What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[SlickStickSlinger]

Sorry for my rant yesterday. I was venting. It was borne out of frustration, fear, lack of resources, and stress. Where i live in northern MI we have very little cases. Our hospital has been sending some of us nurses to Detroit and it is bad. I have coleagues that are very sick, some are just at home, some are hospitalized, some are on vents, 1 doc just died. 1 of our nurses just spent a month in icu. It is (maybe) starting to slow a little in our hotspots but is creeping north slowly. My post was pretty bad and I probably shouldn't have wrote it but I won't change it.

On a better note I managed to go land a few steelhead today.

I appreciate your willingness of sacrifice and dedication to fellow Americans.

Thank you for your service!

There is no rest in war and the only easy day was yesterday. Keep grinding!

 

[WV Mountaineer]

I'm all for people sharing opinion but, this all seems like alot of "copy & pasting" to confuse people, of which your trying to make a point. Which maybe you are but honestly by the time I made it to the end, I was confused about what point your making. As I'd assume, as were other folks. Confused that is.

Anywho...moving on....

I'm am curious about the "frontline" workers. The frontliners that I know here dont speak of it being all that much different around my area in NC. I'm hearing reports that most hospitals in the US are well under capacity. I'm hearing reports that medical workers are being laid off in different areas of the US. But, on this site, seems we have nurses everywhere, being lucky to make it off their shift with their life? Maybe all the nurses being spoke of here are located in hot spots? Hmm, what are the chances? Maybe that's why people are taking "frontline" workers opinion with a grain of salt. Cause I too know plenty of them and, I dont hear any of this. GF is a nurse anesthetists, her two best friends, Intensive Care Nurse, and a Paramedic. So see, a bunch of us know medical people, and their not all saying the same thing. But yea, go ahead and point a finger at us for questioning the frontliners, while frontliners are questioning frontliners.

I still find the death toll numbers and, peoples reaction to it surprising. People are dieing and just being added to the death toll regardless of underlying issues, regardless if their already on their death bed ready to die any hour from something else, regardless if they've been tested, but yet people still want to debate it being under reported. These numbers are so inaccurate, seriously think, why even report it? Logically it doesnt make sense. All it's doing is causing fear. It's amazing how so many people lack the ability to think through information laid out in front of them, but have no problem just repeating things they've heard, with no critical thinking of the information given. I see it everyday in the work field. Now we see it here, nearly daily.

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Great post. FWIW, I suspect there are monies attached to the severity it hits in the states. I could be wrong. But, I don't think so.

 

[Jauwater]

Great post. FWIW, I suspect there are monies attached to the severity it hits in the states. I could be wrong. But, I don't think so.

I bet your probably right. I actually wanna say I've read that some where. Kinda like what jmez was saying, I've read so many articles and have heard so many reports I forget where I read or seen what. Information is coming in so fast it's easy to forget the good stuff

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[007hunter]

Unrest is growing...

 

[MattB]

Lots of Rokslider general discussion forum posters in Lansing today apparently.

I'd post a link as to what I am referring to, but apparently I don't have to if I don't feel like it. Because Google.

 

[jmez]

Well deserved too, I might add.

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[sasquatch]

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[blueyceman]

Definitions/Notes Only deaths that occurred on or after March 11 are included (March 11 was the first date of death for a confirmed death).

A death is classified as confirmed if the decedent was a New York City resident who had a positive SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) laboratory test.

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

A death is classified as not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 if the decedent died in New York City (NYC resident or residency pending) had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and the death certificate does not list COVID-19 or an equivalent as a cause of death.

As new information becomes available, some deaths previously classified as probable or not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 may be reclassified as laboratory-confirmed.

That is from the NY Dept of Health.

It is incorrect to classify the deaths without a test. They should be left as probable or suspect but not counted as laboratory confirmed. They are no laboratory confirmed. There are no pathognomonic pre mortem signs with Covid. There are clinical signs consistent with a respiratory disease and they are pretty generic. Any respiratory infection is going to list fever, coughing, and shortness of breath as clinical signs.

