so the ammunition manufacturers are not at fault for the higher prices

[TheGDog]

Again, I don't trust most of the government.... I work in the industry we are speaking about and can tell you it is a fact there are no deals between manufacturers and the government or people with deep pockets to slow production. They would be doing a horrible job as most manufactures have already produced and shipped out more ammo than they ever have and continue to do so.

If you want to blame the government go ahead....if you want to blame stock pile d-bags and retired guys scooping everything up and selling for double or triple the price...fine by me. Don't pile on or try to throw the American manufacturers and workers under the bus by lumping them into conspiracies with the government working against the 2nd A and the general public.

I never said anything about slowing production. I said I could see them (the governance, pulling strings to) delaying it. Example, If they merely continue at current production levels... that would be delaying it. Since that money is right there on the table for the taking. To my logic it seems natural they'd increase production to capitalize on that while the demand is hot. Especially with how BHA might change legislation. And make you all now suffer the way we do in CA.

And like... Obama era... ammo was scarce... but reloading components didn't seem bad. Now? Good grief reloading components are wiped clean! It's entirely possible that this all could just be from the same ramp-up in new shooters clamoring to get a piece and arm themselves. However is it probable though? To this degree?? That's the part I struggle with. Attributing it all solely to the idea of X amount of new shooters getting added into the pool being the SOLE cause of all this. Makes my bullshit sniffer/detector go off. That's all I'm sayin'.

 

[CorbLand]

WCB, I sincerely in my heart of hearts wish and hope that you are right and that this is merely the economics of how recent events have unfolded being solely to blame. I really and truly do hope that's the case. Live and learn from it, and prepare better in the future.

However... problem is... I've walked this Earth now for more than Half a Century. And in the last 6 years I've seen some amazingly unbelievable stupendously illogical sh*t come to pass that I'd have never thought was possible before. That... and being a programmer has taught me that sometimes you need to look at the problem completely differently than what your natural inclination might lean you towards. That sometimes it just might work better if you look at it from the angle of the Tail wagging the Dog type of thing and see how that might work.

With THAT thought in mind... I put myself in the position of Biden, or more correctly whomever is funding and propping him up in there. I think about their goals. I think about what are the impediments to those goals. And if my crafty-@$$ was in that same spot, what might *I* do to get around all those pesky rules and checks-and-balances. In that mind-frame I see this time of the big scary can't-be-totally-proved-invisible-threat that grants me the free license to really really push the boundaries of my fanatical power-grab... and how I might capitalize on it to achieve my lofty end goals. In this instance, possibly delaying things for a lil bit until my packed Senate and House lets me push thru some stuff. I know it totally sounds highly improbable as all get-out. I totally get that. But part of being prepared as a coder is thinking about all possible things that could go wrong ahead of time... BEFORE they go wrong.. and implementing solutions to either prevent, or gracefully deal with them. So in this instance... I kinda just have to allow myself to role with the thought of the greed for that power being soo great, and folks with deep pockets standing to make even soo much more money if they play this right... what might they do or try to get away with since they have the ability to use this event as a giant smokescreen? Just like they used C19 to force Mail-in Ballots in a big way, ya feel what I'm saying here? Highly unlikely IS NOT the same as impossible. For DAMN sure programming, and in general the dark underhanded tendencies of human nature, has taught me that much.

No I don't feel you, at all. How does this have anything to do with programming? How does that help you understand that this is a conspiracy?

Dude, seriously you think that all the ammunition companies in the US are all in on this and not a single one has said a damn thing? I dont care how greedy you think people are, at least one of them would have said something by now.

This is really simple. Demand has outweighed supply. Prices stayed the same. Thus, there is scarcity.

Your bullshit detector isnt working correctly. This is not only because of Biden getting elected. This started back in March. Thus, reloading components are hard to come by because by the time Biden got elected it was all that was left. 9/556 have been gone since July. You are looking at this from one facet and not taking into account the whole picture.

This is far worse than the Obama era. You didn't have 8 million new gun owners in less than a year with Obama. If this was the same as the Obama era, things would still be available because nobody freaked out until he got elected. We are nearly one year into unprecedented demand, not four months.

You cant flip a switch and magically double production overnight. Business run as lean as possible to increase profits. They don't have 10 empty manufacture lines just sitting for this to happen. They cant just run out and invest millions into increase production at the flip of a switch. By the time they got any of that running demand will have decreased. They order materials in advance. Meaning that they ordered enough to facilitate anticipated sells for 2020, not the increase they saw. They also did the same for 2021 and they will be scrambling to get more to meet demand. Its not as easy as everyone thinks it is.

 

[*zap*]

People are very afraid that high taxes on ammo will be implemented and no on line sales will be allowed so they are stocking. People buying lead shot shells and making waxed slugs from them......lotsa people are not happy with what is happening in the USA and some expect trouble so they are stocking ammo.....at least 1/3 the country thinks there has been a coup de ta.....if half of them are stocking ammo that is 50 million + people stocking ammo.

 

[5MilesBack]

It's likely that very few on this hunting forum are buying at gunbroker prices and hoarding ammo (mine was lost in the boating accident last summer...)

So it's obvious we need to remember rule #1:

There's a sucker born every minute....

You have to remember, there are supposedly 7 million new gun owners in the last year. If they are new gun owners, then they are also new to ammo. They may have no idea what "normal" ammo pricing is, they just know that they have a new gun and they need ammo for it. When they find it available (like on GB) they buy it.

