Odds of a NR harvesting elk on public land stats.....

[DWBMontana]

Curious if anyone has seen data for this ? You would think states would be able to put together some sort of data for this, but perhaps, there is a reason they do not. I am guessing 12% of the NR hunters who hunt exclusively public lands without a guide or outfitter harvest an elk, cow or bull. Anyone else care to guess ?

 

[BuzzH]

Depends on the hunter, state, LE or OTC tag, bull tag, cow tag, etc.

Too many variables to predict.

 

[wbmc6565]

Following because this will be my first year in Montana.

 

[BuzzH]

Following because this will be my first year in Montana.

I would say the NR odds of killing a bull elk on public land in a general unit, in Montana, on a week-long hunt with good conditions are less than 10%. Killing a cow may be a bit higher, if the area you hunt even allows cow elk hunting.

I killed my first elk in Montana in 1980 and have shot 32 since then in Montana...I quit buying Montana NRN general elk tags about 5 years ago (last one in 2014). The elk hunting on public land in Montana is dismal compared to even 15 years ago.

 

[ElkNut1]

BuzzH, makes a very good point! Many hunters feel when they see the phrase Public Land that it also implies OTC! Not true! Two different things!

My guess for the thread starter would be more in line of 2%-3% success. No way near 12%. Not even general OTC public land hunts with newer hunters & veteran hunters equal 12% as a whole!
I'm referring to an archery elk hunt.

ElkNut/Paul

 

[jaweav12]

I would guess it’s lower like 5% at most but just a guess.


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[87TT]

I would think that the 2 to 3% would be pretty close or maybe even a little optimistic. I guess maybe if you have a good knowledge of the area or are a very experienced elk hunter the odds maybe a little better. If you look just at the overall success rates and figure there is a certain % of elk taken by a few of the same hunters every year.

 

[idahohikker]

Wyoming publishes these stats. Some areas are easier or harder for a nonresident to dial.

 

[Car7x]

I'm a long time NR landowner in MT. Which, probably thanks to the TV guys, has become a harder draw, but since my cabin and network is there, still my favorite place. For where I hunt, the stats are pretty positive, but I have not seen a split out exactly along these lines. However, for what it's worth, the last time I bothered to look my areas were running just under a 20% success rate. Here's the FWP website harvest statistics legend:

Legend:
Residency: Montana resident or non-resident (SUM = both residents and non-residents).
Hunters: Estimate of how many people of this residency hunted in this area.
Days: Estimate of the number of days spent hunting in a particular area by hunters in a particular area.
Days per Hunter: Estimate of the number of days spent hunting per hunter in a particular area for a particular residency.
Total Harvest: Estimate of the number of animals harvested by a particular residency.

Numbers where my cabin is - virtually all elk habitat up from the river valley is public land - are 324 NR harvested 57 Elk in 2016, 2017 is not split out for residency for some reason. 762 Res hunters got 111 critters, so while NR did noticeably better, close to the same math.

Numbers are further split out for weapon, elk gender and size of bull (>/< 6 points). Interesting that all 111 Res elk that year were rifle! As an archer first and foremost, I like that. Got ours last year with rifle, though.

What I see afield is that the hunters hiring guides in my neighborhood are all on private with dramatically higher 'success' ratios. For me, 'success' is just a great trip, of course. I suppose some states feature guided public, but I think the guys hiring professionals want the privacy.

You may be able to extrapolate from the above that if you look at an area and figure most the private is road accessible and/or 'flat' land - allowing for mines and timber operations, big ranches, etc. - perhaps that will let you draw a tighter bead on some of these questions. Poke around on your state's website and give them a call.

 

[squirrel]

If they (CO) published the NR public land bull elk OTC DIY hunter success numbers nobody would pony up the money to fund their new trucks, so why do that? This is where the bulk of the income is produced and virtually none of the elk killed.

The historical success average of around 17-20% is hammered home for a reason, so every group of 4-5 guys around a kitchen table back east figures "we should get one"!!! We will split the meat and lie to our wives about how much we spent, it will all be OK...

A large number of those hunters never even cut a track on their 4-6 days of adventure. especially on their first trip.

 

[BuzzH]

Montana's harvest stats, population estimates and hunter numbers are a complete joke. I would trust the numbers in a fortune cookie more than the numbers they fabricate.

