A lot of people like focusing on the potential dire outcomes of CC, but really, the problem is on the front end. There is a ton of focus on CO2 emissions as the driver of CC. First, I think putting all the eggs in the CO2 basket is unwise, but also if you look at the emitters, things get very challenging.
Of global CO2 output, China is about 30%, the US 15%, followed by India at about 7% and Russia at about 5%. Every other country is less than 5%. Four countries are well over half the emissions. Seems like a slam dunk case that we are the problem because if you follow the outrage, the US bears a disproportionate amount of blame. Let's say in a perfect world we cut emissions to 0%. That means you still have 85% of the CO2 being emitted. Great! But then you STILL have to contend with the rest of the countries who either a) have no interest in cutting emissions or b) can't. For a country like Germany at about 2% of global CO2 emissions to cut to just 1% will take a massive effort for almost no net gain. In other words, they need to cut emissions by 50% to make an overall 1% difference, that's basically reshaping their entire energy system - which, by the way, will take how much energy to accomplish? How many countries can cut emissions by 50% to make these 1% changes? Germany is on 40% coal - only about 13% of their energy comes from nuclear, and small amounts from solar/wind, etc. 61% of their energy comes from fossil fuels in total. There's not enough wind or sun in Germany to replace that kind of consumption - nuclear is the only way out, which is anathema to many CC activists. So, what to do...what to do...?
Developing countries, like most of Sub-Saharan Africa will struggle to not increase their CO2 output as they develop. Take a ramble around Kenya like I just did and you will see a mass of humanity trying to NOT live in the dark ages. They want and need fresh water, constant electricity, sewer treatment - all of which needs energy, which is NOT going to come from hydro or wind. Solar is gaining, but in small hops - not leaps and bounds. But to Chuinard, these people living 'close to the ground' are models to follow because of their 'simple' lives. Simple hell - I think of Borassa, and Caroline, and Saidi - people I met who struggle to make a living and want more than they have because the struggle to put food on the table is a REAL problem. I think about the woman I saw urinating in a water-filled ditch and the fellow 200 yards downstream washing his motorcycle in the same water, and then 200 yards further down a mother washing clothes in yet still the same water - ah yes, the simple life!! There are 40 million Kenyans, most of which live in a way we could never imagine who want to move intro modernity. This will take energy, and a hell of a lot of it. Tell me how Kenya will accomplish this without assistance from those very countries who the CC alarmists want to punish with carbon taxes and restrictions? How does this work?
Don't let this mislead you into thinking I don;t give a shit about our natural world- I do, a great deal. But for every person on the "don;t do anything because it's hard," there is an equal or greater number of "just do somethings" who offer absolutely no solutions except taxes, credits, and restrictions. We CANNOT regress our way out of this - period, and punishing people is a form of regression. And you also can;t speed up the issue by just commanding people to 'find a solution." Per capita CO2 rates in the US are the same as Canada and is on the DECREASE to 1960 levels. Things are moving in the right direction regarding technolgy in general, but it's not keeping up with the energy demands of a growing population in countries seeking to move from developing to developed. The per capita trend is up almost everywhere, EXCEPT in the countries actually doing the technological work to address a more sustainable energy model (but not China) - so we ARE putting our money where our mouth is. It's just not reported so no one knows. Just check the facts from reputable sources.
Whatever we are doing to the climate by whatever fraction is something to study and work on, but, unlike many think, it can't be the ONLY thing on our minds. It has to be a part of the entire, holistic conversation about where humanity is going and how it is going to get there. And if anyone is telling their kids that they have 12 years to live, stop abusing your kid. Climate anxiety is a real thing, and it is NOT helping the situation. We need level heads working together on many different issues at once, and hysteria from any viewpoint will do nothing for real progress.
Just my .02c
