No Big Game Tags Drawn, is this normal?

[fatlander]

I already did all that and there is still point creep.

Big ships turn slow, amigo


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[Ralphie]

What made the OP want to start hunting (SM, R3, YouTube podcasts etc). Is the same thing that makes tags hard to draw. Plus just look at this thread. All you guys posting about and advocating for all the lesser known opportunities, drawing strategies, gohunt, draw odds, applying all over the west are also part of the problem.

We aren’t supposed to post unit info but plenty of you are happy to tell people the best places for hunters to move to. You move somewhere cool and can’t wait to tell the world how good you have it.

The influencers have skimmed all the cream and now they are going after everything thing else. Now they have to recruit their friends and camera guys to draw tags. Even the “meat” hunts some of you are talking about are getting hard to draw.(because Randy and many of you talk about them)

 

[Tick]

Yes, for deer, antelope, and elk. Unless you want to hunt low success units and fight crowds of other hunters. Look to private land opportunities.

 

[Dos Perros]

Big ships turn slow, amigo


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Well in the meantime I'll just also keep doing what I'm doing (drawing tags). And you can too!

 

[NMJM]

This is what happens when demand is greater than supply. It looks like it will only get worse. The only way it will improve is if we increase supply. I would love to see the feds and states look into purchasing more land for public use. Imagine all the prime real estate they could open up with just 10% of what the US spends on foreign aid every year. Also if you care about having public land and hunting join a conservation group. Just make sure most of the money is going towards conservation.

 

[Mojave]

You have to pick your battles, and have the funds to make it work.

I don't currently live in the USA. But I still am playing the points game in 3 western states.

I moved overseas in 2023. I will maintain these points programs until I return.

Idaho and New Mexico do not have points programs, neither does Alaska.

I'd say have a plan.

I get 26 days of vacation and 13 days of "sick" leave to hunt a year. So my situation is pretty good for that.

When I was stateside in my home state of New Mexico I put in for all species. I drew 3 tags, the first year in 2019, zero tags in 2020, zero tags in 2021, a Coues tag in 2022, and no tags in 2023. I moved to Germany in 2023.

I put in for antelope in units I had "enough" points for in Wyoming and didn't draw 3 years in a row in units I had enough points for and finally drew in a unit I had 3 extra points in barely drawing. Never drawn a deer or elk tag in Wyoming on a random.


Never drawn any tag in Utah.

Never drawn any tags in Arizona.

Never drawn any tags in Colorado

Never drawn a tag in Montana.

Never drawn a tag in North Dakota or South Dakota. South Dakota deleted all my points when they changed their system.

Drew some tags in eastern states, had sub par hunts.

 

[cnelk]

Well in the meantime I'll just also keep doing what I'm doing (drawing tags). And you can too!

So if you keep drawing tags, where does your Point Creep statement fit in?

 

[Braaap]

OP, get used to not drawing in NV as a resident. Too much demand and not enough supply. NV manages for quality not quantity so there’s really not a lot of tags to go around. Meet a rancher and fill your freezer with beef and then hunt for the experience when you maybe draw every few years.

 

[Pacific_Fork]

So if you keep drawing tags, where does your Point Creep statement fit in?

Some people are just born contrarian, no matter what.

It’s good we are seeing more and more hunters coming to the realization and influencers and hunting social media are taking from us for the sake of money and fame. What good is winning at the ballot box if we have no where to hunt? There won’t be motivation. Current hunters that are doing it for the right reasons (not fame or money) need to get off the couch and vote/work hard on habitat, access, and predator management. In the meantime educate others why they shouldn’t buy from companies pushing R3 and using dead animals to sell their product. I love influencers who talk about the biology and habitat work/success like Robby often does, need more of that and less of “how to apply”

While I do have two elk tags and deer tags in my pocket it’s just a matter of a few short years I will have less. Used to have a lot more options prior to 2017. Im just lucky to live in the west.

 

[Dos Perros]

So if you keep drawing tags, where does your Point Creep statement fit in?

I tend to apply for more tags, or change the hunts I'm applying for.

I also adjust for other impacts, like winter kill/tag allotments, busy family fall schedules, in-state hunts, work, etc.

 

[Macintosh]

To be fair, “pushing R3” being problematic looks 180 degrees opposite in the east and west. Western states seeing increasing populations and increasing demand. Eastern states seeing plummeting license sales over time, and many places so many deer they are literally destroying their own habitat from overbrowsing. The east and midwest has all the deer and is losing hunters and actually probably needs that R3, the rockies and west has increasing hunters and decreasing wildlife populations and maybe its problematic. Please just be careful painting with too broad of a brush.

 

[Netherman]

To be fair, “pushing R3” being problematic looks 180 degrees opposite in the east and west. Western states seeing increasing populations and increasing demand. Eastern states seeing plummeting license sales over time, and many places so many deer they are literally destroying their own habitat from overbrowsing. The east and midwest has all the deer and is losing hunters and actually probably needs that R3, the rockies and west has increasing hunters and decreasing wildlife populations and maybe its problematic. Please just be careful painting with too broad of a brush.

