Bitcoin

[*zap*]

Interesting story about people's greed getting in the way of seeing clearly.

Auction site(not ebay) has a listing for 10 silver ingots/bars. The bid is up to $190 on 33 bids with 2 days left.
The pictures clearly show the bars are marked 1 gram and the listing says winner will receive 10 one gram bars. Ten grams is basically worth $8. People's greed makes them see 10 one ounce bars.

 

[*zap*]

Nothing about this chart rhymes with the Tulip bubble. This is an asset rising from zero value to a 1.25T asset on a global adoption cycle.

There is a chart of the tulip bubble in the 1630's? It lasted 3 years and one tulip bulb cost 10x the salary of a skilled worker at the time, then it just collapsed. Never seen a chart of it thou....and it was limited to one country, basically..but it was before the internet.

 

[Customweld]

Just out of curiosity, who here would turn down the chance to go back and put a grand down on BC in 2010?

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

That chart you posted sure appears to smooth out the bumps in the road.

Here is a chart set up a little differently. A little more honest depiction of price history in my opinion.
View attachment 691247

You can't be serious?

The Linear chart you posted smoothes the bumps and the Logarithmic chart I posted shows all of them.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

There is a chart of the tulip bubble in the 1630's? It lasted 3 years and one tulip bulb cost 10x the salary of a skilled worker at the time, then it just collapsed. Never seen a chart of it thou....and it was limited to one country, basically..but it was before the internet.

Yeah I've seen it before. My point is it was basically one big bubble then it collapsed to never happen again.

Bitcoin is on the 4th "Bubble" in a 15 year period as per the no coiners.

When an asset with a supply cap goes from zero to 1.25 Trillion over a 15 year period I wouldn't expect it to be stable in its rise to adoption. Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 and has no circuit breakers to limit trading.

NYSE trades about 1650 hrs a year with circuit breakers. That's 21,500 hours of trading over 13 years.

Bitcoin in 13 years since having an exchange rate has traded for 114,000 hours with no circuit breakers and worldwide exchanges.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

You can't be serious?

The Linear chart you posted smoothes the bumps and the Logarithmic chart I posted shows all of them.

People see things differently.

Your’s make me think “buy now, I can’t loose”

The one I posted makes me think” buy the next 30-50 percent dip, I missed my chance”

I shouldn’t have said “more honest” when comparing the two. I didn’t mean that as an insult to you. I apologize

Just posting a different view of the price history

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

There is a chart of the tulip bubble in the 1630's? It lasted 3 years and one tulip bulb cost 10x the salary of a skilled worker at the time, then it just collapsed. Never seen a chart of it thou....and it was limited to one country, basically..but it was before the internet.

Another point is that in the last 15 years of these "Bubbles" 93% of Bitcoin's supply has been issued all the while world adoption is 1-2%

Better buckle up if 80% of the world decides to allocated to it and fight over the last 7%

Going to be a lot more "Bubbles" ahead

 

[PNW bow hunter]

When I first started watching different crypto, I always thought the big money could be made basically day trading it. It has such big swings up and down, but you couldn’t get in and out fast enough.

I was thinking that was the reason these ETF’s were created, so the big Wall Street firms with the trading algorithms can take advantage of the big ups and downs.

Any thoughts on that?

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

People see things differently.

Your’s make me think “buy now, I can’t loose”

The one I posted makes me think” buy the next 30-50 percent dip, I missed my chance”

I shouldn’t have said “more honest” when comparing the two. I didn’t mean that as an insult to you. I apologize

Just posting a different view of the price history

All good Michael. The Log charts show a better representation of price over long periods of time. My intent was to show the cyclical nature of an asset rising and falling over a 15 year period of time not the big spike that most people see and call it a bubble when they type it into he Google search bar.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

When I first started watching different crypto, I always thought the big money could be made basically day trading it. It has such big swings up and down, but you couldn’t get in and out fast enough.

I was thinking that was the reason these ETF’s were created, so the big Wall Street firms with the trading algorithms can take advantage of the big ups and downs.

Any thoughts on that?

Time will tell... No indication of that yet.

Important to note that the ETF's are a product these big institutions offer to market participants.

