What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[MattB]

there has been 417 so far in the whole country, the seasonal flu kills an average of 35k per year here.... average of 103 every day in car accidents, etc.

To put some context around that number, on 3/9/20, 4 people died in the US from COVID-19. A week later on 3/16/20, 18 people died from COVID-19 (4x+ increase) That number more than tripled by 3/19/20 - just 3 days later - to 57.

Given the steepness of the infection curve, that number could be in excess of 200 dead/day by the end of the week. You can draw that trend line out as far as you want - and layer in the impact of our medical system becoming overburdened - to extrapolate where this could be headed if we cannot slow the rate of infection.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[trazerr]

I chatted with two different nurses in the past few days (wife's good friends). One is a nurse in Portland and the other a nurse in Seattle... We skyped the one in Seattle on Friday. Anyways at that time she said they had 12 serious cases. 10 were elderly patients, one was a fifty some year old, and the other a 25yr old. She wanted to be clear that the 25yr old wasnt in the best of shape to begin with. He was obese and had multiple underlying medical conditions. Just wanted to be clear about that.

Wife's other nurse friend stopped by today to grab all of the N95 masks I had (not many unfortunately). Came down just for 3 masks. I was able to find 2 more right as she got here, but still wasn't a ton. Anyways, she said they were setting up critical emergency tents and what not in case this gets bad. We asked if she had to work all week due to this and she said she actually wasn't scheduled again until this Thursday. Kind of odd? Then again Oregon doesnt have a ton of cv19 patients, but we are stuck between almost the two worst states. I really wanted to ask her more questions, but I am sure she is getting tired of that from friends and family.

Both did say people need to just stay home (if possible) and stop getting together in larger groups. And practice good hygiene!

You can take the above for what its worth, but I Just wanted to share my convos with people that are actually on the frontline.

 

[MuleyFever]

To put some context around that number, on 3/9/20, 4 people died in the US from COVID-19. A week later on 3/16/20, 18 people died from COVID-19 (4x+ increase) That number more than tripled by 3/19/20 - just 3 days later - to 57.

Given the steepness of the infection curve, that number could be in excess of 200 dead/day by the end of the week. You can draw that trend line out as far as you want - and layer in the impact of our medical system becomes overburdened - to extrapolate where this could be headed if we cannot slow the rate of infection.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

We Don't Understand Exponentials - kazabyte

 

[roosiebull]

I chatted with two different nurses in the past few days (wife's good friends). One is a nurse in Portland and the other a nurse in Seattle... We skyped the one in Seattle on Friday. Anyways at that time she said they had 12 serious cases. 10 were elderly patients, one was a fifty some year old, and the other a 25yr old. She wanted to be clear that the 25yr old wasnt in the best of shape to begin with. He was obese and had multiple underlying medical conditions. Just wanted to be clear about that.

Wife's other nurse friend stopped by today to grab all of the N95 masks I had (not many unfortunately). Came down just for 3 masks. I was able to find 2 more right as she got here, but still wasn't a ton. Anyways, she said they were setting up critical emergency tents and what not in case this gets bad. We asked if she had to work all week due to this and she said she actually wasn't scheduled again until this Thursday. Kind of odd? Then again Oregon doesnt have a ton of cv19 patients, but we are stuck between almost the two worst states. I really wanted to ask her more questions, but I am sure she is getting tired of that from friends and family.

Both did say people need to just stay home (if possible) and stop getting together in larger groups. And practice good hygiene!

You can take the above for what its worth, but I Just wanted to share my convos with people that are actually on the frontline.

yeah, it's a touchy situation right now..... seems like there are still a good amount of people not caring, which is unfortunate. hotels are still open here on the coast, which seems odd to me. some common sense would really go a long ways right now, especially with a high percentage of people showing little to no symptoms.... couple that with a selfish attitude and one person could get a lot of others sick.

like you said, avoid crowds, be aware and practice good hygiene. there are signs in town, and spray paint on the highway saying "go home"

bad timing with spring break, but hopefully the crappy weather coming up will get people doing what they are supposed to. sounds like the beaches were crowded the past couple days. sounds like we are probably going statewide "stay home" on Monday, which probably isn't a bad idea..... many of us are already not working because of this, and some like hotels are capitalizing.... not helping the situation.

no confirmed cases in my county yet, but with all of the traffic the past few days, i'm sure there will be within a few days.

