jmez
WKR
Since we're only at 553 it really isn't that interesting.
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Some sobering numbers:
7.7 billion total global population
If infection rates for total population in the next year are kept to 5%, total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .05 = 385,000,000 infected
If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .01 = 3,850,000 dead in the next year
If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .043 = 16,555,000 dead in the next year
If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .08 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year
If global infection rates are allowed to reach 40%, the total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .4 = 3,080,000,000 infected
If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .01 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year
If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .043 = 132,440,000 dead in the next year
If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .08 = 246,400,000 dead in the next year
Several sources are claiming that Global infection rates could hit 70% or higher over the next year, even with moderate social distancing. That works out to:
7,700,000,000 * .7 = 5,390,000,000 infected in the next year
If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .01 = 53,900,00 dead in the next year
If you take the current updated estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .043 = 231,770,000 dead in the next year
If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .08 = 431,200,000 dead in the next year
If global infection rates double every 5 days(this is what we are currently tracking on), then we reach the 5% infected rate in under 60 days from today:
375,000 3/23
* 2 3/28
* 2 4/2
* 2 4/7
* 2 4/12
* 2 4/17
* 2 4/22
* 2 4/28
* 2 5/3
* 2 5/8
* 2 = 384,000,000 on or about 5/13
Math says that we need to take drastic measures while we still can.
yeah, I think the last time I went to the dentist was 20ish yrs ago, and just a year and a half ago I kicked a 16 year chewing habit of mostly over a can a day... I probably need to go in, but likely won't until it's more urgent
Just looking at the daily infection numbers, it looks like the shelter in place orders are working in CA and WA. Not sure if it is just gaps in reporting and/or testing differentials, but WA showed 0 new cases day over day and CA showed 183. Unfortunately NY has had 5,000+ new cases in each of the past 2 days, and NY's deaths from just yesterday (43) have exceeded CA's total (38). Loisiana had 14 deaths yesterday (only other state in double digits, 34 total).
Significant decrease in both new cases and deaths the last 2 days in Italy. Hope that trend continues for them.Death from kung flu #'s are what I am watching. Seems like Italy is not rising for a few days...
How does a bank working with him, help him if those that would have bought his service, can no longer do so? How does a bank working with him fix an economy that has no consumer confidence? How does that work? Better yet, show me a bank that will be willing to work with any small business, in questionable markets. When that borrower has extended his credit and, has unfavorable markets when applying for said credit.Not sure what business your in but if it was profitable and doing well I’m sure there’s a bank that will work with you.
And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.Only ~12,500 Americans died from H1N1, just more than half of an average flu season. Not that interesting a comparison really.
COVID-19 has the potential to be many times worse than that whole. Hopefully that potential is not realized, but time will tell.
We totally get it, You hate Obama and love DT. You post it on every thread everyone on Rokslide knows by now. So many forums and topics to talk about branch out a bit for awhile and give the political banter a rest for a bit.And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.
I would attribute the fact that testing is no longer being done to find the source once community spread has been determined. Community spread has been determined in all of these areas.
Now the testing is primarily focused on treatment of those that need it. People that have mild to moderate symptoms are sent home, or told to treat at home versus going to the hospital and very few if any are getting tested.
Nobody is getting tested in most of these places unless serious or in a few select responder/provider categories.
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And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.
Yes, roughly half as many Americans died as do every flu season. In your book, that is reason to shut the borders and heaven forbid keep the CONUS from playing golf?
Not sure. i don’t know if humans could be smart enough to create something like this. I thunk media can spread it faster and harder. Not saying it’s not real because it is. It’s just hard to know what is true right now.I heard somewhere that woton has a bio weapons research facility that was quarantined. Then read some research about programs to alter the bat virus so it could infect humans back around 2015. I guess there is all kinds of bio weapon research going on all across the world? If you can transmit for 2 weeks before you show signs of the infection it would be very hard to contain anywhere.....anyone have any accurate info?