Recession Coming?

[journeyman713]

Everything high,can’t get decent deal on a vehicle if you try,i say we are far from a recession.

Agreed.

Zero down.
Zero interest.
Zero payments for 90 days.

When these days return - we are in a recession.

 

[Rich M]

That’s a big waste of an hour that could be spent working from home and being productive.

In my experience, most folks who work from home do less. At least that's my experience with my employees.

 

[wnelson14]

In my experience, most folks who work from home do less. At least that's my experience with my employees.

Yep definitely not for everyone, but does take good management to work.

 

[Rich M]

Yep definitely not for everyone, but does take good management to work.

Used to have a home-based business and an office, the office has since been modified, sitting on the couch working off a lap top is a no-go for me. Will get everything done but will take me 3x as long to do it.

 

[CorbLand]

I would have fired people who complained about working from home. Most people would love to be able to work from home. I commute over an hour to get to work. The amount of entitlement is amazing to me.

That is not what you said but ok.

Based on your first post it sounds more like people are complaining that work from home came with the mentality that it means you are always at work. Ironically, when they polled my work about work from home that was the number one response and complaint.

 

[11boo]

7% mortgages are going to sting.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

work from home, might be great for the worker. sucks for the customer.

Depends on the customer...My customers are other businesses and my contacts work from home too..No issues.

 

[The John]

Our company sent all non-essential employees to "work" from home during covid. What our company seen was a huge drop in productivity. Basically, people working a couple hrs a day and screwing around the rest. It also creates a lot of animosity with people who actually have to come to work. Nothing like someone sending you a message while they are still in their PJ's to go look at something they should be doing. When covid first hit and I actually believed it was dangerous I felt like my life was not as important as theirs. I would be more ok with it if the company cut all of their pay maybe 20% and gave a decent portion of the to the essential workers.

I hear you, I work remote for a large utility in another state and can say that not everyone works as hard as some. However I personally work longer hours at home than I did in the office. I dont have to commute each way, and during lunch I can mow my yard, run, or generally do something productive. On mondays I will fish for a few hours in the morning for spring chinook as I am on calls listening and providing updates but not presenting. What a better way to attend a meeting than in a boat (or duck hunting during October (full disclosure my boss knows that I do this, I dont hide it and is good with it).

My division manager is having select individuals start working hybrid due to their perceived work ethic.

My opinion; working from home is great, however its only great if you are working to a level that is acceptable to your customers (internal, external, etc) and have management that is not afraid to call people out.

 

[CorbLand]

I hear you, I work remote for a large utility in another state and can say that not everyone works as hard as some. However I personally work longer hours at home than I did in the office. I dont have to commute each way, and during lunch I can mow my yard, run, or generally do something productive. On mondays I will fish for a few hours in the morning for spring chinook as I am on calls listening and providing updates but not presenting. What a better way to attend a meeting than in a boat (or duck hunting during October (full disclosure my boss knows that I do this, I dont hide it and is good with it).

My division manager is having select individuals start working hybrid due to their perceived work ethic.

My opinion; working from home is great, however its only great if you are working to a level that is acceptable to your customers (internal, external, etc) and have management that is not afraid to call people out.

My favorite part of working from home was the ability to take care of little things through out the day. Loading the dishwasher, switching laundry over, cooking a good lunch, etc.

 

[cuerro viejo]

I work in a leading indicator industry (staffing) that is usually first to see a recession coming. Seems like many companies here in the Portland, OR market is slowing down on hiring and making cuts to staff. The IT sector seems to have been hit the hardest.

Are others around the country seeing the same thing? What are you experiencing locally?

its about to get really bad RHI, ASGN, MAN all taking huge earnings hits and down grading 2 and 3 QTR numbers

 

[Q child]

The economy in Southeast AK is humming right along. I work in construction, and we're really busy. Also hiring people.

 

[Meshnasty]

There is still a ton of money coming down from IRA for that type of stuff (I used to work for NRCS) and will be for several more years. My bet is when the IRA $$$ dries up in the 2026-2027 time frame is when butts are really going to pucker. There is so much construction related to that bill on the books for the next 4-5 yrs nothing can really crash hard.

The IRA highly influenced my work as well. However, many projects seem to be loosing commercial traction.

I’m interested to see how it plays out.

 

[cjdewese]

A lot of really good points on the work from home aspect of things. I've been work from home since March of 2020 and I have very mixed feelings on it.

