Odds of a NR harvesting elk on public land stats.....

[Bulldawg]

The only way for things as Telecheck to be accurate is for ALL hunters to be honest in their reports! Good luck with that!

It's common practice for hunters to mention false units when filling our a Report Card as Idaho has. Other states may use a different phrase but in the end most hunters are not truthful! Why? Because they do not want other hunters to know the units they are hunting. Many will report no elk taken when in fact they did! This is why I put zero stock in stats as hunter numbers, elk taken, etc. -- I choose areas that appeal to my hunting style not what I read in the regs or what a biologist would tell me. Most stats are obscured at best & do not reveal accurate info.

So to expect accurate percentages as the thread starter asked about NR success rates is basically unrealistic. BuzzH was trying to assist you in this very info & why such info even if it did exist that it could still be misleading!

ElkNut/Paul

This is why I would like to see mandatory game check in and unit specific tags. All animals require a tag that has to be put on by the game check in folks. Will some folks cheat and lie, yeah they will. But better data would be gathered for sure.


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[ElkNut1]

Here's the problem with that phrase that lies within! New hunters & many veterans of the game do not properly prepare or focus on what the important factors are to becoming successful. Look at the actual success rate stats, for bowhunters it's generally less than 10% across the board for a bull or cow on OTC Public Land hunts with archery gear, rifle hunters experience a bit better odds but not a lot! This holds true for all units where draws are not part of the equation!

What this shows is either hunters aren't nearly lucky enough or they need to re-adjust their thinking as to what's needed to be consistently successful. This is where that 90% fail!

ElkNut/Paul

 

[nphunter]

Here's the problem with that phrase that lies within! New hunters & many veterans of the game do not properly prepare or focus on what the important factors are to becoming successful. Look at the actual success rate stats, for bowhunters it's generally less than 10% across the board for a bull or cow on OTC Public Land hunts with archery gear, rifle hunters experience a bit better odds but not a lot! This holds true for all units where draws are not part of the equation!

What this shows is either hunters aren't nearly lucky enough or they need to re-adjust their thinking as to what's needed to be consistently successful. This is where that 90% fail!

ElkNut/Paul

I agree totally, success has nothing to do with where you are from but more as to how well you know what you are doing or put into the hunt. I personally don't gauge success on whether or not I kill an elk, to me a successful hunt is one where I am interacting with elk most days and get a chance to try to outwit them. The bull in my profile picture was coming into that area every day or two for most of the season. I knew that before the season and hung a stand there, I never sat that stand one time. The bull I killed was probably 100" smaller but I was able to chase him down call him into 10 feet in the bottom of a nasty drainage and have a face to face stare off with him for 5 minutes before he finally walked around me and I was able to kill him at 25 yards. Even if i would have not have gotten a shot i would consider that a successful hunt.

I am 100% confident that I could sit in a tree stand on any water hole with elk sign around it for 5 days straight and kill a bull every year. I know because I run a pile of trail cameras on them and get pictures all season long. If a persons measure of success by the number of animals they kill they are best suited sitting in a tree over a highly used trail or on water. I don't think i've ever had a well-placed camera go more than 3 or 4 days without getting an elk pictures.

 

[trophyhill]

I would consider my chances as a non res in any state on heavily pressured OTC above average. Those who don't feel that way have already put their first hurdle to overcome, in front of themselves.

 

[nphunter]

I would consider my chances as a non res in any state on heavily pressured OTC above average. Those who don't feel that way have already put their first hurdle to overcome, in front of themselves.

I feel the same way. When I’m going out of state I’m already thinking of how I’m going to do the packing and where I’m going to put another rack

 

[jackmu]

NM posts this data and draw odds on their website. You can see odds and harvest percentage for every hunt

 

[mavinwa2]

4 for 4 on bull elk, all public land, as non resident in 4 states (CO, AZ, NM, OR)

past 8 years, my biggest issue is drawing a non res tag!
been 14yrs AZ and 9yrs NM since the last hunts!!

 

[Salmonchaser]

I agree totally, success has nothing to do with where you are from but more as to how well you know what you are doing or put into the hunt. I personally don't gauge success on whether or not I kill an elk, to me a successful hunt is one where I am interacting with elk most days and get a chance to try to outwit them. The bull in my profile picture was coming into that area every day or two for most of the season. I knew that before the season and hung a stand there, I never sat that stand one time. The bull I killed was probably 100" smaller but I was able to chase him down call him into 10 feet in the bottom of a nasty drainage and have a face to face stare off with him for 5 minutes before he finally walked around me and I was able to kill him at 25 yards. Even if i would have not have gotten a shot i would consider that a successful hunt.

I am 100% confident that I could sit in a tree stand on any water hole with elk sign around it for 5 days straight and kill a bull every year. I know because I run a pile of trail cameras on them and get pictures all season long. If a persons measure of success by the number of animals they kill they are best suited sitting in a tree over a highly used trail or on water. I don't think i've ever had a well-placed camera go more than 3 or 4 days without getting an elk pictures.

A very good point, particularly in low pressure units. The ranch I guided on we hunted from time proven stands, rocky points not tree stands. Never pushed the canyons. Never took more than three days.
One of my Brother in Laws owns a ranch in the Paradise Valley. Same thing, never go after the elk just sit and wait. Often times his elk might scatter a short distance at the shot but we would wait until they moved on before collecting or elk.

 

[Scoot]

I would consider my chances as a non res in any state on heavily pressured OTC above average. Those who don't feel that way have already put their first hurdle to overcome, in front of themselves.

