No Big Game Tags Drawn, is this normal?

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Maybe people will start figuring out ‘why’ they aren’t drawing tags.
Your YouTube and Podcast boys ain’t helping you.

I'm not sure who this was aimed at, but there are some very good resources out there. Probably have to wade through some bullshit to find it.

Also, a basic understanding of probability statistics doesn't hurt.
 

fatlander

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I'm not sure who this was aimed at, but there are some very good resources out there. Probably have to wade through some bullshit to find it.

Also, a basic understanding of probability statistics doesn't hurt.

I think [mention]cnelk [/mention]was implying that anyone talking about hunting on a podcast, specifically western big game hunting, isn’t doing anything but further perpetuating the decline of draw odds.


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I think [mention]cnelk [/mention]was implying that anyone talking about hunting on a podcast, specifically western big game hunting, isn’t doing anything but further perpetuating the decline of draw odds.


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Wait...he believes they don't do anything but that? No useful information offered?

I find they likely do both.
 

fatlander

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Wait...he believes they don't do anything but that? No useful information offered?

I find they likely do both.

In the context of his statement “Maybe people will start to realize why they aren’t drawing tags.”

And the basis of this thread, adult onset hunter not drawing tags. . .

I agree with him.


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HONEYBADGER

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You can thank all these data services pimping hunting to make money. They have convinced everyone to "apply apply apply". That combined with the falsehood shared by game agencies for decades that hunter numbers were on the decline and we needed to recruit more, and the decline in western big game populations has resulted in what you just learned.

Yes there will be years when you draw nothing. All the research you did was also done by thousands of other people and you were all drinking from the same well so to speak. There are no secrets anymore.
 
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In the context of his statement “Maybe people will start to realize why they aren’t drawing tags.”

And the basis of this thread, adult onset hunter not drawing tags. . .

I agree with him.


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Hmmm...I would argue that people aren't drawing tags because they don't have a basic understanding of how draws work. Rokslide gets inundated with questions about the various draws at certain times of year. Jay Scott does a good job of going through each state's draw mechanics and explaining how they do things. That's helpful. GoHunt is also very useful but I think with the caveat it still helps to know the draw mechanics so you can make proper use of the data. It is very nice for identifying draw trends, so you can factor in some sort of predictive odds (predict any creep, for example).

But then I haven't seen anyone explain the calculations behind multiple applications...how to apply to be assured a tag. That's where the probability statistics come in. I tend to focus on calculating my odds of drawing zero tags, so then I can know my odds of drawing at least one tag. As I mentioned before I've had at least one tag every year since 2015 so I feel confident in my process, and if anyone else did something similar to me they could expect similar results.
 

fatlander

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Hmmm...I would argue that people aren't drawing tags because they don't have a basic understanding of how draws work. Rokslide gets inundated with questions about the various draws at certain times of year. Jay Scott does a good job of going through each state's draw mechanics and explaining how they do things. That's helpful. GoHunt is also very useful but I think with the caveat it still helps to know the draw mechanics so you can make proper use of the data. It is very nice for identifying draw trends, so you can factor in some sort of predictive odds (predict any creep, for example).

But then I haven't seen anyone explain the calculations behind multiple applications...how to apply to be assured a tag. That's where the probability statistics come in. I tend to focus on calculating my odds of drawing zero tags, so then I can know my odds of drawing at least one tag. As I mentioned before I've had at least one tag every year since 2015 so I feel confident in my process, and if anyone else did something similar to me they could expect similar results.

Uh. . . point creep, anyone?

That’s why people aren’t drawing tags. Demand is outpacing supply. What’s increasing demand?


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fatlander

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If people don't factor in creep that's on them, not anyone else.

That’s the route of the issue at hand though.

Demand has outpaced, and is continuing to outpace, supply. The incessant need of profiteers to promote hunting to grow their customer base is further perpetuating the increase in demand.

I don’t see how that’s difficult for anyone to see.


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Hmmm...I would argue that people aren't drawing tags because they don't have a basic understanding of how draws work. Rokslide gets inundated with questions about the various draws at certain times of year. Jay Scott does a good job of going through each state's draw mechanics and explaining how they do things. That's helpful. GoHunt is also very useful but I think with the caveat it still helps to know the draw mechanics so you can make proper use of the data. It is very nice for identifying draw trends, so you can factor in some sort of predictive odds (predict any creep, for example).

