What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[jmez]

If I look outside and it's sunny and the weatherman comes on and forecasts that a Hurricane is barreling down on me. He then says there is an 80% chance that you will have no to mild wind damage. 10% chance that you will have moderate damage. 10% chance you will have severe damage and a 1% chance that you will die. I wouldn't leave and I wouldn't board up my house.

I wouldn't concern myself with what my neighbors were doing.

 

[Dos Perros]

There is a major difference though.

Every other cause of death on your list has established treatments/preventions to mitigate their numbers. No such treatments and mitigation’s exist for Covid.

It is also the only cause on the list that is exponentially rising.

I fear it will overtake many on your list.

Why not do what we can to slow the spread?

Because doing “what we can to slow the spread” is not in a vacuum. There are consequences to the doing of what we can. I have yet to see anyone forecast the costs and impacts of doing what we can. How can we make a proper evaluation with incomplete data?

 

[realunlucky]

If I look outside and it's sunny and the weatherman comes on and forecasts that a Hurricane is barreling down on me. He then says there is an 80% chance that you will have no to mild wind damage. 10% chance that you will have moderate damage. 10% chance you will have severe damage and a 1% chance that you will die. I wouldn't leave and I wouldn't board up my house.

I wouldn't concern myself with what my neighbors were doing.

If you only believe the weather you can physically see why watch the weather man and bitch about what he says is going to happen?

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[THBZN]

If I look outside and it's sunny and the weatherman comes on and forecasts that a Hurricane is barreling down on me. He then says there is an 80% chance that you will have no to mild wind damage. 10% chance that you will have moderate damage. 10% chance you will have severe damage and a 1% chance that you will die. I wouldn't leave and I wouldn't board up my house.

I wouldn't concern myself with what my neighbors were doing.

Interesting angle. Also I like the 101% total? Or is your 1% hypothetical part of the last 10% hypothetical severe damage? I see your point, but that it has similarities to what is currently going on. Could you sub in the CDC or WHO for the weatherman? How confident are you in those odds?

No concern for what your neighbors are doing? Really? I would have to respectfully disagree. I have watched my neighbors drive way too damn fast up our street while my 8 year old son is riding his bike....yep, I am concerned with their behavior. I then intervene to change their behavior (ask them to) because it puts others in danger. It is the "I don't care, I will do what I want" neighbors that will add to this issue.

 

[CorbLand]

The problem with the situation that we are in is that we will never know if the precautions we have taken actually helped or not. We dont have a controlled environment for both sides doing exactly opposite things. When this is all set and done, some are going to say that we did what we needed to and some are going to say we over exaggerated it. WE WILL NEVER KNOW.

The problem with comparing this to other things is you also have to look at the fact that we do take precautions to reduce the risk of dying with those things and that none of those things overwhelm a medical system. One car wreck doesn't overwhelm a hospital but maybe have 1000 car wrecks going to one hospital all at once, or in one day and see what happens. It also doesn't increase my risk of getting in a car wreck if my neighbor does. It actually decreases my likely hood. A virus doesn't work that way.

 

[jmez]

The 1% is overall. 80% mild to no symptoms, 10 % moderate symptoms, 10% severe cases. Of the 100% of cases 1% will die. Personally, I think that number is going to come in around .5% when all is said and done.

Of all the numbers floating around out there, the 80.10.10 seem to be the only ones consistent and well accepted.

 

[jmez]

If you only believe the weather you can physically see why watch the weather man and bitch about what he says is going to happen?

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Decision based on the %'s given, not what is seen.

 

[Billinsd]

Democrat politicians in CA were way ahead of Trump on a response to COVID-19. Generally speaking, I deplore most decisions they make but they were weeks ahead of Trump on this.

