I like data.
Regarding higher recoil affecting overall hit rates--this link to a paper from the US army research lab
(linky) squarely looks at the effect of recoil on shooter performance, including accuracy. Accuracy conclusions are on page 978 and 979 of the PDF (dont worry, its not a 1000 page doc, just an excerpt from some collection of papers). Their findings:
hit rates and "critical hit" rates with various cartridges to show effect of recoil--this is at short range so this isolates shooter performance, ie the difference is not contingent on ballistic differences:
5.56: 81% overall hit rate/59% critical hit rate
6.8spc: 76% hit rate/41% critical hit rate
7.62 nato: 76% hit rate/36% critical hit rate
So this^ shows a clear degradation in hit rate as recoil increases, with a 39% reduction in rate of critical hits, and a 5% reduction in overall hits, between 556 and 762 cartridges.
Also, they looked both at single shots versus paired shots (so including a follow-up shot) accuracy “mean radial error”--this shows a degradation of accuracy as recoil increases, while it shows a very significant degradation of accuracy on paired shots, almost a 30% increase in second-round mean radial error for the higher-recoiling cartridge:
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