks with higher points). Just for grins, I calculated hypothetical odds by point tier for Oklahoma's 2023 elk draw assuming point distribution is identical to Utah's using a simple, single round draw and a 2-round draw with 50% of tags awarded to the 20+ point tiers during round 1. This model indicates that the 2-round draw results in a 350% increase in draw odds for the 20+ point tiers and a 50% decrease for the sub-20 point tiers.
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