What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[jmez]

Since we're only at 553 it really isn't that interesting.

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[Bobbyboe]

Some sobering numbers:

7.7 billion total global population

If infection rates for total population in the next year are kept to 5%, total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .05 = 385,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .01 = 3,850,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .043 = 16,555,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .08 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates are allowed to reach 40%, the total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .4 = 3,080,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .01 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .043 = 132,440,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .08 = 246,400,000 dead in the next year

Several sources are claiming that Global infection rates could hit 70% or higher over the next year, even with moderate social distancing. That works out to:

7,700,000,000 * .7 = 5,390,000,000 infected in the next year

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .01 = 53,900,00 dead in the next year

If you take the current updated estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .043 = 231,770,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .08 = 431,200,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates double every 5 days(this is what we are currently tracking on), then we reach the 5% infected rate in under 60 days from today:
375,000 3/23
* 2 3/28
* 2 4/2
* 2 4/7
* 2 4/12
* 2 4/17
* 2 4/22
* 2 4/28
* 2 5/3
* 2 5/8
* 2 =‬ 384,000,000 on or about 5/13

Math says that we need to take drastic measures while we still can.

that’s a lot of ifs.....

 

[Baddog]

From a biological stand point losing 30 million out of 7.7 billion isn’t detrimental to the long term survival of the population.

 

[Doug in Alaska]

yeah, I think the last time I went to the dentist was 20ish yrs ago, and just a year and a half ago I kicked a 16 year chewing habit of mostly over a can a day... I probably need to go in, but likely won't until it's more urgent

Well you're probably younger than I am. I chewed that crap for over thirty years and finally have it up. Very hard thing to do. If your lower lip is looking good the dentist won't say a word. If not, he'll want to do a cancer screen, which you really won't like.

 

[lyingflatlander]

Seriously guys hang in there as best you can. I’m lucky as I live in a small city and we only have a dozen positives in my and all the neighboring counties combined. We have time to play with as every day our hospital system is strategically planning for a growing outbreak. Designating areas within the hospital to be emergency ICU’s and floor space for other positives that don’t require ICU care. God bless all the E.R. Staffers as they are our front line defense for all this bulls***. Today our governor shut down all unnecessary business as things are getting out of control in Milwaukee and Madison. Thankfully I live in the top half of the state. This is how I see it play out in our state; Shut down everything for 2 weeks and see if new positives decrease or plateau. If it fails shut it down for another 2 until you see a plateau. Once the plateau occurs they will open up the labor forces before schools, daycare, and other commodities. Slowly dole out other industry and services to control the spread. All they are doing is buying time so that they can build supply lines to fight this thing. All protective equipment, masks, gowns, gloves, even a local brew pub is now producing hand sanitizer. Also buying time to find a cure or to alleviate the worst symptoms. A local hospital is going to trial giving a blood transfusion to a patient that has the virus from someone who recovered from it. Yesterday the French announced that by giving a pair of antibiotics over the course of days they could alleviate the worst symptoms in some patients. This is all good stuff guys. It just sucks because it’s at the cost of all of us.

 

[LandYacht]

Just looking at the daily infection numbers, it looks like the shelter in place orders are working in CA and WA. Not sure if it is just gaps in reporting and/or testing differentials, but WA showed 0 new cases day over day and CA showed 183. Unfortunately NY has had 5,000+ new cases in each of the past 2 days, and NY's deaths from just yesterday (43) have exceeded CA's total (38). Loisiana had 14 deaths yesterday (only other state in double digits, 34 total).

I would attribute the fact that testing is no longer being done to find the source once community spread has been determined. Community spread has been determined in all of these areas.

Now the testing is primarily focused on treatment of those that need it. People that have mild to moderate symptoms are sent home, or told to treat at home versus going to the hospital and very few if any are getting tested.

Nobody is getting tested in most of these places unless serious or in a few select responder/provider categories.


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[*zap*]

Death from kung flu #'s are what I am watching. Seems like Italy is not rising for a few days...

 

[Rich M]

They seem to be promising a lot this week in US.

 

[jmez]

Death from kung flu #'s are what I am watching. Seems like Italy is not rising for a few days...

Significant decrease in both new cases and deaths the last 2 days in Italy. Hope that trend continues for them.