I love that I get to see my kid every day and watch how great my wife is with him. I wouldn't trade that aspect of it for the world and is something that no matter what happens moving forward I will look back on fondly.

I started working for a startup as employee #2 14 years ago and busted ass for the 1st 10 years building that business with my boss and our team. We worked hard together and built a business that supported all of our growth from getting married, to buying our 1st home to having our 1st kids. We all had the same goal in mind, we did really well and eventually sold to a larger company based out of India trying to build a North American presense and used the people in our company to help with that process. 2 years into that we all got sent home for covid and the management there has been terrible since. I still work from home and don't get much interaction or comradare with my co-workers which sucks.

I think with the team we had in the 1st scenario we could have easily worked from home and accomplished a lot of the same things. I do think there is value in having human interaction and think that it helps with creativity to a certain extent.

I can see both sides and ultimately I think it's up to the employer to choose how they want to run their business and it's up to the employee to choose if they are ok with that choice.

 

[cusecat04]

My favorite part of working from home was the ability to take care of little things through out the day. Loading the dishwasher, switching laundry over, cooking a good lunch, etc.

This right here is a big one for us.
My wife and I are able to work a Hybrid schedule of a few days ITO and a few WFH. Changes based on current tasking.
If you need to be in you are in.
Allows many mundane things to be checked off the list instead of sitting in traffic.

Someone commented on it only works if managed well. This is so key.
The same guys taking 2 hr coffee breaks and bs'ing throughout the day don't just turn into grinders at home. They f off as much or more...
The grinders usually burn even longer and need to be metered back.
That falls into the joys of managing people, everyone is different and needs different direction to be effective.
The thing that is lost in a full WFH is the organic brainstorming that can occur. I work in tech and some of the best ideas/solutions come from folks running into each other and spitballing about it. Also is one of the key ways to grow your young talent. Very difficult to do full remote.

 

[silasbowhunter]

My favorite part of working from home was the ability to take care of little things through out the day. Loading the dishwasher, switching laundry over, cooking a good lunch, etc.

I enjoy not having to deal with the mindless office banter that goes on all day and slows down my production along with the stuff you stated.


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[HuntHarder]

No, sure wish it would start already. I am ready to buy, buy buy.

 

[Beendare]

Real estate wise we had a a similar scenario to the folks with low interest rates resistant to moving here in CA decades ago; prop 17. It locked your property taxes in at a low rate. Not as drastic as a low mortgage payment…but a disincentive to move.
My bet is it will take a few years for this to work its way out of the system.

Inflation wise; there is no quick cure and my wild ass guess is we will see Stagflation for as long as a decade. The current admin not only injected an extra $2 trillion into the economy in restrained conditions…but they are resisting the Reps attempts to hold the line to a one percent increase in spending.

Its going to take awhile for this to work itself out. There will be sectors that still flourish…but this bowhunter/backpacker/ expert economist (not!) thinks the broad economy will be a long grind.

Its more important than ever to be smart with your $$$.

 

[MattB]

For companies that hire well, WFH can be a big benefit. You eliminate the non-productive commute hours and potentially some real estate costs, as well as having happier workers.

Companies that have reduced productivity under WFH only do so because they have hired the wrong people. Some people are lazy and some seemingly live by the mantra “work harder, not smarter” and go into the office for no good reason. Martyr complex?

During COVID WFH we found productivity on my team generally improved simply because people weren’t spending 2-3 hours commuting and they used that time working. The lazy people were still lazy, but they weren’t floating around the office interrupting the productive. That also gave management more ammo to release them for cause if they chose to.

 

[Ferrulewax]

No, sure wish it would start already. I am ready to buy, buy buy.

The issue is that this is a common mindset right now, which makes me think that at least the real estate market may not change as much as I hope.

 

[Rich M]

7% mortgages are going to sting.

Not sure how long you been doing this. 7% isn't really all that bad.

I bought a house in about 2000 w 8% mortgage...refinanced it down to about 3.5%. Been waiting for the rates to go back up where they need to be - the low interest rates were to incentivize folks to buy stuff.

The unintended affect of the low rate is that the real estate value went up to compensate for the amount of money people had. A $1K/month mortgage at 8% is say 250K, a $1K/month mortgage at 3% is say 500K - the problem was that "they" made a 250K property to be worth 500K and now that the interest rates are going up, the value of the property has to come down so that folks can afford it... Should be interesting to watch this play out.

Recession - no. Govt screwing things up - as always, YES.