When you see big BlackRock inflows that means customers of BalckRock are allocating to the ETF not the other way around.

 

[*zap*]

Just out of curiosity, who here would turn down the chance to go back and put a grand down on BC in 2010?

No way.........at least 10K.

 

[Customweld]

No way.........at least 10K.

Pretty crazy to think about.

 

[MountainTracker]

Can’t remember if I posted this but got robbed over night. USG funded with $1.2 trillion bill Thursday night.

This isn’t just happening in the US it’s happening all over the world, we’re just lucky to be slightly closer to the faucet.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[2531usmc]

Just out of curiosity, who here would turn down the chance to go back and put a grand down on BC in 2010?

But you can say that for Amazon, Google, any of the AI firms, etc, etc,

At one time people were saying the same thing about Cisco and it’s routers….

 

[IBen]

But you can say that for Amazon, Google, any of the AI firms, etc, etc,

At one time people were saying the same thing about Cisco and it’s routers….

He asked about btc not those other stocks. The question exposes an irrational and emotional response to Bitcoin if you say no…
Even Peter schiff says yes of course

 

[Dos Perros]

Not a single person can answer me about the risks of bitcoin. Either you have made an evaluation and dismissed it or purposely put your head in the sand.

 

[Dos Perros]

You just put 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin and walk away for 10 years. If it works it'll be 99% of your portfolio in ten years without rebalancing. The risk reward is such...

Or you continue to go out further and further on the risk curve and invest in tech that has PE ratios in the 30's/40's/50's etc and hope it doesn't all blow up again...

You buy some Govt't paper and hope they don't blow up rates again...

You buy some corp paper and hope they are better capital allocations than the govt...

I’ll never be able to spend what I have already saved.

 

[Stave]

For those saying Bitcoin can't be money because it's not "real"/isn't a tangible commodity...how "real" are the dollars that your employer pays you and that you use to buy stuff?

Dollars aren't money either. They are a fiat currency.

I hold just enough currency for monthly expenses and an emergency fund. All my other dollars go to buy assets because I think dollars have no value. Doesn't everyone do that? Hold as many assets and as little currency as possible?

Bitcoin has a structure. A coding/mathematical structure called a block chain Its structure doesn't change.

Sure, the bitcoin network has a structure, but the bitcoins don't, they're imaginary.
Just like the dollar network has a structure, but not dollars themselves.
PHYS, OneGold, MonetaryMetals, GoldMoney etc. have network infrastructure AND the gold they hold has atomic structure. That is a big difference. Commodity accounts hold assets. Bitcoin wallets and USD bank accounts do not hold assets.

Sound money is the most basic building block of a productive, civilized society. I'm not against gold, but we've tried it as money and it lost out to fiat; I don't see a legitimate path to returning to gold as the dominant form of money

I recommend reading articles by Keith Weiner, founder of Monetary Metals. He has a five article series about gold standards, why they failed, and how to move forward.

 

[MountainTracker]

How do you evaluate the risk of BTC going to zero in the next 10 years? What are the top 3 sources of risk, in your opinion?

Was this the question you had about risk.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stave]

Price and value in free/open markets get determined by all market participants.

I think that clarifies our different views. I think that value is objective. It is not determined by markets. Prices are the market's approximation of something's value.

Value is the sum of something's qualities. It doesn't have a number.

Bitcoin is apolitical so whatever you meant by all that politics BS is a waste of energy.

I simply mean that many people choose to buy bitcoins because of their ideals. People's idealism seems to be a significant force in the bitcoin market. It causes price momentum as people rally to the cause. The danger is that no asset is tethering their ideals to objective value. Bitcoin will live or die on people's opinions about it. If it dies, HODLers will have no value to hold.

Seems to me you are getting wrapped around the axle about wether its money or currency

Yes, I think the distinction between money and currency is crucial

Lots of talk about stability... Your being stably debased right now. Happy with that stability?

The amount of currency I hold relative to my assets is as small as possible . . . and yes I'm livid that my currency is being debased into nothing.

I realize that the dollar is steadily declining, but on a monthly basis, paycheck to paycheck, bill to bill, it is stable enough to function as currency. That is all I mean when I say the dollar is relatively stable