Bitcoin

[Dos Perros]

I think most others are struggling to get by in a monetary system that is rigged against them and forces them to either invest their much-less-than-mountain-sized amount of cash in assets they don't have the time or skills to properly evaluate or to watch their cash inexorably erode in value. Bitcoin could fix that conundrum.


I primarily buy and hold Bitcoin because I'm a true believer in its potential as a return to sound money and greater economic freedom. I have also (to a lesser degree) opportunistically bought and sold it to realize a profit. Incidentally, it has performed far better than anything else for me (stocks, gold, silver, real estate) since my first purchase in 2018.

The S&P 500 can be cheaply and easily bought and almost certainly outpaces inflation. I don’t know anyone with large cash holdings. At any given time less than 1% of our net worth is held in cash, and that’s mostly a revolving door of bonus/savings that get plunked down on something else, like a vacation or a new deck. Most of the time it’s less than 0.5%. And we are well off. If you believe the newspapers most people can’t afford a $1000 oopsie kind of event. To that end I don’t think people are sitting on large amounts of cash doing nothing. And if there were it’s not because there isn’t an alternative asset class that is easy to invest in and maintain.

How do you evaluate the risk of BTC going to zero in the next 10 years? What are the top 3 sources of risk, in your opinion?

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Are you confident you are referring to the laws of thermodynamics and not Maxwell’s Equations?

Confident im referring to the first law in relation to electrons not being free in the process of electrical generation which is needed to both create a bitcoin private key and to secure the network through computing hashes.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

The S&P 500 can be cheaply and easily bought and almost certainly outpaces inflation. I don’t know anyone with large cash holdings. At any given time less than 1% of our net worth is held in cash, and that’s mostly a revolving door of bonus/savings that get plunked down on something else, like a vacation or a new deck. Most of the time it’s less than 0.5%. And we are well off. If you believe the newspapers most people can’t afford a $1000 oopsie kind of event. To that end I don’t think people are sitting on large amounts of cash doing nothing. And if there were it’s not because there isn’t an alternative asset class that is easy to invest in and maintain.

How do you evaluate the risk of BTC going to zero in the next 10 years? What are the top 3 sources of risk, in your opinion?

You just put 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin and walk away for 10 years. If it works it'll be 99% of your portfolio in ten years without rebalancing. The risk reward is such...

Or you continue to go out further and further on the risk curve and invest in tech that has PE ratios in the 30's/40's/50's etc and hope it doesn't all blow up again...

You buy some Govt't paper and hope they don't blow up rates again...

You buy some corp paper and hope they are better capital allocations than the govt...

 

[BRTreedogs]

Every one keeps acting like its such a sure thing but then also says IF it works.

 

[BRTreedogs]

I can tell you I've made wayyyy more on my house is 7 years. And it is a real tangible thing that I live in.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Every one keeps acting like its such a sure thing but then also says IF it works.

Nothing is a sure thing but when it comes to investing you make decisions on data and manage your risk just as I stated. All the data supports a non zero position in Bitcoin.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

I can tell you I've made wayyyy more on my house is 7 years. And it is a real tangible thing that I live in.

you have made nothing on your house. You've only been debased at a slower rate.

 

[BRTreedogs]

you have made nothing on your house. You've only been debased at a slower rate.

I can sell it the same way you can sell bit coin

 

[MountainTracker]

I can tell you I've made wayyyy more on my house is 7 years. And it is a real tangible thing that I live in.

Everyone needs a castle to live in, I’d never argue against that. I’d also argue that the house is never really yours, even when paid off you still have taxes on the value, which will increase and the fiat used to pay taxes is debasing, so you are required to work more or take more risk to off set the loose.

As a fun experiment take the money you put into a home 7 years ago, divide it by the price of btc at the time and then multiply by today’s price. I’m guessing you’d have many more homes.

I know it’s easy to look back and say what if, but some of the arguments have used historical returns as basis for positions. I’d just hate for people to look back in another 7 years and say, “what if?”

Just for reference

Also, I’m enjoying this thread very much, a lot of good information in here provided from everyone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

I can sell it the same way you can sell bit coin

Absolutely

 

[Mighty Mouse]

I can tell you I've made wayyyy more on my house is 7 years. And it is a real tangible thing that I live in.

Bitcoin's USD value has risen 6000% over the past 7 years...I'm guessing you didn't beat that rate of gain with your house. Viewed another way: if you had bought $8k worth of Bitcoin 7 years ago, you could buy a $500k house outright today.

 

[Historybuff]

Do people that buy bitcoin think others are sitting on a mountain of depreciating cash?

Or is the argument that it’s a superior investment to securities, gold, real estate, etc?

Yes to both

 

[Historybuff]

In the last month bitcoin is up 26%. Since January 1st it's up 53%. In the last 365 days it's up 136%. Maybe I'm biased to bitcoin because of the massive gains and huge value I've got over the last 3 years. And to the making money on your home guys. My house is paid off and doubled in value since i bought it. But guess what. If I don't pay the government 4k a year in house taxes they will pull me out of my house and put me in a cage. And if I don't agree to get in the cage peacefully, they will kill me. Then they sell my house to the next slave. Like I said before, bitcoin is hope and freedom. Come and take it.

 

[BRTreedogs]

In the last month bitcoin is up 26%. Since January 1st it's up 53%. In the last 365 days it's up 136%. Maybe I'm biased to bitcoin because of the massive gains and huge value I've got over the last 3 years. And to the making money on your home guys. My house is paid off and doubled in value since i bought it. But guess what. If I don't pay the government 4k a year in house taxes they will pull me out of my house and put me in a cage. And if I don't agree to get in the cage peacefully, they will kill me. Then they sell my house to the next slave. Like I said before, bitcoin is hope and freedom. Come and take it.

Paid off house is like the top 1% of the top 1% percent man.
You can't compare that to the average person.
The average person will die with there mortgage.

And if they think bitcoin is going to take there power away they gonna take your life anyway.

 

[BRTreedogs]

My mortgage is at 2.6 so I literally could of made more money on anything.
But paying it of is like the girls I date.
A sure thing.

 

[Historybuff]

Paid off house is like the top 1% of the top 1% percent man.
You can't compare that to the average person.
The average person will die with there mortgage.

And if they think bitcoin is going to take there power away they gonna take your life anyway.

I appreciate the comment treedog. I guess your right. Maybe I should humble myself. I've been very fortunate to have had extra cash to dump in bitcoin. I just toot the bitcoin horn on here because there is no other people I'd like to see benefit from it over the next ten years than hunters

 

[BRTreedogs]

I appreciate the comment treedog. I guess your right. Maybe I should humble myself. I've been very fortunate to have had extra cash to dump in bitcoin. I just toot the bitcoin horn on here because there is no other people I'd like to see benefit from it over the next ten years than hunters

Honestly.
I think ill be the only person in my entire age group to have a paid off house.
My mother is the only other person I know.

And that is only if I can stay strong in not upgrading. Like the cycle of debt most Americans live in.

No doubt bitcoin was, is, and probably will be a good investment.

But I trying to stay away from the more more more more.

I'm trying to do with less. And be content.
I want time, I want time to enjoy myself.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Tulips, anyone?

Nothing about this chart rhymes with the Tulip bubble. This is an asset rising from zero value to a 1.25T asset on a global adoption cycle.

 

[*zap*]

 

[PNW bow hunter]

Nothing about this chart rhymes with the Tulip bubble. This is an asset rising from zero value to a 1.25T asset on a global adoption cycle.

That chart you posted sure appears to smooth out the bumps in the road.

Here is a chart set up a little differently. A little more honest depiction of price history in my opinion.