 

[TheGDog]

you think that all the ammunition companies in the US are all in on this and not a single one has said a damn thing?

Wha...? You are trippin hard man. Never said that. Didn't even infer it. Don't know where you're gettin' that from.

All govt would have to do is slow things up further and further upstream of the problem. Supply of raw materials. Supply of new machines related to producing components. As i'm sure they regulate them to death with red tape, etc. Be real easy to just create a delay in any one of several entities related to this chain. No?

EDIT - RE: How does this have anything to do with programming? - EVERYTHING has something to do with programming... because what do programmers, real programmers, do? They DEBUG things! Both before and after the fact. They constantly analyze stuff. What went wrong. Where did it go wrong. How can we prevent it from going wrong. DEBUG'ing is an art man. It's this thing where the sum of all your previous experiences gives your subconscious this intuition or vibe if you will.. that says to look here or look there. To formulate logical guesses about where the problem that presents with these symptoms likely lies at.

 

[CorbLand]

Wha...? You are trippin hard man. Never said that. Didn't even infer it. Don't know where you're gettin' that from.

All govt would have to do is slow things up further and further upstream of the problem. Supply of raw materials. Supply of new machines related to producing components. As i'm sure they regulate them to death with red tape, etc. Be real easy to just create a delay in any one of several entities related to this chain. No?

I am ******* done man. Anyone else want to take this up? My keyboard cant take any more abuse.

 

[Gorp2007]

I am ******* done man. Anyone else want to take this up? My keyboard cant take any more abuse.

I hear they're firing up the trusty space lasers to overheat the trucks transporting primers. Then the CIA direct action teams roll in and steal the cargo and sell the primers on GunBroker to fund the DHS chemtrail program. It's all being orchestrated by George Soros.

 

[TheGDog]

I am ******* done man. Anyone else want to take this up? My keyboard cant take any more abuse.

I'm sure your keyboard can. Pssh.. I'm willing to bet you can probably still read all your keyboard keys!

At least 10 of mine are worn blank from normal wear and tear.

 

[WCB]

I never said anything about slowing production. I said I could see them (the governance, pulling strings to) delaying it.

You just did right here....delaying would be slowing. Also, you blamed CEOs for having Plausible Deniability, which infers the CEOs know the Government is slowing things down or throwing up road block and are not admitting. Which means they would be in on it with the Government. In this day and age if the Government were doing this it would be red flagged so fast.

Also, the demand this time vs last time is soooo much higher I have seen the numbers vs previous years. NOBODY said that new shooters were 100% to blame but that is a giant leap in demand in itself. What was the estimate 7millionx2 boxes (50rds per box) =700,000,000 rounds the first go. Those same people buy 100 more rounds 1.4 Billion rounds. Now add hoarders and other people who used to buy one box now looking for shelves full....you get the drift.

The reloading components are simply going to loaded ammunition. Yes loaded ammunition makes more money for companies than selling a primer for pennies or casings or bullets. They make more money to hire more people to increase production or expand physical capacity which takes the better part of a year at any sort of measurable size. People need to realize there are 3 big players in the ammo game. Federal, Remington (when up and running) and Winchester. Hornady maybe a distance fourth....then mix in all the other ones. So take the #5 manufacturer doubling production....guess what?.. you won't notice it as they are a drop in the bucket in the real world. So to ramp up to any sizeable noticeable difference would take a huge investment and minimum a year (probably more).

People also don't realize how few companies actually make stuff and how many companies buy off of each other....You think Hornady loads all their own primers? And they are a bigger player than all the other smaller brands none of which even make a single primer. Some calibers there are 1 or 2 manufacturers of that brass plain and simple and everyone buys from them.

I'll now bow out of this line of conversation as the horse is now Pemmican.

 

[Gatorgrizz27]

People may not like it, but I believe slightly higher retail prices are exactly what need to happen to solve this problem that‘s been created.

I don’t fault people for “hoarding” ammo, the way it has been you’ve pretty much got to get what you can if you want to be able to shoot/hunt/etc. With all the 28 gauge that’s been on the shelves I’ve been buying some from time to time, despite not really needing it. I know they are going to stop running that stuff to catch up on the more popular ones, and it might not be back for a good while.

I have more of an issue with those buying it up and reselling it for a profit, however if I was out of work I don’t know that I’d be above it. A 100% ROI is hard to pass up, even if you have income.

Raising retail prices will help with both of these issues. If the hoarders have reason to believe that at some point in the near future, prices will go back down, it makes it less attractive to buy 10k rounds right now for future use.

If the gunbroker margins decrease, say to 30-50%, it makes it substantially less attractive for the resellers. As it starts re-appearing on shelves, the secondhand market will all but dry up.

 

[z987k]

We have a limit of 2 boxes per person everywhere locally. People still line up to buy it and it's all gone within an hour except for some odd stuff.

I can't see how even a 100% margin on only 2 boxes is worth your time if you take gas and gunbroker fees into account.
You'd make.. $40?

 

[Matt mi]

I think this summer you will prob get some really good garage sale ammo all over the place. If that's still legal to sell lol

 

[z987k]

You also need to factor that people are complete idiots.

I was looking at a gun on gunbroaker. All of them at going for $2-400 over MSRP. MSRP or a bit better for even used ones.

I do a check for it elsewhere... both Sportsmans and Cabelas have it in stock shipped to your local store at $100 under MSRP.