But then I haven't seen anyone explain the calculations behind multiple applications...how to apply to be assured a tag. That's where the probability statistics come in. I tend to focus on calculating my odds of drawing zero tags, so then I can know my odds of drawing at least one tag. As I mentioned before I've had at least one tag every year since 2015 so I feel confident in my process, and if anyone else did something similar to me they could expect similar results.

To do a true probability, you would quickly find out that your best chance is early in the process and gets worse as it progresses.

Many people reject the idea that it's all really just plain dumb luck...
 

406life

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View attachment 726067

That category is going to look very, very different even just a few years from now. Probably a lot like the above
WY antelope have been struggling for past handful of years, but with a few good winters their high fecundity will bounce them right back. These would be the outliers in the "Betty Crocker slam." Still, if you HAVE to have antelope does, there are units with leftovers in WY each year.

However, if you want meat elk and deer can be had with a plethora of OTC opps.
 
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That’s the route of the issue at hand though.

Demand has outpaced, and is continuing to outpace, supply. The incessant need of profiteers to promote hunting to grow their customer base is further perpetuating the increase in demand.

I don’t see how that’s difficult for anyone to see.


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Is there anything actionable in this perspective? What can you do about it? This is not a rhetorical question, I'd love to hear your answer to it.

I observe, I think, I adjust.
 

Weldor

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Perfectly normal here in AZ. you can go many years without drawing a tag. Max bonus points somewhere around 31 and people still don't draw.
 

fatlander

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Is there anything actionable in this perspective? What can you do about it? This is not a rhetorical question, I'd love to hear your answer to it.

I observe, I think, I adjust.

Stop following the worst perpetrators.
Stop consuming the content that’s designed to increase demand.
Get involved in your own state’s game and fish agencies public process and decry R3 initiatives.
Donate money to organizations that don’t promote R3.
Tell your friends.


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ORJoe

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Nope. There's almost literally every state, east of the Mississippi to fill your freezer with Whitetail.

I don't know why hunting only seems to be a one way migration from east to west. There is a BUTT load of fantastic public land, OTC options in the Midwest, South & Southeast. Almost all of it is OTC for non residents & chances are, it's barely more expensive than most westerners are paying for resident tags. You may not be able to put 400lb of elk in the freezer, but in a decent week of TN whitetail, I can still get 400lb of venison.
In a couple of decades on the internet, this is the first time I've seen these words in this order.
As somebody who has never hunted East of the Snake River, my impression of hunting in the Eastern US is that if you don't know someone who has 40 acres and more deer than he knows what to do with, you're not going to have a good time. I bet a lot of people have that impression, and right or wrong, that drives the decision to not go back East and not bother researching it more.

Besides, it would cost about $1,000 in gas to drive there and back for a chance at a bunch of venison. Or I can take that $1000 to the grocery store and fill my freeze with steaks on easy mode.
That works going East to West because even if you strike out on elk, you're hanging out in the vacation destination Rocky Mountains.
 

fatlander

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In a couple of decades on the internet, this is the first time I've seen these words in this order.
As somebody who has never hunted East of the Snake River, my impression of hunting in the Eastern US is that if you don't know someone who has 40 acres and more deer than he knows what to do with, you're not going to have a good time. I bet a lot of people have that impression, and right or wrong, that drives the decision to not go back East and not bother researching it more.

Besides, it would cost about $1,000 in gas to drive there and back for a chance at a bunch of venison. Or I can take that $1000 to the grocery store and fill my freeze with steaks on easy mode.
That works going East to West because even if you strike out on elk, you're hanging out in the vacation destination Rocky Mountains.

Killing deer is easy in the east.

Getting a peaceful, quiet, uninterrupted week of pure nature isn’t.


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cnelk

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Stop following the worst perpetrators.
Stop consuming the content that’s designed to increase demand.
Get involved in your own state’s game and fish agencies public process and decry R3 initiatives.
Donate money to organizations that don’t promote R3.
Tell your friends.

BingEffinGo!
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2015
Messages
5,965
Location
Lenexa, KS
Stop following the worst perpetrators.
Stop consuming the content that’s designed to increase demand.
Get involved in your own state’s game and fish agencies public process and decry R3 initiatives.
Donate money to organizations that don’t promote R3.
Tell your friends.


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I already did all that and there is still point creep. :unsure:
 
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