 

[Bl704]

I read where someone mentioned, tongue in cheek, a hybrid quarantine model the other day, where only people over 60 or with multiple chronic illnesses quarantine themselves. If this pandemic goes on at this rate, this may really become a viable option to help both the economy and medical system.

Fwiw Italy has already given up on 60+ yo. Dark.

 

[roosiebull]

Went do to straighten up where I keep my home improvement/landscape tools today and stopped in a mall parking lot to eat a sandwich....just looking around at all the small business shops and two restaurants/pubs closed thinking about it may be like this for 2-3 months and some of these spots will never re-open.

if this goes on very long, it's going to hammer a lot of people, start them back at ground zero..... that's tough for me to think about.... there will be way to many for everyone to care about..... hope the govt steps up and helps those people.

I can imagine someone saving their money to start a small business to have something that's theirs and they can be proud of, get the ball rolling and have this happen, get too far behind and just have to pull the plug..... I bet a lot of similar scenarios play out here soon, unless there is some major govt intervention.

it's not the best timing for me either, but i'm sure I have it a hell of a lot better than many right now. I do think as a whole, we'll bounce back pretty quick once we get back to our lives.

my feelings on this whole situation seem to be changing like the tides.... not sure what to think of this or expect.... both in the virus and the economical effects of it.

there is still a lot not adding up, but I guess our only choice is to ride it out and find the answers when the dust settles.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

if this goes on very long, it's going to hammer a lot of people, start them back at ground zero..... that's tough for me to think about.... there will be way to many for everyone to care about..... hope the govt steps up and helps those people.

I can imagine someone saving their money to start a small business to have something that's theirs and they can be proud of, get the ball rolling and have this happen, get too far behind and just have to pull the plug..... I bet a lot of similar scenarios play out here soon, unless there is some major govt intervention.

it's not the best timing for me either, but i'm sure I have it a hell of a lot better than many right now. I do think as a whole, we'll bounce back pretty quick once we get back to our lives.

my feelings on this whole situation seem to be changing like the tides.... not sure what to think of this or expect.... both in the virus and the economical effects of it.

there is still a lot not adding up, but I guess our only choice is to ride it out and find the answers when the dust settles.

I started a construction business this last year. I haven't made any money yet due to the debt associated with doing it. I sure hope people keep building and remodeling or, its going to turn out as the poster child for the bad timing. I also started a landscaping business buying two crews worth of equipment. Mowers, blowers, trimmers, edgers, trailers, trucks, etc.... I sure hope people can afford to still have this service as it will turn out as the poster child for filing bankruptcy if not. Whatever happens, happens. I can't do a thing about it if things don't improve except start over.

It is interesting to me that I have yet to hear of any major creditors saying they will work with borrowers at this point. If we were to get lucky and contain this to the areas being impacted the worse now, I don't suspect there would be much grace given in other areas. Even though the scare of this alone has already damaged these kinds of services every where. If this went away tomorrow, small business would feel the impacts for years as is. It doesn't look good.

 

[Rmauch20]

What do you do for a living?

Police officer

 

[EastMT]

Basically if this financial situation gets drawn out and absolutely kills retirements, that’s how we ended up with Social Security. Probably end up with another never ending, under funded program.

I hope we don’t get a Newer, Bigger Deal. Hopefully we ride it out and come out better.

 

[roosiebull]

I started a construction business this last year. I haven't made any money yet due to the debt associated with doing it. I sure hope people keep building and remodeling or, its going to turn out as the poster child for the bad timing. I also started a landscaping business buying two crews worth of equipment. Mowers, blowers, trimmers, edgers, trailers, trucks, etc.... I sure hope people can afford to still have this service as it will turn out as the poster child for filing bankruptcy if not. Whatever happens, happens. I can't do a thing about it if things don't improve except start over.

It is interesting to me that I have yet to hear of any major creditors saying they will work with borrowers at this point. If we were to get lucky and contain this to the areas being impacted the worse now, I don't suspect there would be much grace given in other areas. Even though the scare of this alone has already damaged these kinds of services every where. If this went away tomorrow, small business would feel the impacts for years as is. It doesn't look good.