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[KSP277]

Took couple of the munchkins fishing this evening. Smashed some bass on a chatter bait. Had a big ole time. Got 3 million things I “need” to be doing. Note to self. Self Quarantine with the fam should be higher on the priority list. Wouldn’t mind doing it next spring. Not gonna lie, when I came home from work and my 14 year old daughter was the first one to light up when I said who wants to go fishing? I was pretty damn excited. I gave up on watching the stats few days ago, honestly haven’t read last few pages of posts. Kinda just rolling with the punches for now. And will continue to do so until something like normalcy prevails. In the mean time I’m gonna try like hell to make some memory’s for my kids of the cool stuff we did during the corona epidemic of 2020.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Not sure what business your in but if it was profitable and doing well I’m sure there’s a bank that will work with you.

How does a bank working with him, help him if those that would have bought his service, can no longer do so? How does a bank working with him fix an economy that has no consumer confidence? How does that work? Better yet, show me a bank that will be willing to work with any small business, in questionable markets. When that borrower has extended his credit and, has unfavorable markets when applying for said credit.


I’ve borrowed money from creditors 34 times in my life. 34 total. I’ve always paid it back in the past. I have always paid it on time to date, and never had a default claim on anything. But, what no bank will do is loan money against a business plan that isn’t a slam dunk in their perspective. And, nothing is going to be a slam dunk for quite a few years. That is reality.

 

[Okhotnik]

Only ~12,500 Americans died from H1N1, just more than half of an average flu season. Not that interesting a comparison really.

COVID-19 has the potential to be many times worse than that whole. Hopefully that potential is not realized, but time will tell.

And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.

 

[realunlucky]

And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.

We totally get it, You hate Obama and love DT. You post it on every thread everyone on Rokslide knows by now. So many forums and topics to talk about branch out a bit for awhile and give the political banter a rest for a bit.

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[Mike7]

I am actually feeling much more confident the past 1-2 weeks that this will not be nearly as deadly as I had feared when I first heard about this while it was still just in China. With the way it was progressing initially, suggesting its high rate of infectivity, if it was anywhere nearly as deadly as SARS 1 or MERS, that would be very worrisome. Thankfully it appears to be nowhere near that deadly.

People who are attributing the argument for opening up at least part of the economy at some point as being due to greed for paper money, and that this will certainly lead to the sacrficing of more lives unnecessarily, are misinformed on some level I believe.

How much human misery and death will occur if we go into a depression? How many, some yet unborn, will be enslaved, maybe needlessly, with mountains more of debt we are taking on with our current decisions.

The fact is that we make financial/resource related treatment and testing decisions in medicine every day when there is not a pandemic under way or a hyperventilating press focused on the medical system. And the economy is what allows us to provide the care that we do.

 

[MattB]

I would attribute the fact that testing is no longer being done to find the source once community spread has been determined. Community spread has been determined in all of these areas.

Now the testing is primarily focused on treatment of those that need it. People that have mild to moderate symptoms are sent home, or told to treat at home versus going to the hospital and very few if any are getting tested.

Nobody is getting tested in most of these places unless serious or in a few select responder/provider categories.


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The numbers just came in late in the day. Not as positive an outlook.

 

[MattB]

And 60,000,000 Americans contracted the H1 N1 while Barry Soetoro played golf kept open borders and many Americans died.

Yes, roughly half as many Americans died as do every flu season. In your book, that is reason to shut the borders and heaven forbid keep the CONUS from playing golf?

 

[jmez]

Only up about 800 from yesterday but we're still too early in it to put much stock in daily swings/numbers.

Also the testing protocols being what they are and different everywhere really skew any figures.

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[adventure907]

What if........

It isn't as deadly as initially thought, but leaves most people who get it with diminished lung function?

Still not a big deal?

 

[Okhotnik]

Yes, roughly half as many Americans died as do every flu season. In your book, that is reason to shut the borders and heaven forbid keep the CONUS from playing golf?

Serving in the military in combat I know what CONUS is do you?

 

[torysavage]

I heard somewhere that woton has a bio weapons research facility that was quarantined. Then read some research about programs to alter the bat virus so it could infect humans back around 2015. I guess there is all kinds of bio weapon research going on all across the world? If you can transmit for 2 weeks before you show signs of the infection it would be very hard to contain anywhere.....anyone have any accurate info?

Not sure. i don’t know if humans could be smart enough to create something like this. I thunk media can spread it faster and harder. Not saying it’s not real because it is. It’s just hard to know what is true right now.