Governor Newsom has done a great job regarding the virus. I deplore everything I've heard him say and do otherwise. The Republicans running San Diego, and San Diego County have done a great job as well. Trump was distracted by a phoney impeachment and was lied to by China. Trump at first didn't want to panick the country or damage the economy. He was cautious. The United States has two major layers of government, the state and the national layer. This type of system is called Federalism where more than one layer of government has jurisdiction over the same territory. There are only 15 federal republics in the world. In the US we have a Federalist system because we were once colonies, with diverse populations and needs. The framers envisioned that state governments, not the the national government, would be the main unit of government for citizens on a day to day basis. This seems to be lost on much of the population. Bill

 

[Matt Cashell]

I wouldn't concern myself with what my neighbors were doing.

Well, they might be concerned about what you’re doing, especially if they are elderly asthmatics.

I am not worried about dying from this virus. I am not worried about my kids.

I am worried about contributing to the spread.

 

[Billinsd]

If models and stats are so great how did this catch us by surprise?

Everyone who say those stats should have been prepared.

I asked a geologist an engineering geologist and a geophysicist what 1 + 1 is. The geologist said "between 1 and 3", the engineering geologist said "2.000000", and the geophysicist said "what would you like it to be?" I heard this in the mid eighties. Replace geophysicist with modeler. By the way I took several geophysical classes. Models and modeling aren't bad, however you need to be very careful, cautious, and skeptical interpreting the results. Bill

 

[Billinsd]

You must read CNN.
CA was one of the first hotspots. The politicians are failing miserably if their timeline is close to the national timeline! The federal government is for backing up the states, not forcing them unless they are really doing poorly. How was CA "weeks" ahead? Trump declared a national emergency 9 days after California.

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California imposed drastic, draconian actions very quickly, which seems to have kept the infection rate down low. Bill

 

[Billinsd]

Tracking away from banter whether CA dems handled it much better than Trump, CA seems to be trending better than many. Given its the state with the largest population by far and was one of the first exposed with tons of travel from China.

State governments job is different than federal government. California has done the best job by far!!!!! of any other huge state, like New York. Comparing California to Feds is apples to oranges, because they have different responsibilities. Bill

 

[Billinsd]

But it doesn''t have a 10%-20% mortality rate. You can what if all day, the mortality rate of this bug is going to come in around .5% when they work back all the numbers. Exactly what you would expect with the apparent morbidity rate.

I sure hope so, but it will probably be more like 1 or 1.5. That's 10 times more deadly than flu.

 

[Billinsd]

There's politicians, presidents, news media, and roksliders that need to have nice helping of crow.

People have definitely been wrong, myself included. No one could predict what would happen and China who could have helped lied.

Reading through this thread, I really hope most of us aren't in positions to make public policy or decisions.

None of us have the information our President and Governors have.

Some of you seem to be flippant about human lives.

Some here I believe were worried about crashing the economy and hurting Americans for another flu. We were cautious and skeptical of the government and fake media. We believed more people would suffer by crashing the economy than the lives lost by another flu. Bill

 

[jmez]

Valid points Corb. But a lot of those numbers I posted are just accepted numbers that no one worries about because they aren't new.

Influenza is a good example of that. We know that it is going to kill around 30,000 people every year. That number stays pretty static, everyone is kind of aware but no one really cares. How many people do you know take extra measures to avoid the flu? Pretty much no one. Until Covid workplaces and schools are filled with people every day that don't feel good and are hacking and coughing all over the place. We all think, man they should stay home, though most of us wouldn't. It is just part of life in the winter.

We have a vaccine for influenza. About 35% of the adult population gets vaccinated. Most can't be bothered because we don't worry about flu. It's been here forever. We accept the risk. The vaccine is about 40%-50-% effective year to year. That is a whole lot of sick people and deaths that could likely be mitigated if people bothered to care.

I'm not comparing the two diseases, just presenting a point of accepted and known vs not.

I would still like someone to actually discuss numbers on the overwhelming the healthcare system. No one has even mentioned them. No one is talking about them. I'm a numbers guy. I'm not a "We have to do somthing" guy. Show me the numbers or even a semblance of them, look at the options, look at how those options may change the numbers, consider the consequences, decide if you have a means to an end.

