fatlander
WKR
- Joined
- Feb 11, 2016
- Messages
- 2,160
I already did all that and there is still point creep.
Big ships turn slow, amigo
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I already did all that and there is still point creep.
Big ships turn slow, amigo
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well in the meantime I'll just also keep doing what I'm doing (drawing tags). And you can too!
Some people are just born contrarian, no matter what.So if you keep drawing tags, where does your Point Creep statement fit in?
So if you keep drawing tags, where does your Point Creep statement fit in?
Different farm, same pig. The west needs animals and the east needs access. R3 isn't helping with either. With the rise of leasing you might see 1 hunter per 100 acre only on private and 50 hunters per 100 acre on public. I suspect you know where the deer are destroying their habitat in that scenario.To be fair, “pushing R3” being problematic looks 180 degrees opposite in the east and west. Western states seeing increasing populations and increasing demand. Eastern states seeing plummeting license sales over time, and many places so many deer they are literally destroying their own habitat from overbrowsing. The east and midwest has all the deer and is losing hunters and actually probably needs that R3, the rockies and west has increasing hunters and decreasing wildlife populations and maybe its problematic. Please just be careful painting with too broad of a brush.
Not where I live, millions of acres, tens of thousands very close, and very few hunters on public. Other areas Im sure you’re right. Regardless, the point stands—be careful painting with too broad of a brush, these things dont look the same everywhere.Different farm, same pig. The west needs animals and the east needs access. R3 isn't helping with either. With the rise of leasing you might see 1 hunter per 100 acre only on private and 50 hunters per 100 acre on public. I suspect you know where the deer are destroying their habitat in that scenario.
Not where I live, millions of acres, tens of thousands very close, and very few hunters on public. Other areas Im sure you’re right. Regardless, the point stands—be careful painting with too broad of a brush, these things dont look the same everywhere.
That’s the route of the issue at hand though.
Demand has outpaced, and is continuing to outpace, supply. The incessant need of profiteers to promote hunting to grow their customer base is further perpetuating the increase in demand.
I don’t see how that’s difficult for anyone to see.
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There never has been an equilibrium point between supply and demand because it doesn't apply.
I do the same thing. I calculate odds of not drawing a tag and subtracting it from one so I know the odds of drawing one or more tags. For example (using GoHunt odds), I have/had a 29% chance of drawing Montana antelope, 3.1% chance of drawing Arizona elk, and 3.4% chance of drawing New Mexico barbary sheep. My odds of drawing one or more of these tags are 33.5%=1-(1-0.29)*(1-0.031)*(1-0.034). I actually applied for more than just these tags and my overall draw odds for drawing one or more tags was 41.1%, with only Montana antelope to go. So far I have draw zero of these tags besides the Colorado elk tag that was guaranteed with 3 points.Hmmm...I would argue that people aren't drawing tags because they don't have a basic understanding of how draws work. Rokslide gets inundated with questions about the various draws at certain times of year. Jay Scott does a good job of going through each state's draw mechanics and explaining how they do things. That's helpful. GoHunt is also very useful but I think with the caveat it still helps to know the draw mechanics so you can make proper use of the data. It is very nice for identifying draw trends, so you can factor in some sort of predictive odds (predict any creep, for example).
But then I haven't seen anyone explain the calculations behind multiple applications...how to apply to be assured a tag. That's where the probability statistics come in. I tend to focus on calculating my odds of drawing zero tags, so then I can know my odds of drawing at least one tag. As I mentioned before I've had at least one tag every year since 2015 so I feel confident in my process, and if anyone else did something similar to me they could expect similar results.
I hunt elk, antelope and mulies here, but I go back East to hunt whitetails for the tranquility and to avoid the zoo here...Why would a guy in the West want to come to the Midwest or especially the east to hunt whitetails unless they are looking for a trophy whitetail. Think about the "upper west/western midwest" parts of ID, MT,ND,SD,WY,NE,CO,KS...I'm sorry but the overall whitetail hunting is better imo and easier than coming further east into the central midwest or east where it is more heavily timbered with less and less public land essentially as you move east. And in many of those states guys aren't getting denied tags if they just want to hunt. Now go back to wanting a Trophy. In reality, (I know big bucks get killed "everywhere", Your list of states gets limited pretty quick, basically IA, IL, MO are known to the masses because of media.
I think the OPs problem and many peoples' (especially new hunters) is YES the "norm" is changing AND they don't understand draws and still essentially complain about not drawing "desired" tags and also not realize 2nd choices are now "desired".
Also, in general if a guy is just looking to get some meat the states around the ones listed have plenty of opportunity to just get a tag when you add in cow or doe tags.