Totally agree! My buddy and I feel 100% confident we're going to punch our tags on every hunt we go on. I'm pretty much crushed when I don't! Ironically, I don't feel like punching my tag is the most important part of a hunt- it's about experience and time with my buddy on the mountain. But... punching my tag and providing meat for my family is important too! Plus, I'm always hoping for a good rack to bring home, but my standards drop pretty quickly as a hunt progresses and I end up wanting to bring home meat. Having low standards is what has filled my freezer many times! LOL

 

[blackdawg]

Those nonresident odds will never be calculated or published separate from the overall success rates. The western game and fish departments have figured out that there is a sucker born Back East everyday and the majority of their budgets come from selling dreams of six point bulls dancing in the suckers heads. Sure, a few hardcore fellas will get it done and a blind hog finds an acorn also.For example, in my little town in Tennessee, we have a good number of guys that go west to hunt. I know of 7 elk killed in the last 5 years, about 100 tags purchased and only 2 of those were killed on public general areas. 4 were killed on private and one on a landowner tag with outfitter, on the second 17k trip, 4 raghorn bulls and 3 cows,,ouch. Break it down and around $50,000 dollars in tags sold, not counting the money spent in lodging, food, fuel, etc. ,, only fools would cut their throats and reveal the real truths! Most of these guys hammer whitetails and turkeys, watch too much t.v. , buy into the excellent marketing and realize the trips are affordable. I personally would bet the odds are less than 3% success across the board for non-residents in general units in all western states. I also would bet the odds of killing a six point bull are less than 1/1000. I also would bet that report never occurs because the fallout might be severe if the reality was known how poor the odds are just to whack a raghorn.


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[Scoot]

Blackdawg, I think your take home point is spot on. The odds of a six point bull being 1/1000-- I definitely don't think that's accurate. Your point is right for sure though. Everyone has visions of 350"+ bulls in their head, and the G&Fs have done a good job of planting those visions, but the reality is much more along the lines of tag soup, a cow, or a small bull.

 

[DWBMontana]

Stick to the OP...like I did.

Here are the ouija board produced numbers you cant seem to find for Montana:

FWP :: Harvest Estimates

Tell me again how they make sense, how they come up with the numbers, etc. Not to mention that nowhere in the data is there a way to tease out how many elk are killed on public VS private land.

Once you do that compare the observed elk counts by district VS the population estimates and bull to cow ratio's. See if those make sense. Once you figure out just how far out in the weeds the data is, like most anyone else that can read the most obvious of sign, let me know how a NR or R is supposed to figure out anything close to actual success rates, population estimates etc. Then combine that with oh...I don't know, 80 or so combined years of hunting experience between my Grandfather, Father, Brother and I. Experience documented in well kept hunting journals for over 40 years and also knowledge gained from hunting with and knowing some of the best elk hunters in Montana.

Look for yourself, get back to me on how good the only available data is for the unfortunate NR hunters who believe the "data" provided when trying to figure out if spending a grand on an elk tag in Montana is a good investment or not.

They're screwed before they even submit their application....and lied to by the Department their license dollars fund.
[/QUOTE
You seem to think you ar

Stick to the OP...like I did.

Here are the ouija board produced numbers you cant seem to find for Montana:

FWP :: Harvest Estimates

Tell me again how they make sense, how they come up with the numbers, etc. Not to mention that nowhere in the data is there a way to tease out how many elk are killed on public VS private land.

Once you do that compare the observed elk counts by district VS the population estimates and bull to cow ratio's. See if those make sense. Once you figure out just how far out in the weeds the data is, like most anyone else that can read the most obvious of sign, let me know how a NR or R is supposed to figure out anything close to actual success rates, population estimates etc. Then combine that with oh...I don't know, 80 or so combined years of hunting experience between my Grandfather, Father, Brother and I. Experience documented in well kept hunting journals for over 40 years and also knowledge gained from hunting with and knowing some of the best elk hunters in Montana.

Look for yourself, get back to me on how good the only available data is for the unfortunate NR hunters who believe the "data" provided when trying to figure out if spending a grand on an elk tag in Montana is a good investment or not.

They're screwed before they even submit their application....and lied to by the Department their license dollars fund.
[/QUOTE
Buzz, you confuse personal opinion with FACTS. Reading some of your musings on this forum, along with other forums, no surprise.....again.

 

[HunterJoeMI]

Wow after reading this thread I feel pretty good about myself and my public land DIY hunting!

 

[Shrek]

First year success is very low. You’ll hike by elk , blow elk out , you’ll set up poorly and get busted , you don’t know where to be looking , and plain bad luck. Time in the field will steadily raise your odds. Luck is when skill meets opportunity. Put in the hard work before and during the hunt and enjoy the process. The three keys to success is persistence , persistence , and persistence ! All cleche’ but true. I’m intending to hunt elk for the sixth time this fall and I’d give myself a one in three chance of cutting my tags. Maybe less due to health reasons. I do know I’ll have more fun elk hunting than I will deer hunting locally where I have had 100% success for decades.

 

[Newtosavage]

I do know I’ll have more fun elk hunting than I will deer hunting locally where I have had 100% success for decades.

Amen to that.

 

[stagliano]

NR elk hunter here. I have hunted Montana twice and taken one elk. Therefore, the success rate for NR elk hunters in MT is 50%.

 

[Newtosavage]

NR elk hunter here. I have hunted Montana twice and taken one elk. Therefore, the success rate for NR elk hunters in MT is 50%.

I've hunted CO 4 years and haven't punched a tag yet (only because I had the wrong tag in my pocket about 7 times now...stupid cow tags) so that's 0%. I take my buddy and he tags a 6x6 on his 1st day of elk hunting of his life (100%). So between us we're at 20% LOL

 

[DWBMontana]

Hmmm. But Buzz knows.

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