 

[cnelk]

Montana's harvest stats, population estimates and hunter numbers are a complete joke. I would trust the numbers in a fortune cookie more than the numbers they fabricate.

Same with Colorado's

 

[Nickofthewoods]

No experience in Montana here, only OTC in Colorado of which I am a resident. So take this for what it's worth or however it may apply to the original question.

It took me 9 years to get my first OTC bull. Of the unsuccessful years I got close twice where i was seconds away from shot opportunity. I hunt pretty hard, always been in good shape but I am certainly nowhere close to expert status if that exists. Now that i have all of those unsuccessful years behind me I have been fairly consistent and at least have opportunity year in and year out. OTC is tough, but rewarding.

 

[Newtosavage]

No experience in Montana here, only OTC in Colorado of which I am a resident. So take this for what it's worth or however it may apply to the original question.

It took me 9 years to get my first OTC bull. Of the unsuccessful years I got close twice where i was seconds away from shot opportunity. I hunt pretty hard, always been in good shape but I am certainly nowhere close to expert status if that exists. Now that i have all of those unsuccessful years behind me I have been fairly consistent and at least have opportunity year in and year out. OTC is tough, but rewarding.

That's encouraging. Only 5 more years to go. LOL

If having elk in your sights that you don't have a tag for counts, I've "killed" about 7 now. LOL

I agree that it wouldn't be productive for a state to publish accurate NR DIY public land harvest stats. I can't imagine they would be above 10%

 

[Fridaythe13th]

I'm sure its pretty low, we have a group of 6 people that hunted elk only for 5 years, we are as a group 3 for 30. 2 bulls and 1 cow. Archery only.

Rifle: 6 people, 4 years, 8 elk, 7 cows 1 bull. But that was in the mid 2000.
That's my nonresident stats

 

[Nickofthewoods]

That's encouraging. Only 5 more years to go. LOL

If having elk in your sights that you don't have a tag for counts, I've "killed" about 7 now. LOL

I agree that it wouldn't be productive for a state to publish accurate NR DIY public land harvest stats. I can't imagine they would be above 10%

I think it was year 7 or missed opportunity #2 that I really started to question my own personal statistics.

 

[Billy Goat]

I just looked up the success rate for where I hunt. Archery is running 10% success rate. That's combined resident and non resident. This is an otc area of Colorado.

I believe for a first time out on public, success rate is less than 5%. I could believe more like 2%. I know a few guys who have killed in their first year out but they had some help. Going with a group that was familiar with the area, hunting areas others put them in.

 

[ElkNut1]

The lower 2% to 5% for NR are for the newer elk hunters. As ones gain experience that % will no doubt rise as guys gain more experience & knowledge of their hunting area & quarry. If guys just want to kill an elk no matter what style used they can raise their % much quicker by hunting elk out of Treestands over travel routes & destination spots, don't get caught up in the youtube calling hype, leave it for the more experienced guys until you've elk hunted long enough to gain confidence as a caller of elk.

Hunting out of a Treestand doesn't offer the same glamour as calling in rutting bulls but it can get the job done for sure. It's all about Location, Location when setting a stand, of course wind direction is a huge factor as well. Want to raise your odds, consider this tactic!

ElkNut/Paul

 

[Salmonchaser]

It’s easy to pick on fish and game guys, I do it often my self. Universally, having hunted elk and deer in six states I hear the numbers are a joke. I rarely read what’s wrong with the numbers, other than too many hunters too little game.
From my personal experience I think the hunter success numbers are pretty close in Oregon but that’s based on only two units I’m very familiar with. The unit I hunted in Colorado had very low numbers, 11% yet we were 3/5 on six points, Last year. Wilderness area, unguided but it was a drop camp.
What I’ve learned is there is a significant error in reporting data. Quite simply an awful lot of guys report success when in fact they did not tag an animal. Makes it tough to come up with good data, garbage in, garbage out kinda thing.

 

[5MilesBack]

I once read that it takes the average bowhunter 7 years to make their first elk kill, but that didn't delineate between residents and NR's. The success rates seem to hover around 10% for archery for both combined. As stated, I'm sure that goes up or down depending on the experience level. But I've known quite a few first timers that shot an elk their first year.