New York has an overwhelmed healthcare system currently. They list 102,863 cases, that is a false number. It is far too low. They list 2,935 deaths, that is a much more reliable number. Using the numbers we have, 2.9% death rate, .5% of the population of New York has been affected and overwhelmed the healthcare system. Does lockdown and social distancing really ameliorate the problem for the remaining 99.5% of the population? Someone needs to answer that question with real numbers. How long does it take, even with exponential growth?

Even if they miss the infection rate by 10x, that puts your total cases at 1.2 million. That is now 6% of the population. You have an overwhelmed healthcare system that has yet to account for 96% of the population. With that, the death numbers don't change. That makes your death rate .2%.

 

[jmez]

There is only one cause of death on your list that wasn't there last year . And there is only one that is doubling every three to four days.
Seems like you are trying to compare a novel pandemic to known annual cause of death statistics. Hardly apples to apples.

Took that covid number 10 days to double as of today.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

MN called out Hunting and Fishing as A O.K. as well.

If the Department of Social Services in your state issues susbsitence licenses kind of hard to make it non essential activity.

 

[S.Clancy]

Valid points Corb. But a lot of those numbers I posted are just accepted numbers that no one worries about because they aren't new.

Influenza is a good example of that. We know that it is going to kill around 30,000 people every year. That number stays pretty static, everyone is kind of aware but no one really cares. How many people do you know take extra measures to avoid the flu? Pretty much no one. Until Covid workplaces and schools are filled with people every day that don't feel good and are hacking and coughing all over the place. We all think, man they should stay home, though most of us wouldn't. It is just part of life in the winter.

We have a vaccine for influenza. About 35% of the adult population gets vaccinated. Most can't be bothered because we don't worry about flu. It's been here forever. We accept the risk. The vaccine is about 40%-50-% effective year to year. That is a whole lot of sick people and deaths that could likely be mitigated if people bothered to care.

I'm not comparing the two diseases, just presenting a point of accepted and known vs not.

I would still like someone to actually discuss numbers on the overwhelming the healthcare system. No one has even mentioned them. No one is talking about them. I'm a numbers guy. I'm not a "We have to do somthing" guy. Show me the numbers or even a semblance of them, look at the options, look at how those options may change the numbers, consider the consequences, decide if you have a means to an end.

New York has an overwhelmed healthcare system currently. They list 102,863 cases, that is a false number. It is far too low. They list 2,935 deaths, that is a much more reliable number. Using the numbers we have, 2.9% death rate, .5% of the population of New York has been affected and overwhelmed the healthcare system. Does lockdown and social distancing really ameliorate the problem for the remaining 99.5% of the population? Someone needs to answer that question with real numbers. How long does it take, even with exponential growth?

Even if they miss the infection rate by 10x, that puts your total cases at 1.2 million. That is now 6% of the population. You have an overwhelmed healthcare system that has yet to account for 96% of the population. With that, the death numbers don't change. That makes your death rate .2%.

US population 2020 is ~330,000,000. If you assume 50% will get it, in the lower quartile of the herd immunity #'s, thats 165,000,000. Assuming a .2% death rate over the extent of the pandemic, that's 330,000 deaths. Those are real numbers using your assumed death rate. Let us assume that death rate increases with increasing patient load, which is logical given finite #'s of providers and equipment. So you could have a doubling, tripling, of the death rate over periods of time.
The difficulty here is actions are not likely to affect your life, but someone you would have never met. In my opinion, we will have done enough if, in the future, it looks like we did far too much.

 

[CorbLand]

Valid points Corb. But a lot of those numbers I posted are just accepted numbers that no one worries about because they aren't new.

Influenza is a good example of that. We know that it is going to kill around 30,000 people every year. That number stays pretty static, everyone is kind of aware but no one really cares. How many people do you know take extra measures to avoid the flu? Pretty much no one. Until Covid workplaces and schools are filled with people every day that don't feel good and are hacking and coughing all over the place. We all think, man they should stay home, though most of us wouldn't. It is just part of life in the winter.