There may be postmortem pathology that is pathognomonic. No one has been talking about that. If there is and all of these are having autopsies then that would allow them to be confirmed without a pre mortem test.

You can't just simply lump them all under Covid becasuse we are in the midst of an outbreak. Science doesn't work that way. No way any of that information is going to pass peer review if that is what they are doing. It says right in the orignial NYTimes article that the CDC only wants the numbers reported to them that have a positive test. There is a reason for that.

Science and math, garbage in will always equal garbage out. You can't go back and "sort it out later."

Here is a news article from the local paper detailing the accounts of a retired orthopaedic surgeon who has been battling COVID19. She has tested NEGATIVE on two separate occasions for the virus, yet doctors at Vanderbilt are convinced she is fighting COVID19. The doctors at this medical center stated one patient finally received a positive COVID19 designation on the fourth test. In the experience of this Vanderbilt Medical Center, 30-50% of negative COVID19 tests they see are false negatives - they're actually positive. If some of these people end up dead in the ICU, and tested three times negative for COVID despite showing all the classic symptoms, you really think they shouldn't be classified in some way as a COVID-related death? Science has to factor these cases in. More accurate testing would also be a great help.

 

[Trevor73402]

Here is a news article from the local paper detailing the accounts of a retired orthopaedic surgeon who has been battling COVID19. She has tested NEGATIVE on two separate occasions for the virus, yet doctors at Vanderbilt are convinced she is fighting COVID19. The doctors at this medical center stated one patient finally received a positive COVID19 designation on the fourth test. In the experience of this Vanderbilt Medical Center, 30-50% of negative COVID19 tests they see are false negatives - they're actually positive. If some of these people end up dead in the ICU, and tested three times negative for COVID despite showing all the classic symptoms, you really think they shouldn't be classified in some way as a COVID-related death? Science has to factor these cases in. More accurate testing would also be a great help.

View attachment 172175

Ok.

 

[PMcGee]

Here is a news article from the local paper detailing the accounts of a retired orthopaedic surgeon who has been battling COVID19. She has tested NEGATIVE on two separate occasions for the virus, yet doctors at Vanderbilt are convinced she is fighting COVID19. The doctors at this medical center stated one patient finally received a positive COVID19 designation on the fourth test. In the experience of this Vanderbilt Medical Center, 30-50% of negative COVID19 tests they see are false negatives - they're actually positive. If some of these people end up dead in the ICU, and tested three times negative for COVID despite showing all the classic symptoms, you really think they shouldn't be classified in some way as a COVID-related death? Science has to factor these cases in. More accurate testing would also be a great help.

View attachment 172175

If a person has died and has not tested positive or not even been tested at all no they shouldn’t be counted. You think it is right they are over reporting deaths but under reporting total cases?


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[blueyceman]

If a person has died and has not tested positive or not even been tested at all no they shouldn’t be counted. You think it is right they are over reporting deaths but under reporting total cases?


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No - I'm saying if a person has had classic symptoms, but a negative test at Vanderbilt AND the doctors there believe they have COVID19 despite the negative test, perhaps they should be counted if they pass. Read the article. I trust doctors at Vanderbilt a lot more than the experts on this forum.

 

[Dos Perros]

I bet I could pee on 10 pregnancy sticks and get one of them to tell me I’m pregnant.

 

[Btaylor]

I bet I could pee on 10 pregnancy sticks and get one of them to tell me I’m pregnant.

Did you catch the Bruce Gender?

 

[PMcGee]

No - I'm saying if a person has had classic symptoms, but a negative test at Vanderbilt AND the doctors there believe they have COVID19 despite the negative test, perhaps they should be counted if they pass. Read the article. I trust doctors at Vanderbilt a lot more than the experts on this forum.

