Odds of a NR harvesting elk on public land stats.....

[cnelk]

Also factor in the fact that survey participants may not be truthful...

 

[njdoxie]

My guess would be in the low single digits - elk hunting is tough, and mostly the same tough sob’s getting it done every year.


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[LWC]

I'd wag in the 2-5% range for NR DIY archery hunters and 5-10% for rifle. And you might want to pay attention when Buzz posts about MT and WY. He has a little knowledge of those states and even some others....but especially MT and WY.

 

[squirrel]

As cnelk points out he overall success rates per unit reflect private pay-to-play either sex hayfield ranch hunts that are pretty much 100% from the truck window so there are boat loads of mountain top otc bull hunters with nothing hanging to drag that down to the quoted level, which is in turn largely fictitious propaganda.

The least believable number is the one most readily used, quoted, and relied upon, the CPW success rate.

They do, however, successfully cash each and every check... 100% success year in year out, very reliably.

Low single digits, perhaps fractions thereof would be my guess, and those by the same few percent of hunters year to year.

I wish they would spend some spare helicopter money on finding out, it would make for some interesting reading if it was done right

 

[dr.mooseknuckles]

I have no experience or knowledge outside of my one time elk hunting. In 2018 as a NR, I drew a First Rifle, Limited Entry tag in an OTC Unit in NW Colorado, about 2 hours outside of Denver. My buddy and I studied our tails off. I worked my tail off in the gym and trails with my pack.

Got to our unit 2 days early. Found a nice 6x6 that first afternoon, along with a couple of very nice bucks. Once the season started, I put my crosshairs on a 5x5 (didn't know what was on its head till it started running into cover) and 2 days later killed a 5x6. Saw lots of guys bee-bopping around, having themselves a beautiful, but super cold walk in Creation.

We cut fresh tracks everyday and saw elk everyday.

All of this goes to say that those who want "it", generally will work to get "it". Doesn't matter what "it" is. I think this goes back to the 90/10 rule above. I wasn't an elk hunting fool (now it's all I think about), I just worked hard to learn, got myself in the best shape possible (which probably wasn't enough), and took time to pay attention to detail. Tracks in the snow didn't hurt either.

I would tell anyone looking to give it a try to 1.) either plan on having a nice trip with wonderful scenery and no luck, or 2.) Plan on putting yourself through some real misery with a chance of being successful or 3.) Get a guide if you're lazy

My two cents.

 

[Fatcamp]

Also factor in the fact that survey participants may not be truthful...

I asked a South Dakota GFP individual about this in regard to non-resident archery harvest that showed some really odd trends. His opinion is that people would have no reason to lie. Gritty Bowmen guest that same week was very clear on he will never self report a harvest because it only draws attention to units. Hmmmmm ......

 

[brsnow]

Depends on the hunter, most probably under 5% select few probably 80% or better.

 

[dr.mooseknuckles]

^^^^
Fatcamp makes a great point, which makes me SOOOO angry. Falsifying survey information truly helps no one. Doesn't help the person looking to plan a hunt, doesn't help the wildlife managers, and it doesn't help the wildlife.

I'm all for keeping your spots secret. Hell, I have an attorney friend that I took deer hunting on Public land here in SC, Showed him a couple of other spots that I had scouted if he ever wanted to try them when I couldn't go. Low and behold, I find out later that he not only continued to hunt the spots that I showed him but he also took a couple other guys each time he went. I was furious, but it's public land.

That being said, data is needed to manage wildlife. So please, don't do that crap. You're not helping anyone.

 

[Usi05]

Solid info in here for a first time NR Hunter...

Doing everything I can to prepare and be in that small %. The info from you more experienced folks is amazing!


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[cnelk]

Remember - No matter if you're a NR , Res, newbie or experienced - Luck favors preparation.

 

[Ross]

Odds at being successful the first time out in most ventures suck, but some lucky dogs are gonna pose with something to be proud of. Half the fun is the planning and the work to achieve success then to continuously repeat it over and over....I’ve met many afield who failed and gave up and others who who took the challenge and some succeeded....put in the time and work and the percentages don’t mean anything it is then about crunch time.....4 months but who is counting

 

[a_noob_hunter]

How many opportunities in that 5% success rate? I hunted muleys in Idaho last year and the success rates were about 30% (archery). I had an opportunity about every day (once we found the deer), but being my first time hunting out west I ate my tag. Safe to expect and opportunity for elk once a week or how often?