I feel for you man, I do think we'll bounce back quick as long as you can hang in there for a bit and weather this storm. my brother has a landscaping business, i'm a fisherman.... I have trended into the tourist based end the last year (what I grew up doing) because I was sick of being gone so much during my 17yrs commercial fishing.... still hoping to spend more than I have to get my own thing going, but of course i'll have to see how this all plays out.

i'm not scared of debt as long as I can work, but if people aren't spending money, i'll have to go back to commercial fishing, but feel fortunate I didn't just put myself 200k more into debt right now.... planned on doing that this winter.... again, lucky.

you being established for a year is a blessing too.... that helps, but this will be a setback for many of us.

 

[menhaden_man]

Nice article without as much doom and gloom

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'

A Nobel laureate predicted China's recovery weeks before it happened. Analyzing the numbers, he sees a much brighter global outcome than many experts.

news.yahoo.com

 

[WV Mountaineer]

I'd hate to loose everything I've fought to get. Bu

I feel for you man, I do think we'll bounce back quick as long as you can hang in there for a bit and weather this storm. my brother has a landscaping business, i'm a fisherman.... I have trended into the tourist based end the last year (what I grew up doing) because I was sick of being gone so much during my 17yrs commercial fishing.... still hoping to spend more than I have to get my own thing going, but of course i'll have to see how this all plays out.

i'm not scared of debt as long as I can work, but if people aren't spending money, i'll have to go back to commercial fishing, but feel fortunate I didn't just put myself 200k more into debt right now.... planned on doing that this winter.... again, lucky.

you being established for a year is a blessing too.... that helps, but this will be a setback for many of us.

I'm blessed either way it goes. Its just stuff. If I have my health, I'll make it back

 

[MtnOyster]

So.....I’m curious, and maybe we should start a poll

How many think we should open all business and let this run its course, who ever lives...lives and who ever dies....dies ??

We are doing the total opposite right now but it’s clear some think we shouldn’t be....

 

[Jskaanland]

I started a construction business this last year. I haven't made any money yet due to the debt associated with doing it. I sure hope people keep building and remodeling or, its going to turn out as the poster child for the bad timing. I also started a landscaping business buying two crews worth of equipment. Mowers, blowers, trimmers, edgers, trailers, trucks, etc.... I sure hope people can afford to still have this service as it will turn out as the poster child for filing bankruptcy if not. Whatever happens, happens. I can't do a thing about it if things don't improve except start over.

It is interesting to me that I have yet to hear of any major creditors saying they will work with borrowers at this point. If we were to get lucky and contain this to the areas being impacted the worse now, I don't suspect there would be much grace given in other areas. Even though the scare of this alone has already damaged these kinds of services every where. If this went away tomorrow, small business would feel the impacts for years as is. It doesn't look good.

Hang in there man. My wife and I own a 3 year old business. Our first year open we lost 12 days to weather. To make our payment, we were rolling quarters, dimes, nickels and pennies from our "vacation fund." We came out the other side, I hope you will too.

 

[roosiebull]

So.....I’m curious, and maybe we should start a poll

How many think we should open all business and let this run its course, who ever lives...lives and who ever dies....dies ??

We are doing the total opposite right now but it’s clear some think we shouldn’t be....

with the info we have to work with right now, I think we are doing the right thing.… I would rather have the financial burden than trend towards what's happening in Italy.

the unknowns kind of force us into playing it safe, and I do think we will get this under wraps fairly quick (hope)

I have not seen many imply to just open all businesses and run it's course. I am intrigued by the hybrid quarantine idea, but maybe it's not a good course of action.

 

[Lou Sid]

Just saw this. Everyone should watch this.

 

[Dos Perros]

So.....I’m curious, and maybe we should start a poll

How many think we should open all business and let this run its course, who ever lives...lives and who ever dies....dies ??

We are doing the total opposite right now but it’s clear some think we shouldn’t be....

I hate binary options. No room for nuance or pragmatism.

Politicians love binary, though, because most people can’t process more than two options.

 

[MtnOyster]

There were some comments early (week or two ago) that were fairly pissed when we closed businesses for public safety, I also answered one earlier today, I do hate the burden this is gonna put on families but some really think we should just let it roll for the sake of the economy but by doing so it could actually make our economy just as bad in the long run if not worse with so many deaths if we chose that route.

 

[KSP277]

Statistics show 15%to 75% of statistics are inaccurate.

 

[MtnOyster]

I hate binary options. No room for nuance or pragmatism.

Politicians love binary, though, because most people can’t process more than two options.

Haha.......so do lawyers!