An educated guess is still a guess.
Doctors have been wrong before.
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[eamyrick]

I work as a cop in a fairly big city and we have people die all the time from unknown illness/disease, especially low income/homeless folks. It’s typically classified as diabetes complication/heart attack etc. It would be unfortunate if these unexplained deaths all started being counted as CV-19.

 

[jmez]

Maybe she is testing negative because she doesn't have Covid. Even with a 50-50 split there is just as good a chance she doesn't actually have it than she does.

All tests are going to come out of a lab with >/= 95% sensitivity and specificity. Put them in the real world and that goes down because you are out of a controlled environment. One of the reasons they don't soley rely on a negative test result if you have clinical signs. The more times a test is run and comes back negative the higher the probability that the test is actually correct. These tests have been rushed to market but still aren't going to be anywhere near 50% sensitive. If tests are only 50/50 then it is a sampling site/handling issue, not a test issue.

A few Dr's in Tennessee, not exactly the front line, think the tests are bad. They should publish a paper documenting their 50% sensitivity rate. Everyone has a selective memory. If these Dr.'s test a thousand patients and the test comes back as they expect they aren't going to remember or pay it much attention. If they have one patient they are just sure has it and it takes 4 tests to confirm, they remember that and then start applying that. This is the very reason we have science, testing, and need real numbers, not suspected numbers.

Lab Corp PCR test has a 95% sensitivity FDA sheet

Sample source was a big deal in China as to the effectiveness of tests. If this lady hasn't had a BAL she probably should. The viral load is going to be highest in the nasopharynx in the initial stages of the infection. With time that goes down. If these negatives are all from nasal swabs that isn't a test problem. The longer it goes the deeper you need to go to find it.

Sample source makes a difference, 93% detection rate in a BAL,. JAMA



There are also serology tests available as well that list very high sensitivity and specificity. Approved for use in the US. You will seroconvert within 11 days. If this lady is three weeks in then run an antibody test. Maybe they have, none of that is documented in the article. A big problem with news stories, they leave out a lot of pertinent information. Currently 3 antibody tests available in the US. These are more accurate than the point of care tests as sample collection and handling don't have much of an effect on the result.

Serology testing

You are correct in that I don't think someone that has generic respiratory disease signs should be coded as a Covid death when they test negative. If you are going to apply the criteria of signs, death=Covid and claim tests are 50-50 at best then there is no reason for testing at all. Just classify everyone that has respiratory signs as a Covid patient and if they die classify them as a Covid death. If we do this then your death rate is going to drop below 1%. You are also going to have 0 useful information to draw conclusions.

They should be classified under a different category, as suspect or probable, not as confirmed.

 

[jmez]

I'll also add, be careful about "news" stories and articles. There are stories all over about single cases of young healthy people contracting the disease and dying. This is going to happen. No one has said you can't contract the virus and die if you are young and healthy. You can, some will, it is to be expected. It is tragic for anyone that dies of the virus, it makes a better story if you don't fit the profile. They are plastered all over the news every day.

How many stories have you seen about someone with serious pre existing conditions that contracted the virus and died? Or elderly people? Or people that actually fit the profile of those expected to die that get the virus? Me either. These are none less tragic, and none less important, but they don't make a good story and tug at the heartstrings like the outliers.

Yet the numbers don't lie and don't change, no matter how many singular articles are out there.





Those charts are updated daily. You must use caution with singular news stories, they are just that stories.

 

[Erno86]

I heard on the TV news this morning:

The 19 in Covid-19...stands for the year the virus was discovered --- As during the year of 2019.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I heard on the TV news this morning:

The 19 in Covid-19...stands for the year the virus was discovered --- As during the year of 2019.

Discovered or developed?

 

[jmez]

I heard on the TV news this morning:

The 19 in Covid-19...stands for the year the virus was discovered --- As during the year of 2019.

China had the first case in Dec, that we know of.