Different farm, same pig. The west needs animals and the east needs access. R3 isn't helping with either. With the rise of leasing you might see 1 hunter per 100 acre only on private and 50 hunters per 100 acre on public. I suspect you know where the deer are destroying their habitat in that scenario.

 

[saskhunter]

Is this the artist formerly known as @AntelopeEater from HT?

If so, didn't you draw a good Nevada antelope tag last year? I'd say every other year is a pretty good batting average.

I average draw tags every other year in my home Province. Some years I draw everything, others I draw nothing.

 

[Macintosh]

Different farm, same pig. The west needs animals and the east needs access. R3 isn't helping with either. With the rise of leasing you might see 1 hunter per 100 acre only on private and 50 hunters per 100 acre on public. I suspect you know where the deer are destroying their habitat in that scenario.

Not where I live, millions of acres, tens of thousands very close, and very few hunters on public. Other areas Im sure you’re right. Regardless, the point stands—be careful painting with too broad of a brush, these things dont look the same everywhere.

 

[fatlander]

Not where I live, millions of acres, tens of thousands very close, and very few hunters on public. Other areas Im sure you’re right. Regardless, the point stands—be careful painting with too broad of a brush, these things dont look the same everywhere.

Do tell, I’d love to come help thin the deer on the endlessly unhunted public dirt. I bet the op would too. He doesn’t have any tags.


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[Macintosh]

pms welcomed, happy to even share spots. Just be forewarned, Northern new england and Northern NY doesnt look an awful lot like Nevada and the skeeters are a lot worse. Also the elk and antelope hunting is terrible.

 

[roadrunner]

That’s the route of the issue at hand though.

Demand has outpaced, and is continuing to outpace, supply. The incessant need of profiteers to promote hunting to grow their customer base is further perpetuating the increase in demand.

I don’t see how that’s difficult for anyone to see.


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There never has been an equilibrium point between supply and demand because it doesn't apply.

 

[fatlander]

There never has been an equilibrium point between supply and demand because it doesn't apply.

Demand was pretty static until #witnessme entered the chat.

Supply hasn’t increased in that amount of time. Winter kill has decreased supply.

The only thing growing is "the industry".

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[tboltz34]

Hmmm...I would argue that people aren't drawing tags because they don't have a basic understanding of how draws work. Rokslide gets inundated with questions about the various draws at certain times of year. Jay Scott does a good job of going through each state's draw mechanics and explaining how they do things. That's helpful. GoHunt is also very useful but I think with the caveat it still helps to know the draw mechanics so you can make proper use of the data. It is very nice for identifying draw trends, so you can factor in some sort of predictive odds (predict any creep, for example).

But then I haven't seen anyone explain the calculations behind multiple applications...how to apply to be assured a tag. That's where the probability statistics come in. I tend to focus on calculating my odds of drawing zero tags, so then I can know my odds of drawing at least one tag. As I mentioned before I've had at least one tag every year since 2015 so I feel confident in my process, and if anyone else did something similar to me they could expect similar results.

I do the same thing. I calculate odds of not drawing a tag and subtracting it from one so I know the odds of drawing one or more tags. For example (using GoHunt odds), I have/had a 29% chance of drawing Montana antelope, 3.1% chance of drawing Arizona elk, and 3.4% chance of drawing New Mexico barbary sheep. My odds of drawing one or more of these tags are 33.5%=1-(1-0.29)*(1-0.031)*(1-0.034). I actually applied for more than just these tags and my overall draw odds for drawing one or more tags was 41.1%, with only Montana antelope to go. So far I have draw zero of these tags besides the Colorado elk tag that was guaranteed with 3 points.

Lastly, these odds do not incorporate point creep, but like Dos Perros mentioned, you can try to predict the trend by using past draw recaps and data from GoHunt.

 

[manitou1]

Why would a guy in the West want to come to the Midwest or especially the east to hunt whitetails unless they are looking for a trophy whitetail. Think about the "upper west/western midwest" parts of ID, MT,ND,SD,WY,NE,CO,KS...I'm sorry but the overall whitetail hunting is better imo and easier than coming further east into the central midwest or east where it is more heavily timbered with less and less public land essentially as you move east. And in many of those states guys aren't getting denied tags if they just want to hunt. Now go back to wanting a Trophy. In reality, (I know big bucks get killed "everywhere", Your list of states gets limited pretty quick, basically IA, IL, MO are known to the masses because of media.

I think the OPs problem and many peoples' (especially new hunters) is YES the "norm" is changing AND they don't understand draws and still essentially complain about not drawing "desired" tags and also not realize 2nd choices are now "desired".
Also, in general if a guy is just looking to get some meat the states around the ones listed have plenty of opportunity to just get a tag when you add in cow or doe tags.

I hunt elk, antelope and mulies here, but I go back East to hunt whitetails for the tranquility and to avoid the zoo here...