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[5MilesBack]

Safe to expect and opportunity for elk once a week or how often?

What do you consider "an opportunity"? On some OTC hunts I've gone 10+ days without a shot opportunity, but was on elk almost every day. The trials of hunting solo in thick timber. It also depends on what your goal is. If your goal is any elk, I fully believe that a couple guys should be able to get on elk every day if you know what you're doing. If you don't know what you're doing, then you could probably go seasons without seeing an elk.

 

[a_noob_hunter]

What do you consider "an opportunity"? On some OTC hunts I've gone 10+ days without a shot opportunity, but was on elk almost every day. The trials of hunting solo in thick timber. It also depends on what your goal is. If your goal is any elk, I fully believe that a couple guys should be able to get on elk every day if you know what you're doing. If you don't know what you're doing, then you could probably go seasons without seeing an elk.

I consider an opportunity when I have the chance at making a shot happen. So when we were deer hunting it was putting a stalk on a buck. Only a few times did I get a shot opportunity but everyday I had a chance to make a chance to have a shot. Just most of the time I blew the stalk. On a separate note what's the hardest part of killing an elk for a first time nr hunter? Is it finding the elk or outsmarting them?

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[5MilesBack]

On a separate note what's the hardest part of killing an elk for a first time nr hunter? Is it finding the elk or outsmarting them?

I've heard a lot of people say that "killing elk is easy........finding them is the hard part". But I completely disagree. I've never had any issues finding elk, but for bowhunting......everything has to come together to get that shot opportunity and be able to execute it. And a lot of those things don't necessarily even involve the elk. The swirling wind will kill more opportunities than you can count. The thick timber will give you small windows and only glimpses of elk parts. Branches, twigs, and whatever else will shut down a shot opportunity quickly. They have an uncanny ability of stopping right in the wrong spot. The dry drought ridden ground will sound like you're walking on potato chips. In 2017 I only got to hunt 2.5 days after taking my daughter on her ML hunt (different unit), and was within 50 yards of four different 6x6 bulls on different encounters, and never got a shot opportunity. Some of those things are easier to overcome with a partner that knows what he's doing. He can "guide" or pull the elk in front of the shooter.

 

[cnelk]

Here's a quick 'recap' of me and my buddy [NR] for his week long hunt back in 2013

Never give up

 

[elkyinzer]

I would argue nonres % are probably higher.

There is a subset of each killing elk at a 50% or better clip, probably cancel each other out.

Sheer statistics, you have a lot more resident weekend hunters. Many of them seem to be the ones just out for a nice weekend campout and ATV ride, the guys that don't leave the trail. At least that's my observation in a couple different states in archery, never been out in rifle season.

The hapless nonres exist but most don't stick around too long once they realize how difficult it is. They are usually trying, but just physically can't take the mountains, or saw one too many Stika instagrams and have no clue how to actually hunt. Don't imagine too many people drive 2,000 miles just to putz around on ATV's for a week.

You also have the outfitted guided folks which I would imagine skew nonres and would drive up the harvest stats.

 

[Newtosavage]

Remember - No matter if you're a NR , Res, newbie or experienced - Luck favors preparation.

Or just going with someone who is well prepared. LOL

 

[a_noob_hunter]

I've heard a lot of people say that "killing elk is easy........finding them is the hard part". But I completely disagree. I've never had any issues finding elk, but for bowhunting......everything has to come together to get that shot opportunity and be able to execute it. And a lot of those things don't necessarily even involve the elk. The swirling wind will kill more opportunities than you can count. The thick timber will give you small windows and only glimpses of elk parts. Branches, twigs, and whatever else will shut down a shot opportunity quickly. They have an uncanny ability of stopping right in the wrong spot. The dry drought ridden ground will sound like you're walking on potato chips. In 2017 I only got to hunt 2.5 days after taking my daughter on her ML hunt (different unit), and was within 50 yards of four different 6x6 bulls on different encounters, and never got a shot opportunity. Some of those things are easier to overcome with a partner that knows what he's doing. He can "guide" or pull the elk in front of the shooter.

Wow 4 times and no shot. That's rough. Me and my brother are going but we've never hunted elk before so I can't realistically expect any success but we will be hunting for a while so that should help us.

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[GregB]

Don't imagine too many people drive 2,000 miles just to putz around on ATV's for a week.

You see quite a few trolling the roads in Idaho.