We have a vaccine for influenza. About 35% of the adult population gets vaccinated. Most can't be bothered because we don't worry about flu. It's been here forever. We accept the risk. The vaccine is about 40%-50-% effective year to year. That is a whole lot of sick people and deaths that could likely be mitigated if people bothered to care.

I'm not comparing the two diseases, just presenting a point of accepted and known vs not.

I would still like someone to actually discuss numbers on the overwhelming the healthcare system. No one has even mentioned them. No one is talking about them. I'm a numbers guy. I'm not a "We have to do somthing" guy. Show me the numbers or even a semblance of them, look at the options, look at how those options may change the numbers, consider the consequences, decide if you have a means to an end.

New York has an overwhelmed healthcare system currently. They list 102,863 cases, that is a false number. It is far too low. They list 2,935 deaths, that is a much more reliable number. Using the numbers we have, 2.9% death rate, .5% of the population of New York has been affected and overwhelmed the healthcare system. Does lockdown and social distancing really ameliorate the problem for the remaining 99.5% of the population? Someone needs to answer that question with real numbers. How long does it take, even with exponential growth?

Even if they miss the infection rate by 10x, that puts your total cases at 1.2 million. That is now 6% of the population. You have an overwhelmed healthcare system that has yet to account for 96% of the population. With that, the death numbers don't change. That makes your death rate .2%.

I wont pretend to know the numbers. All I know is that I havent talked to a doctor, nurse or pharmacist that isnt a little worried about what this could become and I know quite a few. I think the idea is to slow it down long enough to let things catch up.

I do think there is major difference in the flu versus this, that being we know the season for the flu. We have an idea of when it will begin and when it will end. We have no clue that this will do. To say that no one does anything to not catch the flu is also incorrect. Lots of people dont go places during the flu season and 40% of the population get the shot. That right there reduces 40% of the entire population from getting it (give or take). We also have years worth of data and know the risks of the flu. We also know who is most at risk and what precautions need to be taken. We have known this disease for three months. There are way to many unknowns to make accurate comparisons.

I dont necessarily agree or disagree with the steps that have been taken. I honestly have mixed feelings on it but I also look and say that the majority of the world is doing the same things. There must be some merit to it. Like I said, we will never know what this could have been or what it really was. People need to realize that their actions dont just affect them. They do affect others.

I liken this to seat belt laws. I dont like them and honestly rarely wear my seat belt. My mother in law thinks they are the dumbest thing because if "I want to risk my own life, I have the right to do that." Thats the problem, seat belt laws dont prevent you from risking your own life. They prevent you from going through the window and killing someone else.

 

[jmez]

US population 2020 is ~330,000,000. If you assume 50% will get it, in the lower quartile of the herd immunity #'s, thats 165,000,000. Assuming a .2% death rate over the extent of the pandemic, that's 330,000 deaths. Those are real numbers using your assumed death rate. Let us assume that death rate increases with increasing patient load, which is logical given finite #'s of providers and equipment. So you could have a doubling, tripling, of the death rate over periods of time.
The difficulty here is actions are not likely to affect your life, but someone you would have never met. In my opinion, we will have done enough if, in the future, it looks like we did far too much.

The other difficulty here is that the actions being taken affect everyone's life. We aren't playing a sum zero game here. How long does it take to get to 168,000,000 cases? It took 3 days to go from 50,000 to 100,000. It then took 6 days to go from 100,000 to 200,000. The trend in numbers keeps going to the right, increased doubling time. They keep moving the metric. When the lockdown talk started it was 2 weeks. That went to 4 weeks, its now gone to 8 weeks and beyond.

You keep the country shut down until we get into the lower quartile of herd immunity, you will cause a depression. That costs lives, that costs families, that cost livelihoods. Is a life saved from a virus worth more than one lost in the consequence? You do far too much your future could be a third world country.

The lockdown talk sounds great. It makes us feel safe. In your numbers assuming 50% will get it. Again, New York, assuming they are missing the mark by a factor of 10, they still have 46% of the population to go. Their healthcare system is overwhelmed at 4%. How long do you prolong this to get through the remaining 46% without overwhelming the system?