Recession Coming?

[Stache Attack]

I work for a company that does a lot of construction work for tech companies...Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc. Word from all of them has been that WFH is less productive. If it wasn't, we'd be out of a lot of work. Those companies have paused new construction for a couple years now but are starting projects back up. Lots of factors as to why those companies might prefer in-office attendance other than productivity metrics but that's what they tell us before paying us millions for a new office reno.

I'm sure a lot of people are just as productive or more productive, but it's possible the scale tips the other direction.

Weird I have in law family 2 of the 4 work for google remote. Have since the early 2000s. Figured a senior guy wouldn’t be allowed to be remote if it wasn’t productive. Possibly he falls into the productive side. He sure can’t work outside

 

[wnelson14]

Our company sent all non-essential employees to "work" from home during covid. What our company seen was a huge drop in productivity. Basically, people working a couple hrs a day and screwing around the rest. It also creates a lot of animosity with people who actually have to come to work. Nothing like someone sending you a message while they are still in their PJ's to go look at something they should be doing. When covid first hit and I actually believed it was dangerous I felt like my life was not as important as theirs. I would be more ok with it if the company cut all of their pay maybe 20% and gave a decent portion of the to the essential workers.

I think a balance for everyone is the key, I travel to different areas for my team, have an office in one area and work remote 1-2 days a week. I can get more work done in two hours alone at home then I can going to my main office and not be interrupted. So I would argue in my case productivity is opposite.

 

[dreamingbig]

Wait... haven't we been in a recession for two years?

No.


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[Yoder]

No.


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We avoided it officially. We brilliantly gave billions of dollars to Ukraine. Ukraine took those billions and bought weapons from us boosting our economic numbers and lining the pockets of all of our corrupt politicians on both sides.

 

[Yoder]

wife works from home and loves it, nice because any town to work out of and make good money.

Many studies I have seen show productivity increase and over head decrease. She has to log on at a certain time and off at a set time which the system also tracks activity, besides Monday which is a desk day. I notice she is busier than when she was in office, not on the cell phone as much, pry 90% productive.

I’d be interested what metrics your company used to base that claim on. I think a lot about lower expenses, no water cooler talk and no more gossip.

I see at my job we have doers and lazy piles. Don’t think that changes at any level of employment. I was/am? Essential as I’m in agriculture never was sent home. I didn’t feel endangered, but did get a raise when people went home with out Covid tests. I stayed and made the place some big coin.

If it was working so well, why did Amazon and Tesla make employees come back to work? One thing that was amazing, people were COMPLAINING! Working from home and complaining about their work life balance. How they were expected to answer calls and attend virtual meetings after 5pm. They were salary and at home. I would have fired every person that bitched about it. I understand this saves money and works for some industries but not all.

 

[timekiller13]

Things are slowing down, but there is no sign of recession my area.

Houses take 3-4 weeks to sell instead of 3-4 days. But they are still selling for absurd prices.

My wife is a VP at a pretty large company that sells irrigation equipment, well and septic equipment. Their sales are still breaking records every quarter.

 

[CorbLand]

If it was working so well, why did Amazon and Tesla make employees come back to work? One thing that was amazing, people were COMPLAINING! Working from home and complaining about their work life balance. How they were expected to answer calls and attend virtual meetings after 5pm. They were salary and at home. I would have fired every person that bitched about it. I understand this saves money and works for some industries but not all.

You would have fired your employees because they have lives outside of work?

With a boss like that, you won’t have to do much firing, your employees will do it for you.

 

[Coopsdaddy]

Everything high,can’t get decent deal on a vehicle if you try,i say we are far from a recession.

 

[Flyjunky]

Can you provide a link to that announcement? I can't find it. I might be searching for the wrong thing, though.

I have a client who was told the same thing by a regional guy at Ford. My client had bought a new 250 platinum diesel, close to $90000. It was in to the dealer 2 times in the first 3 months. One time the breakdown left him stranded in the backcountry on a bear hunt.

Long story short, through many phone calls he was told that the 10 speed transmission was having some problems and Ford was hemorrhaging money. It’s interesting that he told me the $2 billion number, the same number that was mentioned in this thread.

Also heard today that Ford is pulling out of a couple market segments and trying to implement a single price policy.

 

[mtnbiker208]

the best barometer i have came accross for wondering if we are in a recession is this:
If the trades call you back, we are in a recession. IF they don't call you back, we are not in a recession.

We are definatley not in a recession.

 

[thegrouse]

Two house within 2 blocks from me listed last Thursday. As of yesterday they were both under contract.

 

[Bluefish]

Two house within 2 blocks from me listed last Thursday. As of yesterday they were both under contract.

Really depends on the area. There are 4 for sale within 1/2 mile and 2 on my block. 3 of the 4 have been for sale since fall. The 4th has been listed for 1-2 months. Price range from $370-$900.

 

[ddd-shooter]

the best barometer i have came accross for wondering if we are in a recession is this:
If the trades call you back, we are in a recession. IF they don't call you back, we are not in a recession.

We are definatley not in a recession.

As a GC, I agree! Gonna steal this one!

 

[Idaboy]

Unfortunately, recessions are part of the economic cycle....free money from 2009-2022, only a matter of time that something happens.....I vividly remember times when prior loans at 8-9% back in the day. If you someone they were gonna have a 8% mortgage or car loan 3 yrs ago they would think you were from another planet....There still is tons of demand out there as others havd pointed out, but odds are some sort of recession in next 6-18 months, hopefully without stagflation, or worse, depression.

 

[S.Clancy]

My wife is a VP at a pretty large company that sells irrigation equipment, well and septic equipment. Their sales are still breaking records every quarter.

There is still a ton of money coming down from IRA for that type of stuff (I used to work for NRCS) and will be for several more years. My bet is when the IRA $$$ dries up in the 2026-2027 time frame is when butts are really going to pucker. There is so much construction related to that bill on the books for the next 4-5 yrs nothing can really crash hard.

 

[Mish-pop]

Unfortunately, recessions are part of the economic cycle....free money from 2009-2022, only a matter of time that something happens.....I vividly remember times when prior loans at 8-9% back in the day. If you someone they were gonna have a 8% mortgage or car loan 3 yrs ago they would think you were from another planet....There still is tons of demand out there as others havd pointed out, but odds are some sort of recession in next 6-18 months, hopefully without stagflation, or worse, depression.

I agree. It's all a cycle. A close family member is a financial advisor and they look at historical trends and its fairly consistent with ebb and flow of bull and bear markets over time. I trust their advice and in down years It's often best time to invest because prices are cheaper. But I'm younger with good job security so it luckily doesn't affect me much. Also, where I live usually has strong economy

 

[Yoder]

You would have fired your employees because they have lives outside of work?

With a boss like that, you won’t have to do much firing, your employees will do it for you.

I would have fired people who complained about working from home. Most people would love to be able to work from home. I commute over an hour to get to work. The amount of entitlement is amazing to me.

 

[CJohnson]

I don't have any animosity about people who WFH. I just think it's funny that they expect the same wages as someone who doesn't WFH, even though they get all of the aforementioned benefits.

 

[chanson_roland]

Really depends on industry. If you have anything to do with AI, you're doing ok (see NVDA's earnings beat by 19% yesterday).

Rename this website to Rokslide.ai and it's worth $1B overnight....

 

[wnelson14]

I would have fired people who complained about working from home. Most people would love to be able to work from home. I commute over an hour to get to work. The amount of entitlement is amazing to me.

That’s a big waste of an hour that could be spent working from home and being productive.